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Which major NFL trades look better -- worse -- in hindsight? Barnwell's fresh takes on 23 recent swaps

Bill BarnwellSep 25, 2025, 06:35 AM ET
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Evaluating NFL trades is an inexact science. In the moment, we can compare deals to similar ones from the past or look at what the widely held expectations were for a swap, but teams have information and insights that we don't necessarily have on the outside. Are a player's medicals concerning? Is he a problem in the locker room? Is there a potential starter waiting to break out on the bench with more opportunities?

And while we know the value of draft picks in a vacuum, actually seeing who those selections become can inform what a team really landed in a trade. The team trading away those picks shouldn't care whether the selections turn into stars or scrubs on the other side of the equation, but trading a veteran star for picks certainly feels a lot better when you land a younger, cheaper replacement in the draft and can use some of the financial savings elsewhere on the roster.

The Seahawks and Cardinals -- who meet Thursday (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video) -- have both been involved in significant trades over the past few years. I'm going to use this matchup as an excuse to take a look back at some of the most notable deals from the recent past. I'm looking at significant moves from 2022 and 2023, since those are recent enough to be relevant and far enough in the past to allow for more meaningful analysis.

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I'm going to mostly skip draft-pick swaps and focus on trades where the primary goal for one of the teams was adding a veteran known quantity, like the Jets trading for Aaron Rodgers and the Dolphins making their move for Tyreek Hill. I won't include the infamous Bears-Panthers trade that led Carolina to Bryce Young; that was a deal made primarily for draft capital, even though DJ Moore was involved. I'll make one exception -- the big draft-day trade the Cardinals made with the Texans in 2023, with Arizona moving down and Houston making a big bet on edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.

It's easy to evaluate trades years after the fact, of course, so I'm also going to give some context on what the mood around the trade was at the time and how I felt about it in the moment. I'm happy to say that I got some deals right in real time, but I can't say that I batted 1.000, either. Let's start with a deal that I was mostly wrong about -- and one that dramatically sent the Seahawks in a new direction. Deals are listed in chronological order.

Russell Wilson to the Broncos

When: March 2022

Broncos got: QB Wilson, 2022 fourth-round pick
Seahawks got: QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, 2022 first-, second- and fifth-round picks, 2023 first- and second-round picks

Broncos draft pick became: DT Eyioma Uwazurike
Seahawks draft picks became: OT Charles Cross, Edge Boye Mafe, LB Tyreke Smith, WR Dareke Young, CB Devon Witherspoon, Edge Derick Hall

At the time: I certainly liked this trade for the Broncos, who were adding a quarterback who was still playing at a high level. Wilson's play had slipped a bit earlier in 2021 because of a finger injury, but over his final six starts in Seattle, he had posted a 103.7 passer rating and ranked eighth in QBR. The Seahawks were entering QB purgatory after choosing coach Pete Carroll over Wilson, and I didn't like where that was likely to end up.

What happened: The Seahawks moved on at the perfect time. Wilson was markedly worse from the moment he stepped onto the field in the Denver, and while he didn't get any help when the Broncos hired Nathaniel Hackett as their coach, the Wilson trade turned out to be one of the worst decisions of the past decade, with the Broncos giving up significant draft capital and paying Wilson nearly $123 million for two years of below-average play.

On top of that, the Seahawks landed several building blocks for their post-Wilson retooling. Cross has settled in as an above-average left tackle for a team that badly needed a solution to replace Duane Brown. The real impact of the deal has come on defense, where Witherspoon has been an All-Pro-caliber player at his best, and Mafe and Hall combined for 14 sacks and 32 knockdowns last season. All three are on rookie deals, which has allowed the Seahawks to commit money elsewhere on their roster.

Has it been perfect? No. The three players involved in the deal didn't add much for Seattle, and the decision to prioritize Lock as part of the return didn't deliver. The Seahawks eventually re-signed Geno Smith, who won the job in camp and was surprisingly solid in his three years as the starter before giving way to free agent addition Sam Darnold. But Seattle has gone 30-24 over three-plus seasons since the Wilson deal without winning a playoff game. There's still some reality to the idea that making a deal like this without having a QB replacement in place can leave a team in the quarterback middle class, which is a very difficult place from which to operate.

