The Pants Predicts: Iowa vs Indiana

The Hawkeyes opened up Big Ten play on the road with a win at Rutgers and now return to Iowa City for a homecoming matchup against the #11 Indiana Hoosiers. Iowa opened at +3.5 but has seen that line move all the way to +7.5 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 48.5 total points. That gives us an implied final score of Indiana 28, Iowa 20.5 according to the folks out in the desert.

Here at The Pants, we’re equally as pessimistic. Not a one of our staff members is on Iowa to win outright. In fact, we’re all on IU giving the points. On average, we’re calling for a final score of Indiana 31, Iowa 19. Not a ton of faith in Phil stopping this Hoosier offense or in Lester and Gronowski keeping up. We’re also on the over here.

As a quick reminder, we’re 3-5 on the season after taking Iowa with the points last week but missing on the over/under. Hopefully we pick up another L this week and the Hawkeyes can prove us wrong.

Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Iowa’s homecoming matchup with IU.

JPinIC

The good news? I am feeling better about this offense. Mark Gronowski is starting to come into his own and settle in as a passer. The receiver group is still on a roller coaster ride, but the scheme is getting guys open and there are certainly greenshoots in the passing game. That helps unload the box and Gronowski’s legs have been tremendous so far.

The bad news? I don’t know that it matters. Indiana looked unstoppable in their drubbing of Illinois and that offense seems like it’s going to force Iowa to play at a pace they just aren’t comfortable in order to keep up.

I don’t know exactly what to make of IU. I think their reality is somewhere between what we saw in the big win over Illinois and what they showed in their season-opener struggles against Old Dominion. But I believe the offense is legit and constructed in a way that will give Iowa’s secondary issues. I expect them to move the ball and score. If they get a lead, I struggle seeing Iowa being able to keep up once pushed off their spot.

I’d love to say this is one of those outlier games where Kirk and Phil pull a rabbit out of their hat, and that is a possibility, but I expect it to go south early and never really come back.

Indiana 31, Iowa 20

GingerHawk

Iowa made strides against Rutgers as far as the offense is concerned and that’s reason for optimism moving forward. The bad news is that against IU they may need to make a quantum leap. Thinking back to last week I’m still not quite sure if the Hoosiers are just that good or if Illinois just wasn’t deserving to be ranked as high as they were. But the question is really moot as putting up 63 points against any D1 school is mighty impressive.

The Hawks need to bring their best on Saturday and not let up. If they have any sort of lead at any point they cannot turtle, IU is just too dangerous for any lead to be safe. The opportunity is there for Iowa to get its first ranked win since 2021 but I think Indiana is built in a way that Iowa just can’t compete with.

Indiana 34, Iowa 23

Matt Reisener

Based on how Iowa and Indiana have looked through the first four games of the season, this game really shouldn’t be close. The Hoosiers look every bit as good as they did last year when they emerged as a surprise playoff team, and have arguably upgraded their roster talent thanks to an improved offensive line and the stellar play of transfer QB Fernando Mendoza. Iowa’s defensive backs will have their hands full trying to cover Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., and the Hawkeyes’ struggles to contain Rutgers’ receivers last week did little to inspire confidence. Iowa can hardly sell out to defend the pass either, as Indiana is averaging the third-most rushing yards in the country per-game this season. Meanwhile, the Hoosier pass rush has already racked up 15 sacks this season, including a whopping seven sacks against Illinois last week in their 63-10 beatdown over the 9th-ranked Illini. Mark Gronowski has been prone to indecision in the pocket at times this season, but the Hoosier defense is built to punish opposing QBs who hesitate or a hold the ball too long.

Yet Iowa fans have seen this script play out countless times before. Indiana enters this matchup riding high on a signature win and looking ahead to its upcoming matchup against Oregon next week; a perfect recipe for overlooking an Iowa squad that will have 70,000 Hawkeye fans at their back to witness their team’s first home game against a ranked opponent in almost three calendar years. Phil Parker has made a career out of stifling offenses like Indiana’s in marquee home games (Google him!), and Iowa’s defense seems due for a rash of takeaways after forcing only one turnover through the first four games.

For Iowa to have a shot in this game, the Hawkeyes will need to win the line of scrimmage on both ends of the field, find a way to solve Indiana’s dynamic RPO attack, and get the best game of the season from Gronowski. The QB run game could be particularly impactful for Iowa in this matchup, as Indiana surrendered 179 rushing yards to Old Dominion’s quarterback in its season opener. The smart money says Indiana should win this one by 10+ points. But don’t be surprised if Iowa keeps things interesting and has a chance to steal the game away late in the contest.

Indiana 27, Iowa 19

mattcabel

We have officially approved in the “prove it” portion of the season for the Hawkeyes when it comes to predicting their success. And when it comes down to it, I just don’t think they’ll prove it this weekend, even if Indiana isn’t quite as good as they may seem at the moment. Prove me wrong, Hawks!

Indiana 34, Iowa 17

Greg Hollingsworth

I think last weeks win over Rutgers showed that this Iowa team is starting to find it’s stride. Sadly for this week, Indiana’s complete and utter dismantling of Illinois proved that they have already hit full stride and are running with the lead pack in the B18. They are balanced and explosive on offense, aggressive and swarming on defense, and pretty solid on special teams.

Iowa has a path to victory, sure, but it’s an exceptionally narrow path up the side of a very steep mountain where one wrong step could lead to disaster. Basically, they need a game like Indiana had last week, where everything goes right for them, and very little goes right for their opponent. I don’t think the Hoosiers will blow the Hawks out of their building, but I don’t have a high degree of confidence that Iowa can pull this one off.

Indiana 31, Iowa 17

Consensus: Indiana 31, Iowa 19

So there you have it - no upsets in Iowa City and plenty of frustrated Hawkeye fans.

How about you? Let’s hear those predictions!