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College football betting, picks, odds: Biggest Week 4 storylines, early best bet for Auburn-Oklahoma

Being a “mover” or a “shaker” on any given week doesn’t mean you’re impervious to crashing back to Earth. In fact, that’s a key element in sports betting: Realizing that a team is never as good as its highest point or as bad as its lowest point.

Last week, South Florida couldn’t match up with Miami to give it a third “shake-up” win of the season, and even if 17 points seems like a big number, context matters in sports betting, and sussing out a tough spot was the key to a winning ticket. The Bulls will regroup for conference play, needing to win the American Conference for a chance to still punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff.

Elsewhere, dark-horse candidates made their presence felt, while a trio of big-name schools took their second loss before the mid-point of September.

Movers

Vanderbilt consolidated a mini-upset at Virginia Tech (who pink-slipped head coach Brent Pry on Sunday) by going on the road to knock off South Carolina. More impressive than winning as a 3-point underdog in Columbia was the Commodores doing so despite a significant boost in their betting market power rating. Onwards and upwards for Vandy, as we haven’t found the Commodores' ceiling just yet.

Like Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech was an upset-maker last season, but at a certain point you have to acknowledge that both teams are just good at football. The Yellow Jackets also won as 3-point ‘dogs, but that short of a line (having dropped from Clemson -8.5 this summer) may have had more to do with a souring on Clemson, who, with a second loss are teetering on the brink of a lost season. Given how many prognosticators pointed at the Tigers as a potential juggernaut, we may not have found their floor.

At the top tier of the national ratings, Georgia won a dogfight over Tennessee in Knoxville in arguably the game of the year so far this season. While there’s not much room for Georgia to move up in market ratings, a confirmation that the Dawgs are a contender is a notable takeaway.

Shakers

Another contender for “game of the season” was submitted hours after Georgia-Tennessee, when Texas A&M shook up Notre Dame. The Irish’s national title hopes are now on life support as they’ll need to run the table, and hope the Aggies and Hurricanes also excel the rest of the way. Meanwhile, we continue to parse through who the real contenders are in the SEC, and Texas A&M is officially on that list. Plus, QB Marcel Reed is now thoroughly in the mix for the Heisman Trophy.

Amongst the Group of Five, Southern Miss put the Sun Belt on notice in opening its conference slate with a big win over Appalachian State. As we start to see more league matchups hit the schedule, it’s a reminder that each cohort has its own relative level of what’s considered a shake up.

While ESPN's College Game Day is going to Miami anyway, by rule (one I just made up), a 1-2 team on the road against a ranked team doesn’t qualify as one of our big games. Or maybe we’re just bitter that it’s the first of our summer "Game of the Year" bets where we didn’t get the best of the line this summer. Either way, Florida’s second loss puts them in a category with Notre Dame and Clemson, even if less was expected of the Gators this season because of how many land mines were on their schedule.

Betting the big games for Week 4

No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (-3.5, 57.5)

Speaking of conference season getting cranked up, while the Big 12 opened their league slate in mid-August in Ireland (as one does), the meaty part begins with the two betting favorites squaring off in Salt Lake City.

Though Utah just showed up to the Big 12, the Utes represent the venerable, annual conference contender (even if it was a different one), while Texas Tech’s much-publicized splurge in the transfer portal has it positioned as the “new money” option.

As is their habit, the Red Raiders haven’t even tried to test themselves in the non-conference, so much of their rating is based on their offseason acquisitions and whaling on bad teams in three games.

A point spread toggling between Utah -3 and -3.5 suggests that Texas Tech might be considered the slightly better team, given what Utah’s home-field advantage should mean at elevation, but I’m more interested in putting my faith in a program with more proven results in high-end games. Especially since going from the inept offenses that Tech has faced to handling Utes QB Devon Dampier might be an even bigger shock to the system than thinner air.

Bet: Utah (shop for -3, at shorter than -120)

No. 21 Michigan (-2.5, 44.5) at Nebraska

I’ll just say it — the Cornhuskers' season-opening win over Cincinnati didn’t do anything for me.

Nebraska mustered just 4.5 yards per play, while getting run-on to the tune of 202 yards by the Bearcats. If you think subsequently crushing Houston Christian and Akron is something to take notice of, that’s a “you” problem.

A short home underdog is often something to be interested in, because usually the road is unfamiliar, even for a program of Michigan’s ilk. However, the Wolverines have already tested themselves in a hostile environment against an Oklahoma team who we hypothesize might end up being a true contender for everything you can possibly contend for.

Until proven otherwise, that’s not Nebraska.

The Wolverines will again be without head coach Shemar Moore, but with all the various mini-suspensions over the last few years, they’ve grown accustomed to winning on infrastructure. They’ll run the ball, and play defense to torment Cornhuskers QB Dylan Raiola, but with three games under his belt, Michigan may be ready to let QB Bryce Underwood loose, knowing that it can’t join the group above with a second loss this early in the season.

Bet: Michigan -2.5

No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (-6.5, 49.5)

Everyone starts the season undefeated, and then teams peel off the list of CFP contenders over the course of the season.

It’s possible neither of these teams are SEC or national contenders, and we never look back at this game as having any importance, but there’s also a universe where this is a massive game between two schools that have found their way back to relevancy.

Beyond the obvious storyline of Auburn QB Jackson Arnold’s return to Norman, the fascination for this game should be that he and Oklahoma QB John Mateer are each tasked with beating each others’ defense on the field.

On the spreadsheet, this line should be a little lower. Auburn rightfully got some credit for going on the road to beat Baylor, but maybe the betting market doesn’t like that the Tigers didn’t cover big numbers over Ball State and South Alabama, especially in conjunction with the Sooners' dismantling of Temple in their own big-spread game last Saturday. None of those walkovers should matter at all when it comes time for a showdown.

We’ll see if this line ticks up to a full seven points, but I doubt it, making +6.5 the likely high point for a game that should come down to the final drive.

Bet: Auburn +6.5

No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (-4.5, 52.5)

“Talk is cheap.”

“Numbers never lie.”

Both axioms don’t apply to the football field, but they can apply to sports betting.

Curt Cignetti is known for being willing to tell you how good he and his teams are, and if that’s what’s inflated this line above -2.5 — where it opened this summer and where I have it projected — then that’s reason enough to back Illinois.

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In the category of “the numbers,” Illinois was regarded highly enough this summer to get an estimated betting market rating higher than it has earned in years. It was enough to make the Illini 3-point road favorites at Duke, giving them a chance to earn their rating. They covered with ease in the second half.

Yet, the line, for this first pinch-point of the Big Ten season, opened over a field goal instead of under it.

In a game where the Hoosiers might not have the better quarterback in Luke Altmyer, or head coach in the considerably quieter Bret Bielema, taking this many points with Illinois is the only way to look.

Bet: Illinois +4.5

You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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