But yeah, obviously, the Seahawks comprehensively won this trade.

In hindsight: Massive win for the Seahawks.

Carson Wentz to the Commanders

When: March 2022

Commanders got: QB Wentz, 2022 second- and seventh-round picks
Colts got: 2022 second- and third-round picks, 2023 conditional third-round pick

Commanders draft picks became: DT Phidarian Mathis, CB Christian Holmes
Colts draft picks became: WR Alec Pierce, TE Jelani Woods, OT Bernhard Raimann, TE Drew Ogletree, WR Josh Downs

At the time: This was a bizarre one. With the Colts basically advertising to everyone in the NFL that they were no longer interested in employing Wentz after one frustrating season in Indianapolis, it looked like they might end up being on the hook for $20 million of Wentz's 2022 guarantee. A Commanders team that first tried to trade three first-round picks to the Seahawks for Wilson actively ignored the tea leaves and decided that it was desperate enough to take the plunge, paying the entirety of Wentz's $28.2 million salary in the process.

What happened: This would have been a gift for the Colts for financial reasons alone, given that Washington did Indianapolis a solid by taking Wentz's guarantees off its hands. The Commanders also swapped second-round picks, moving down five spots, and sent the Colts a pair of third-round selections in the process. For their investment, the Commanders got seven starts out of Wentz, whose 34.4 QBR in 2022 ranked 30th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks.

On top of that, Colts GM Chris Ballard was able to leverage the deal into several offensive starters. Indy traded down with the Vikings in the 2022 draft. Minnesota moved up in the second round for Andrew Booth, who started two games in two years before being shipped off to Dallas. The Colts sent a fourth-rounder to the Vikings as part of that deal, but they used the two picks they got from Minnesota on Pierce and Raimann -- a valuable downfield threat and their left tackle of the future. The conditional third-round pick turned into Downs, who has been a dangerous playmaker out of the slot.

In hindsight: Significant win for the Colts.

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Khalil Mack to the Chargers

When: March 2022

Chargers got: Edge Mack
Bears got: 2022 second-round pick, 2023 sixth-round pick

Bears draft picks became: S Jaquan Brisker, S Elijah Hicks, P Trenton Gill

At the time: A Bears team that was retooling under new general manager Ryan Poles wanted to clear out cash and cap space. Mack was entering his age-31 season and was owed $17.8 million in 2022, a concern given that the former Defensive Player of the Year had been limited to seven games in 2021 by a foot injury. The Chargers wanted a second pass rusher next to star Joey Bosa and clearly preferred Mack to pending free agent Uchenna Nwosu, who left in free agency for the Seahawks.

What happened: Mack rounded back into form, making the Pro Bowl in each of the next three seasons. The 2024 nod might have been a little generous, but in 2023, Mack racked up 17 sacks and 21 tackles for loss, earning him deserved down-ballot Defensive Player of the Year attention. He is currently sidelined by an elbow injury, but Mack had missed just one game in his first three years with the Chargers. He has been healthy and productive.

The Bears used the second-round pick to land a talented safety in Brisker, but the player out of Penn State has battled concussions and missed 16 games over his first three years with Chicago. Poles traded the sixth-round pick back to the Chargers, who used it on H-back Scott Matlock, while the Bears landed a depth safety in Hicks and their punter between 2022 and 2023 in Gill.

The bigger issue for Poles has been replacing Mack up front. In the autumn of 2023, the Bears sent a second-round pick to the Commanders for Montez Sweat in a deal we'll cover shortly, giving him a massive contract in the process. When Sweat wasn't single-handedly able to create pressure, Poles gave Dayo Odeyingbo a three-year, $48 million contract in free agency. The jury is still out, but the Bears rank 28th in pressure rate this season. It certainly seems like they would have been better off just holding onto Mack.

