Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM): A Bull Case Theory

Tue, Sep 16, 2025, 10:44 AM 3 min read

We came across a bullish thesis on Amentum Holdings, Inc. on Stay Invested’s Substack by Denis Gorbunov. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AMTM. Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s share was trading at $24.98 as of September 2^nd. AMTM’s trailing and forward P/E were 116.89 and 10.49 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Amentum Holdings (AMTM) is a recently listed U.S. government contractor that provides engineering, defense, intelligence, and cybersecurity services, including support for military bases, nuclear facilities, and classified operations. Its client roster is highly secure, with NASA, the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and state and local governments as core partners. The company has been a beneficiary of increased U.S. defense spending, supported by favorable policies and rising global instability, which drive sustained government outlays in national security. After its 2024 IPO, AMTM’s stock initially fell but has since found a floor at $24, a level where it now holds steady, signaling that its fundamentals have begun to be recognized by the market.

Financially, Amentum is demonstrating strong momentum. Revenue grew 66% year-over-year and 52% across the last four quarters, reflecting both organic expansion and contract wins. The company generates around $100 million in free cash flow, which provides balance against its $3.8 billion long-term debt load—a figure elevated but not atypical for a company in a growth phase. Institutional investors are taking note of AMTM’s positioning, with ownership activity suggesting confidence in its future prospects.

The investment case rests on the durability of defense spending, where Amentum’s entrenched government relationships provide visibility and resilience. While leverage is high, consistent cash generation and long-term contracts mitigate risk. With a defensive business model, stable revenue streams, and exposure to rising global security demands, AMTM offers investors a compelling mix of growth and reliability, with its current stock price presenting a potentially attractive entry point.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) by Acid Investments in March 2025, which highlighted undervaluation after the spin-off, margin expansion potential, and insider buying. The company’s stock has appreciated approximately 33% since our coverage as backlog strength and deleveraging gained traction. The thesis still stands with government contracts ensuring visibility. Denis Gorbunov shares a similar view but emphasizes strong revenue growth.