Game Preview: Buffs host BYU Cougars

The Buffs are back under the lights this Saturday night for an 8:15 PM kickoff at Folsom Field, welcoming a familiar face in the undefeated #25 BYU Cougars. It’s a rematch of last year’s Alamo Bowl, where BYU outmuscled Colorado 36 to 14 and handed the Buffs a tough end to their historic season. This time, the stakes are a little different, as the Buffs have a chance to reset the tone in conference play and protect home turf.

Colorado comes in at 2–2 overall and 0–1 in the Big 12, still looking to find rhythm on both sides of the ball. BYU, meanwhile, is 3–0 and hasn’t played a conference opponent yet, but they’ve looked sharp and should be fired up to show they belong near the top of the league.

There’s no doubt the Buffs need to clean some things up if they want to make a real push in this conference. This game won’t decide the season, but it might set the tone for where things go from here.

This week, it starts with quarterback Kaidon Salter.

At this point, it’s clearly Salter’s show to run. Through four games, he leads Colorado in every major offensive category: passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He’s the guy everything runs through, and how far the Buffs go might just depend on how far he can take them.

In three starts, Salter put up 565 yards and four touchdowns through the air, plus 176 yards and three more scores on the ground. He’s brought a legit dual-threat presence and backed it up with production. PFF even has him as the highest graded player on the offense so far.

The advanced numbers tell a pretty interesting story too. On a 0 to 100 scale, Salter’s graded at an 84 when blitzed, which is even better than his clean pocket grade of 82. That tells you he’s seeing pressure well, making quick decisions, and taking advantage of space when defenses send extra guys. That’ll be especially important this week, as BYU looks as though they have one of the nation’s best defenses. Salter will need to show he can keep his cool while under pressure against the Cougs.

That said, Salter hasn’t been perfect. The Georgia Tech game saw him miss some key throws that likely cost Colorado the win. And that was really the fuel for the QB chatter that followed. But give him credit, as he cleaned up a lot against Wyoming and looked way more comfortable.

This week is about continuing that trend. If Salter stays steady and the run game starts to complement him a little more, this offense may be able to hang with just about anyone in the conference.

While the offense is coming along, the defense still has the most to prove.

It’s been up and down through four games. Some guys are making plays, with Martavius French and Tawfiq Byard have both been flying around, and the pass rush has shown flashes. Overall, too many teams are staying ahead of schedule and grinding the Buffs down over four quarters. The problem is usually early downs and opponents are picking up easy yards and keeping the playbook wide open.

In the secondary, there’s still a lot of figuring out to do. DJ McKinney’s holding it down on one side, but the opposite corner has raised major questions. Makari Vickers has seen more snaps lately, but is still adjusting to moving over from safety. Preston Hodge has had his moments in the slot, but penalties and missed reads have popped up too often, costing Colorado in big moments.

The Buffs also stay in nickel almost all the time, even when teams go heavy. That’s made it tough to control the line and stop the run consistently. At some point, it might be worth going a little bigger by adding an extra linebacker and rushing more than four on early in drives to try and get the defense off the field.

Heading into BYU, it feels like a chance to hit reset. The Cougs have a true freshman quarterback in Bear Bachmeier, who hasn’t played a team as good as CU thus far this season. If Colorado can throw out some looks that confuse Bachmeier and string together a few stops early, everything on that side of the ball starts to feel a bit better and more comfortable.

BYU’s identity this season is built around LJ Martin, a steady, downhill back who’s averaging 8.6 yards per carry on 40 attempts. Martin is a big reason why BYU ranks among the top in early down success. He’s complemented by a rotation of backs, including Sione Moa, and a quarterback who can run in Bachmeier, who has four rushing touchdowns himself. The Cougars run game looks to be productive, not explosive. That way, it always keeps them in front of the sticks and sets up what they really want to do: play action.

That’s where BYU becomes dangerous. Over a third of their pass attempts have come off play fakes, and they are drastically more efficient when doing so, averaging 12.4 yards per attempt with play action, compared to only 5.7 yards without. If Colorado can bottle up the run early, they may be able to take away lots of options for BYU and force Bachmeier to beat them with straight dropbacks, which is something he hasn’t had to do much of yet.

On defense for BYU, it all starts with edge pressure. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker and EDGE Jack Kelly are BYU’s top two defenders and the engine of their pass rush. Glasker leads the team with a 93.0 pass rush grade, while Kelly has three sacks and four quarterback hits in three games. Together, they’ve been consistently disruptive and have been a nightmare in opponent’s backfields. Behind them, BYU doesn’t have overwhelming depth. If the Buffs can stay out of third-and-long and push tempo, they might be able to wear them down over four quarters.

If Colorado wants a shot to steal this one, it’s going to come down to first down defense and keeping the play action game in check.

The Buffs are still building. I think this will be competitive, but I don’t see them pulling it out. BYU does a lot of things well, like generating pressure of the edge and getting defenses to bite on play action, both of which Colorado has struggled to stop. They run to set up play action, they can hurt you with QB keepers, and they get after the quarterback on defense. That’s a tough formula when you’re still trying to put the pieces together.

Buffs keep it close, but fall short.

Colorado 23

BYU 30