In hindsight: Clear win for the Chargers.

Amari Cooper to the Browns

When: March 2022

Browns got: WR Cooper, 2022 sixth-round pick
Cowboys got: 2022 fifth-round pick, 2022 sixth-round pick

Browns draft pick became: WR Michael Woods II
Cowboys draft picks became: OT Matt Waletzko, LB Devin Harper

At the time: After an 865-yard season in 2021, the Cowboys were about to cut Cooper to free up $20 million in cash. Reports of Cooper's pending release attracted trade interest, and the Cowboys ending up dealing him to the Browns for a modest amount of draft capital. Dallas instead used some of that money to bring back Michael Gallup, who signed a five-year, $57.5 million deal to stay with the Cowboys after tearing his ACL the prior season. The Browns wanted a new No. 1 wideout to replace Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, both of whom had been released.

What happened: The Cowboys whiffed. Gallup never recovered from the ACL tear and racked up 842 receiving yards over two seasons before being released. Jerry Jones next traded for Brandin Cooks to try to fill the X receiver role across from CeeDee Lamb, but after two disappointing years from him, the Cowboys moved onto George Pickens.

The Browns did not whiff. Despite erratic quarterback play, Cooper put up 1,160 and 1,250 receiving yards in his two full seasons with Cleveland, earning a Pro Bowl nod for his work in 2023. Things went south quickly in 2024, but Cleveland was still able to salvage a third-round pick from the Bills as part of a midseason trade for the veteran receiver. None of the draft picks involved turned into a significant player.

Verdict: Easy win for the Browns.

Davante Adams to the Raiders

When: March 2022

Raiders got: WR Adams
Packers got: 2022 first- and second-round picks

Packers draft picks became: LB Quay Walker, just over half of the draft capital needed to move up for WR Christian Watson

At the time: I did not like this deal for the Raiders for a lot of reasons. Las Vegas was missing too much young talent from the dismal drafts of the Jon Gruden era and needed the draft picks. Trading this much draft capital for a wide receiver who was about to turn 30 -- even one as good as Adams -- was wildly optimistic about his chances of sustaining All-Pro play for multiple seasons. Factoring in the new contract the Raiders were handing their top wideout, Adams needed to be the best wide receiver in football to justify this deal. And the track record of stars maintaining that level of play isn't great.

While they were coming off a playoff appearance, the Raiders weren't as close to competing as they believed, with significant evidence suggesting they would decline in 2022. And reuniting Adams with his college teammate in Derek Carr was a fun story, but Carr's contract status was still uncertain, and there was likely to be a drop-off with Adams going from reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers to a less productive quarterback.

What happened: The Raiders went 6-11 in 2022, even while Adams was producing another All-Pro season. He has declined since then, failing to make the Pro Bowl (or an All-Pro team) in 2023 or 2024. The Raiders gave Carr a fake contract extension and then put him on ice by the end of Adams' first season before releasing their long-term starter, ending the Fresno State reunion after 15 games.

Adams outlasted Carr, coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler in Las Vegas, but the Raiders ended up trading their prized wideout to the Jets after a little over two-plus seasons, landing a third-round pick in the process (which they eventually turned into Geno Smith). Adams wasn't the problem with those Raiders teams, but the whole thing was a waste of time and money for an organization that had no capacity to self-reflect or evaluate.

The Packers haven't hit on a No. 1 wide receiver since Adams' departure, although there have been flashes from players such as Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, whose pro career has been impacted by knee and lower-body injuries. We'll see what happens with 2025 first-round pick Matthew Golden. GM Brian Gutekunst was able to use the money the Packers would have paid Adams elsewhere, and Walker has rounded into form as an above-average linebacker, especially when alongside young star Edgerrin Cooper.

The Packers have missed Adams, but this was an incredibly short-sighted deal for the Raiders that hasn't aged remotely well.

In hindsight: Clear win for the Packers.

