2025 Emmy Awards predictions: Who will win? Who should win? Our picks and best bets for every major category

It’s almost showtime! The 2025 Emmy Awards will be presented on Sunday, Sept. 14, in Los Angeles, where the stars of critically acclaimed shows will vie for the coveted statuettes honoring TV’s best shows and performances from the past year.

As always, there are plenty of intriguing races and storylines. Will Apple TV’s Severance and The Studio dominate? Can HBO’s The White Lotus and The Penguin keep up? What about dark horses such as The Pitt and Adolescence? And breakout stars like Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) and Uzo Aduba (The Residence), or a beloved actor experiencing a career resurgence, like The Pitt’s Noah Wyle, three decades removed from his rise to fame on ER?

Television critics have weighed in with their predictions, but the Emmys aren’t just about consensus favorites. Ahead of Sunday night’s ceremony, we’ve rounded up who experts expect to win in every major category — and who Yahoo staffers think should win.

See all of our picks below.

Limited or Anthology Series

• Adolescence

• Black Mirror

• Dying for Sex

• Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

• The Penguin

Who will win: Adolescence

Among critics, it’s virtually unanimous: Adolescence is a lock for an Emmy in this category. Gold Derby gives the four-episode Netflix drama a 100% chance of winning. And Glenn Whipp of the Los Angeles Times said Adolescence is “far and away the class of this year’s limited series contenders.”

Who should win: Adolescence

The Penguin has the movie stars, the big budget and the prestige network pedigree, but nothing on TV this past year pummeled me emotionally the way Adolescence did. Its extended single-shot episodes never felt like a gimmick — they felt like the only correct way to depict the heartbreaking, disturbing and overall deeply human ripple effects of an unimaginable crime.
— Mike Bebernes

Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Colin Farrell, The Penguin

• Stephen Graham, Adolescence

• Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent

• Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief

• Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

Who will win: Colin Farrell

Farrell's riveting performance as Gotham City's rising crime boss makes him the "obvious frontrunner," Matt Roush of the Los Angeles Times said. "Farrell as ‘The Penguin’ ticks off all of the awards-bait boxes: physical transformation, absolute commitment, scenery-chewing range."

Who should win: Farrell

His transformation was next level! I kept forgetting it was actually Colin Farrell underneath the prosthetics. He moves, talks and commands the screen like he’s the Tony Soprano of the DC universe — tense, unpredictable, yet completely in control.
— Dana Turner

Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer

• Meghann Fahy, Sirens

• Rashida Jones, Black Mirror

• Cristin Milioti, The Penguin

• Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex

Who will win: Cristin Milioti

Critics loved Milioti’s gritty, electrifying performance in The Penguin. And while she may be known more for her comedic skills, Saloni Gajjar of the A.V. Club said Milioti “owned the antagonistic role as Sofia Falcone,” and “her considerable range” will ultimately prevail on Sunday.

Who should win: Michelle Williams

Not enough people watched Dying for Sex! The mere premise of the show — a terminally ill woman exploring her freak side — is total prestige bait. Williams makes it gourmet, and I'm eating it up.
— Kelsey Weekman

Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle And Erik Menendez Story

• Bill Camp, Presumed Innocent

• Owen Cooper, Adolescence

• Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex

• Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent

• Ashley Walters, Adolescence

Who will win: Owen Cooper

Gold Derby gives Cooper a 100% chance of winning for his critically acclaimed role as Jamie Miller in the hit Netflix series Adolescence. So there's a more than decent chance the 15-year-old English actor will get the trophy in his Emmys debut.

Who should win: Cooper

Talk about a breakout performance! The teenager is masterfully pathetic and haunting in a show that only works because he's so great. He should win and get cast in a million things afterward.
— Kelsey Weekman

Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Erin Doherty, Adolescence

• Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent

• Deirdre O'Connell, The Penguin

• Chloë Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

• Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex

• Christine Tremarco, Adolescence

Who will win: Erin Doherty

Doherty is in just one episode of Adolescence, but Steve Pond of TheWrap said her portrayal of a child psychologist assessing a young killer is “one of 2025’s most riveting hours of television.”

Who should win: Jenny Slate

I'm not sure I would have kept watching this show if not for Jenny and her devastating deliveries. Dying for Sex really boils down to a story about friendship, and she just exuded love, humor, messiness, the boot.
— Erin Donnelly

Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary

• The Bear

• Hacks

• Nobody Wants This

• Only Murders in the Building

• Shrinking

• The Studio

• What We Do in the Shadows

Who will win: The Studio

Hollywood loves making fun of itself, and most critics say The Studio, which received a whopping 23 nominations in its first season, delivers irresistible joy for Emmy voters.

Who should win: The Studio

I thought it would be too Hollywood-insider for me, but it's a hilarious, legitimate laugh-out-loud show that makes fun of the industry while also showing some of the behind-the-scenes dynamics. And there are amazing cameos. I still talk about Martin Scorsese's Kool-Aid movie pitch whenever someone brings the show up.
— Anthony Rivas

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This

• Seth Rogen, The Studio

• Jason Segel, Shrinking

• Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

• Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Who will win: Seth Rogen

Critics generally seem to favor Rogen over Short, who won his first-ever Screen Actors Guild award for his Only Murders work earlier this year. As the Los Angeles Times put it, Rogen “played cringe comedy to perfection.”

