College Football Analyst Issues Blunt Opinion on Arch Manning

In the larger offseason conversation about college football, it's safe to say that most of what is driving headlines is hyperbolic. With little to go on other than some spring practices and coach quotes from press conferences, the game's pundits are forced to dig a little deeper in their bag to make their points.

One such case is the hype around Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. While there was some promise delivered on the field from the 21-year-old signal-caller, Manning still only attempted 90 passes last season. 

Jay Crain of The Daily Wire's "Crain & Company" brought Manning down a peg, if only to give some credit to other quarterbacks, while calling out the hype machine during a visit with On3's "The Hard Count" with J.D. PicKell.

“I understand how this business works, right?" Crain said. "I mean, controversial hot takes, you know, they're what's going to move the needle, I understand that. Now you know I have some controversial takes, but I think you know when you look at some of these quarterback rankings. People are putting Arch Manning at two, like ahead of guys like (LSU quarterback) Garrett Nussmeier and even ahead of guys like (Texas A&M quarterback) Marcel Reed. It blows my mind."

In a college football quarterback rankings article from ESPN from David Hale, he ranked Manning in his second tier, behind signal-callers like Clemson's Cade Klubnik, Nussmeier, Oklahoma's John Mateer, Penn State's Drew Allar and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers.

"I know why, because his last name is Manning, and none of this is Arch's fault," Crain continued. "Arch just shows up to work, trying to be the best version of himself. So I'm not saying this in any way reflects who Arch Manning is, but to me, you don't have enough information to be able to say (he is the second-best quarterback). It's like we've seen the trailer for the Arch Manning movie. Now, the trailer has been pretty good, but I've seen many good trailers, and the movie ended up falling flat. I've seen some pretty good trailers, and the movie ended up being a hit, grossing hundreds of millions of dollars."

Given the sheer volume of speculation and conversation that follows the sport, Crain is giving a lot of credence to a small segment of voices in the sport, as there are also many analysts who have said they need to see more before they can buy into the hype surrounding Manning.

Another ESPN article ranking the sport's quarterbacks from Adam Rittenberg slotted Manning at No. 12. Pro Football Focus listed Texas as an honorable mention in its list of top 10 quarterback rooms. 247Sports placed Manning at No. 3. So there are examples on both sides of this argument.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16).

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

"I'm not saying he won't be, but to me, when you start putting Arch Manning with what we know now as your number-two or number-one or really, top-five returning quarterbacks through all classes, not newcomers, but through all classes. ... it just reminds me of the guys out in Vegas who have the cups with the ball, and they make you try to figure out which one is in it," Crain said. "I think it's a parlor trick. So will he end up living up to the hype? I hope so for him. It's going to be almost impossible because that's how high the hype train is on him, because his last name is Manning, and he's playing at a place like Texas."

Crain made a fair point, but with there being so many voices out there talking about Manning and all the quarterbacks across the sport, it's possible to find a narrative that hypes up Manning and another that dismisses him. 

Manning is replacing Quinn Ewers at the University of Texas as the latter was drafted in the seventh round of the 2025 NFL draft by the Miami Dolphins.

In limited playing time last year, Manning appeared in 10 games, mostly in mop-up duty. He passed for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He added 108 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

Earlier this offseason, Manning was turning heads with a rebuilt physique, with more time spent in the weight room.

We'll find out how legit Manning and the Longhorns are during this year's college football season, as Texas kicks off the season against the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes at noon ET on Aug. 30.