Deshaun Watson to the Browns

When: March 2022

Browns got: QB Watson, 2024 sixth-round pick
Texans got: 2022 first- and fourth-round picks, 2023 first- and third-round picks, 2024 first- and fourth-round picks

Browns draft pick became: About half of the package to acquire WR Jerry Jeudy
Texans draft picks became: G Kenyon Green, CB Kamari Lassiter, LB Jamal Hill, OT Ozzy Trapilo, some portion of the draft capital used to move up for Edge Will Anderson Jr., WR John Metchie III, WR Tank Dell, LB Christian Harris, S Calen Bullock

At the time: Despite more than two dozen women accusing Watson of sexual assault and inappropriate conduct during massage sessions, there were a number of teams interested in trading for him after he sat out the entire 2021 season. The Browns were initially told that they were out of the running, leaving the Falcons, Panthers and Saints. When the Panthers weren't willing to guarantee four years to Watson, they fell out of the mix, only for the Browns to stunningly return to the table and outbid their competitors by offering Watson a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract.

What happened: It's arguably the worst trade in NFL history. Watson has been a disaster on the field for the Browns, missed significant time with shoulder and Achilles injuries, and will likely collect $92 million from the Browns through the end of the 2026 season without ever playing for the team again.

The Texans didn't nail all their picks, and they mitigated some of the impact by using a lot of the picks they acquired in a series of trades up the draft board. But avoiding the Watson megadeal and using the move to stock the roster with cost-controlled talent was a huge success, even if the organization had to endure a couple of lean seasons in the process. The Texans probably don't have the draft capital to move up for Will Anderson Jr. in 2023 without this deal, and they landed valuable players in the secondary with the additions of Lassiter and Bullock.

In hindsight: Unquestioned win for the Texans.

Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins

When: March 2022

Dolphins got: WR Hill
Chiefs got: 2022 first-, second- and fourth-round picks, 2023 fourth- and sixth-round picks

Chiefs draft picks became: WR Skyy Moore, OT Darian Kinnard, C Hunter Nourzad, most of the draft capital used to acquire CB Trent McDuffie and WR Rashee Rice

At the time: The Chiefs were coming off a disappointing end to their 2021 season at the hands of the Bengals, but even amid the surprise of the Adams trade, the idea that the Chiefs would ship off Patrick Mahomes' top wideout without landing an obvious replacement was shocking. Kansas City would ultimately sign JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and draft Moore, but it clearly opted for a deeper team by trading Hill for draft picks and spreading the savings on his contract throughout the roster.

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The move wasn't without controversy for the Dolphins, who beat out the Jets and signed Hill to a four-year, $120 million contract. Hill was entering his age-28 season, and while he had made six straight Pro Bowls, the Dolphins were targeting a player whose game was predicated on being one of the fastest wideouts on the planet. Were the Chiefs trading away Hill because they knew his legs were about to go?

What happened: Hill's legs were not about to go. Rejuvenated in Miami, Hill racked up back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons, earning first-team All-Pro nods in each of his first two seasons with the Dolphins. His numbers declined in Year 3, and he essentially quit on the team in Week 18 in the 2024 season, but the Dolphins got two truly spectacular seasons from Hill as part of this deal.

The Chiefs obviously didn't do too poorly, either, given that they immediately won the next two Super Bowls after the trade. I'd argue they won those titles in spite of their wide receiver room, but the move worked out fine for them. They landed an excellent cornerback in McDuffie, who has been making $3.5 million per year over his first four years in Kansas City, and an impactful wideout in Rice, who had 262 receiving yards in four playoff games during his rookie season before injuries and a six-game suspension put his career on pause.

GM Brett Veach traded up to add both players, and the rest of the return was underwhelming, but the Chiefs also cleared out salary to supplement the rest of their lineup. I'm not sure that signing Jawaan Taylor gave the Chiefs a star tackle, but even a league-average one helped Kansas City as it worked its way to consecutive titles. This is reasonably close to a win-win, but the Chiefs' struggles to replace Hill have me leaning toward Miami.

In hindsight: Slight win for the Dolphins.