Who should win: Rogen

Rogen’s never not hilarious, but his role in The Studio is a touch more restrained than we’re used to seeing. He’s balancing his ultimate desire to be likable (usually the easy part for Rogen characters) with a need to be good at a job that often makes people hate him. And he plays it perfectly.
— Kaitlin Reilly

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Uzo Aduba, The Residence

• Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This

• Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

• Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

• Jean Smart, Hacks

Who will win: Jean Smart

Smart won Emmys for each of the first three seasons of Hacks, and critics have little doubt she’ll take home another — which would put her closer to the record six Julia Louis-Dreyfus nabbed for Veep.

Who should win: Ayo Edebiri

Maybe The Bear isn't really a comedy, but when asked about that controversy, Edebiri said the question was "above my pay grade." I think she should win for that answer alone.
— Kelsey Weekman

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Ike Barinholtz, The Studio

• Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons

• Harrison Ford, Shrinking

• Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere

• Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

• Michael Urie, Shrinking

• Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

Who will win: Harrison Ford

Among most critics, it seems to be a two-man race between Hollywood legend Harrison Ford, who received his first-ever Emmy nomination for his role as a curmudgeonly senior therapist who has Parkinson’s disease on Shrinking, and Ike Barinholtz, Rogen’s right-hand man on The Studio.

Who should win: Ike Barinholtz

Barinholtz is so unhinged, so hysterical — it’s like comedy gold in every scene. From his frantic gestures to perfectly-timed panic, he makes the chaos look effortless. Every meltdown had me laughing (and cringing) harder than the last.
— Dana Turner

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear

• Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

• Kathryn Hahn, The Studio

• Janelle James, Abbott Elementary

• Catherine O'Hara. The Studio

• Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

• Jessica Williams, Shrinking

Who will win: Hannah Einbinder

Unlike Smart, Einbinder has yet to win an Emmy for her work on Hacks, and most critics say it’s long overdue. Einbinder “delivered her series-best work in season four,” Saloni Gajjar of the A.V. Club said, as her character Ava “lost her mind.”

Who should win: Kathryn Hahn

I’ve loved her in everything I've ever seen her in, but honestly thought this was her funniest role. She absolutely owned every scene she was in, from the insane Gen-Z coded lingo and wardrobe (which I secretly want) to her potty-mouth-fueled arguments with co-stars. I would watch an entire spinoff with her as the star.
— Dana Turner

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Sterling K. Brown, Paradise

• Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

• Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us

• Adam Scott, Severance

• Noah Wyle, The Pitt

Who will win: Noah Wyle

Wyle was nominated for five Emmys on ER, but never won, making his comeback on The Pitt 30 years later too hard for Television Academy voters to deny. “Hollywood loves a comeback,” Alicia Rancilio of the Associated Press said. “And it's time for Wyle to get his flowers.”

Who should win: Wyle

The Pitt is revolutionary, but the best thing about it isn't just the unconventional real-time format and inclusive storylines — it's the show's ability to make us care so much about people we barely know. Wyle does this best, exuding emotion and warmth from someone who might appear grumpy and mysteriously all-knowing if his lines were delivered with less empathy for the real-life health care workers that he advocates for. He's the beating heart of a new series that's making TV exciting and innovative again.
— Kelsey Weekman

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Kathy Bates, Matlock

• Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters

• Britt Lower, Severance

• Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

• Keri Russell, The Diplomat

Who will win: Kathy Bates

The 77-year-old Oscar and two-time Emmy winner said she considered retiring from acting before taking the title role in the critically acclaimed reboot of Matlock, and now she’s the favorite to win her first Emmy as a lead.

Who should win: Britt Lower

Helly! She's captivating and quite literally layered in Severance — such a unique character and performance.
— Dana Turner

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• Zach Cherry, Severance

• Walton Goggins, The White Lotus

• Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus

• James Marsden, Paradise

• Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus

• Tramell Tillman, Severance

• John Turturro, Severance

Who will win: Walton Goggins

Goggins was the breakout star of the third season of Mike White’s hit ensemble dramedy, and many critics predict it will result in the veteran character actor’s first-ever Emmy.

Who should win: Sam Rockwell

Why: I spent more time thinking about Rockwell's epic monologue about his sex addiction than whatever drawn-out angst Walton was going through.
— Erin Donnelly

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• Patricia Arquette, Severance

• Carrie Coon, The White Lotus

• Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt

• Julianne Nicholson, Paradise

• Parker Posey, The White Lotus

• Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus

• Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus

Who will win: Carrie Coon

With four actresses from The White Lotus nominated in the same category, chances are one of them will win — unless they split the vote. And most critics say it will be Coon.

Who should win: Parker Posey

Coon was great, but I think costar Posey deserves it more for her brilliant portrayal of Victoria Ratliff, the pill-popping, wine-swilling southern matriarch on Season 3 of The White Lotus. (She even got the accent right!) She’s also the character I hope director Mike White decides to bring back for Season 4.
— Dylan Stableford

Drama Series

• Andor

• The Diplomat

• The Last of Us

• Paradise

• The Pitt

• Severance

• Slow Horses

• The White Lotus

Who will win: Severance or The Pitt

There seems to be a fairly even split among critics between the dystopian office thriller and breakout hit medical drama. The Associated Press said that Severance “felt like the peak of the prestige TV year," and has been “destined for this award" since its second season began. But some TV experts at the L.A. Times think The Pitt’s “raw emotional power” gives it an edge.

Who should win: Severance

The second season was gripping and left viewers like me literally on the edge of my seat every single week. The pacing was impeccable, didn’t belabor plot points and left us with such a satisfying cliff-hanger. Severance is the type of show you need to watch more than once because every detail matters. It’s the best show I've ever watched and deserves an Emmy!
— Nicole Darrah