Ball security headlines Patriots’ X-factors against the Panthers

Having lost two of their first three games this season, the New England Patriots are already under some pressure to perform entering Week 4. While a loss to the Carolina Panthers would not be the end of the world as far as the team’s playoff hopes are concerned, it would put head coach Mike Vrabel and his men in a challenging position heading into a three-game road stretch that starts in Buffalo in Week 5.

So, how do the Patriots avoid entering that portion of their schedule at 1-3? By improving across the board relative to last week’s loss versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, and by being able to come away on top in most of the key areas against a Panthers team that also has just one win under its belt at this point in time.

Football is an inherently complex game, but every now and then it can be quite simple. As simple as: the team that turns the football over five times will usually come out the loser.

The Patriots experienced just that last week against Pittsburgh, when Drake Maye (1 interception, 1 fumble), Rhamondre Stevenson (2 fumbles) and Antonio Gibson (1 fumble) all gave the ball away in what ended up a one-touchdown loss. It goes without saying that that is not a recipe for success regardless of opponent, be it the Steelers or the Panthers this Sunday.

As for the upcoming game against Carolina, it will feature a Panthers defense that has successfully taken the ball away on five occasions — tied for fourth in the NFL through Week 3. Four of those turnovers came in the form of interceptions, with starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson and Chau Smith-Wade catching one apiece, and edge defender D.J. Wonnum hauling in the other. In addition, safety Demani Richardson recovered a fumble.

The Patriots’ issues holding onto the ball were a new problem in Week 3. In the previous two games, one Drake Maye interception in Week 1 was the only giveaway. The problem, from that perspective, does seem like a fixable one.

As Mike Vrabel pointed out this week, however, they are not leaving it up to chance either.

“We just put some more time into it,” he said. “I’m going to remind you that everybody else’s job is to protect the guy with the ball. We’ll have to practice that too, because that wasn’t good enough. Again, the easy thing to say is that we had three players fumble the football, which is obvious. We have to use great technique and then everyone else needs to strain to protect the player with the ball. And that’s what we’re going to get accomplished.”

Perimeter run game: On paper, the Patriots have the right mix to be successful on the ground. They have a mobile quarterback, potent trio of running backs, and a physical offensive line (albeit one that will be without one of its starters). And yet, they are the worst unit in football in terms of expected points added per run play (-0.397) and bottom half in several other categories as well. In order to right the ship versus Carolina, New England will need to steer clear of the Panthers’ defensive strengths. How can they do that? For starters, by identifying standout defensive tackle Derrick Brown and running away from him.

TE Hunter Henry and TE Austin Hooper: Carolina’s pass defense has been solid this year, and quite opportunistic. There are definitive areas that can be attacked, though, and one of them is getting tight ends matched up against linebackers. Through three games, the Panthers have given up an average of six catches and 74 yards per contest to opposing tight ends, meaning that New England’s offense — which incorporated more two-tight end looks the last two weeks — could be trying to get the position group involved early and often.

RG Mike Onwenu and RT Morgan Moses: Unsurprisingly, the Patriots offensive line has had its ups and downs this season. The next challenge awaits on Sunday, with the aforementioned Derrick Brown a major threat along the interior defensive line. Primarily aligning over the offensive right, Brown brings serious strength and violence to the equation, which means that right guard Mike Onwenu and right tackle Morgan Moses need to be on their A-game. That is true for the rest of the line, too: Carolina likes to disguise its looks and run line games, challenging the communication and chemistry up front.

D-line discipline: Milton Williams called Panthers quarterback Bryce Young a “jitterbug” earlier this week due to his combination of small stature and ability to extend plays. While Young’s passing has been inconsistent so. far this season, his dual-threat skills are well documented and will put pressure on Williams and company to control their gaps and not allow any escape lanes to open up.

LB2: Robert Spillane played his best game of the season against the Steelers, registering a team-leading 15 tackles as well as an interception. While the 29-year-old has yet to prove his consistency, his position in the Patriots’ defensive lineup is set in stone. The same cannot be said about the spot alongside him. Originally held by Christian Elliss to open the season, the team decided to bench him early during last week’s game; missed tackles continue to be a problem for Elliss. Whether he returns to the lineup or not, the team needs better from its No. 2 linebacker.

CB Christian Gonzalez: Two months after injuring his hamstring in practice, Christian Gonzalez is set to make his season debut on Sunday. If so, he should be expected to see plenty of snaps facing off against Carolina’s No. 1 wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan. A first-round draft pick earlier this year, McMillan is a big-bodied pass catcher capable of gaining yards after the catch. Under normal circumstances, Gonzalez should have the edge, but any signs of rust could play into the young wideouts’ — and therefore the Panthers’ — hands.

KR Antonio Gibson and KR TreVeyon Henderson: The Panthers have one of the best kickoff coverage teams in the NFL, in large part because of the technique used by rookie kicker Ryan Fitzgerald. His “knuckleballs” are challenging to field and have contributed to Carolina’s opponents having, on average, the worst starting field position in the league on kickoffs (at their own 21-yard line). For the Patriots’ returners, the goal will not so much be to try to turn those oftentimes shorter kicks into big plays but rather to be smart with their decision making and sound with their technique.