A.J. Brown to the Eagles

When: April 2022

Eagles got: WR Brown
Titans got: 2022 first- and third-round picks

Titans draft picks became: WR Treylon Burks and part of a trade down that landed OT Nicholas Petit-Frere

At the time: The Titans didn't think the wide receiver market was going to spike. Brown holds that he would have signed with the Titans if they had offered him an extension worth $22 million per season. Reports in 2022 suggested that the offer to Brown from Titans general manager Jon Robinson topped out at $16 million per year, with potential incentives taking the deal to $20 million annually.

With Brown one year away from free agency and coming off an 869-yard season, the Titans must have felt like they could replace Brown's production at a fraction of the cost. They shipped Brown to the Eagles and replaced him in the first round with Burks, whose 6-foot-2, 225-pound size and speed drew pre-draft comparisons to Brown. If the Titans landed on a reliable replacement in him, they would have their physically imposing receiver at a fragment of what the Eagles would be paying Brown.

After missing on one first-round wide receiver (Jalen Reagor) and hitting on another (DeVonta Smith), the Eagles were looking for a second pass catcher to make life easier for developing quarterback Jalen Hurts. Howie Roseman nearly signed Allen Robinson in free agency, but when the veteran chose to sign with the Rams, the Eagles' general manager swung a trade for Brown on draft day.

What happened: Burks never really settled as a pro, with injuries limiting him to 699 receiving yards over his first three seasons in Tennessee before he fractured his collarbone in training camp, ending what will likely be his final year with the Titans. Given a larger role, Brown delivered on his per-route promise from Tennessee and broke out with the Eagles, posting back-to-back 1,450-yard campaigns in his first two years with Philadelphia.

Robinson didn't read the coming rise in the wide receiver market correctly. Paying $22 million per year for Brown would have been a bargain for the Tennessee version, let alone the guy Brown became in Philadelphia. And two days after Brown caught eight passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns in his first game against the Titans, Tennessee fired Robinson.

In hindsight: Huge win for the Eagles.

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Hollywood Brown to the Cardinals

When: April 2022

Cardinals got: WR Brown, 2022 third-round pick
Ravens got: 2022 first-round pick

Cardinals draft pick became: Edge Myjai Sanders
Ravens draft pick became: C Tyler Linderbaum, P Jordan Stout

At the time: This was another surprising trade of a young wide receiver, although the reasons for the deal became clearer in the weeks after the swap. The Ravens revealed that Brown, their former first-round pick, had requested a trade to get away from one of the league's most run-heavy offenses in Baltimore. The Cardinals didn't seem to have a need at wide receiver, but a week later, DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the 2022 season for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, opening up a need for a No. 1.

What happened: Brown got off to a hot start in Arizona and was on pace to post a 122-catch, 1,374-yard, nine-touchdown season after six games, but a broken foot derailed his year. And by the time he came back, Kyler Murray was sidelined by a torn ACL. The two shared the field for only a handful of snaps in 2023, and after two seasons in the desert, Brown signed with the Chiefs in free agency. Sanders, the Cardinals' third-round pick, lasted only one year in Arizona.

The Ravens traded down with the pick they got from the Cardinals and used it to draft Linderbaum, who has settled in as one of the better centers in football. Wide receiver was still a sore spot for the Ravens in 2022 after Rashod Bateman went down injured, but the addition of Zay Flowers in the 2023 draft gave Lamar Jackson his new top wideout.

In hindsight: Win for the Ravens.

Baker Mayfield to the Panthers

When: July 2022

Panthers got: QB Mayfield, cash considerations
Browns got: 2024 fifth-round pick

Browns draft pick became: Part of the draft capital used to acquire WR Jerry Jeudy

At the time: On the same day that reports suggested the Browns had attempted and failed to acquire Watson, Mayfield requested a trade out of Cleveland. The Browns denied that request until they successfully completed the deal for Watson, at which point they suddenly decided to do right by Mayfield. He lingered on the roster for months before being dealt to the Panthers, with the Browns eating $10.5 million of his fifth-year option to save the remaining $4.9 million.

