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GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO): A Bull Case Theory

Tue, Sep 16, 2025, 11:56 AM 3 min read

We came across a bullish thesis on GXO Logistics, Inc. on P14 Capital’s. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GXO. GXO Logistics, Inc.'s share was trading at $52.63 as of 5^th September. GXO’s trailing and forward P/E were 103.20 and 16.98, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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GXO Logistics reported a strong 2Q25, delivering $3.3B in revenue (+17.9% Y/Y, a ~$200M beat) and $0.57 NGEPS, modestly above consensus. The company raised guidance twice—first following CMA approval of the Wincanton acquisition, and again with the earnings release—signaling accelerating momentum. Adjusted EBITDA guidance now stands at $865M–$885M, with organic growth expected at 3.5%–6.5%. Business wins reached $307M in 2Q and $535M in 1H25, with a $2.4B pipeline excluding Wincanton, securing ~$800M incremental revenue for FY25.

Wincanton integration begins in 3Q, with ~$40M of $60M targeted cost synergies expected in 2025, and revenue synergies already visible through joint RFP pursuits. Leadership transition is underway, with Patrick Kelleher succeeding Malcolm Wilson as CEO, supported by incoming CFO changes that tilt execution toward faster North American growth. Operations normalized as early-year contract realignment pressures eased, U.K. volumes improved, and aerospace and technology strength supported North America.

Automation, reverse logistics, and centralization continue driving margin expansion, with 2Q25 adjusted EBITDA margins rising ~90 bps Q/Q. Capital allocation was opportunistic, with 5.4M shares repurchased in 1H25 (~4% of outstanding) while leverage held at 3x. Near-term negatives include soft FCF, Wincanton’s small divestiture, and weak CPG trends, but these appear manageable.

P14 projects ~$13.3B FY25 revenue (+13.9% Y/Y), ~7% organic growth, and $896M adjusted EBITDA, above management’s range. Longer term, growth should accelerate through aerospace and defense, healthcare, and ecommerce-driven automation. With ~+31% upside to $69/share in the base case and attractive risk/reward even in bear scenarios, GXO remains well-positioned for rerating.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) by Busy Investor Stock Reports in February 2025, which highlighted strong revenue growth, expanding customer relationships, and efficiency gains from AI-driven warehouse operations despite temporary headwinds. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 34% since our coverage as the thesis played out. The thesis still stands as GXO builds momentum. P14 Capital shares a similar view but emphasizes Wincanton integration and margin expansion.