What happened: The Mayfield era lasted all of six starts in Carolina, as the Panthers benched him before releasing him midseason. Mayfield caught on with the Rams and memorably won a game against the Raiders on short notice before signing with the Buccaneers the following offseason -- at which point he became an above-average starting quarterback.

In hindsight: Lose-lose.

Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers

When: October 2022

49ers got: RB McCaffrey
Panthers got: 2023 second-, third- and fourth-round picks, 2024 fifth-round pick

Panthers draft picks became: Edge DJ Johnson, part of the draft capital sent to the Bears for the pick that became QB Bryce Young, a very small portion of the draft capital that led to RB Jonathon Brooks

At the time: After seeing McCaffrey miss most of the 2020 and 2021 seasons because of injuries, the Panthers decided that their rebuilding team would be better off with draft capital than a running back with an expensive contract. With McCaffrey off to a healthy start in 2022, the Panthers shopped him to the rest of the league. And although Carolina didn't land the first-round pick it wanted, it picked up four selections from the 49ers, who outbid the Rams for the former All-Pro runner.

What happened: McCaffrey was a perfect fit in San Francisco, where he transformed a 49ers offense that was struggling with backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. After losing to the Chiefs in McCaffrey's first game with the team, the 49ers proceeded to win 11 consecutive games, even after losing Garoppolo to injury and turning to third-stringer Brock Purdy. That season ended in the NFC Championship Game. McCaffrey then won Offensive Player of the Year in 2023, racking up more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage while leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl.

The Panthers didn't make much of their picks. They packaged two of them to move up for Johnson, who has one half-sack in three seasons. The second-rounder went to the Bears in the ill-fated move up for Young, and the 2024 pick was involved in the Brian Burns trade. That eventually became part of the Rams' move up for Braden Fiske, with the Panthers trading down and adding Brooks, who has battled knee injuries during his brief pro career.

In hindsight: Clear 49ers win.

Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs

When: October 2022

Chiefs got: WR Toney
Giants got: 2023 third- and sixth-round picks

Giants draft picks became: TE Darren Waller, CB Tre Hawkins III

At the time: This was an interesting bet from GM Brett Veach and the Chiefs, who were still trying to find guys to fill out their wide receiver room after the Hill trade. Toney was in his second pro season after being drafted with the 20th pick in the 2021 draft, and although he hadn't been particularly productive, he had managed a 10-catch, 189-yard performance against the Cowboys during his rookie season before falling out of favor with the newly arriving Brian Daboll regime in 2022.

What happened: Toney certainly had an eventful Chiefs career. On one hand, he racked up a total of just 340 receiving yards in 20 games with Kansas City. He directly cost the team games with mistakes, including a drop that led to a Brian Branch pick-six in a 2023 loss to the Lions and an offensive offside call that wiped off a potential game-winning touchdown in the final minutes of a loss to the Bills.

And yet, at the same time, Toney made his mark in Super Bowl LVII, catching a short touchdown pass and setting up another with a 65-yard punt return against the Eagles. Toney clearly didn't live up to expectations, but he did have an impact on the biggest stage. The Giants used the third-round pick they got from the Chiefs to trade for Waller, who had 552 receiving yards and one touchdown in his lone season with New York before retiring.

In hindsight: Slight Chiefs victory.

Roquan Smith to the Ravens

When: October 2022

Ravens got: LB Smith
Bears got: LB A.J. Klein, 2023 second- and fifth-round picks

Bears draft picks became: DL Gervon Dexter Sr., LB Noah Sewell

At the time: The Bears were reenvisioning their defense after the arrival of Matt Eberflus, and they didn't seem interested in spending top-of-the-market money to retain Smith, who was in the final year of his rookie deal. The Ravens had struggled at inside linebacker after letting C.J. Mosley leave for the Jets in free agency. And although they had used a first-round pick on Patrick Queen, they decided to send a second-round pick to the Bears for Smith, knowing that they would be able to recoup a compensatory selection if he left after the year in free agency.

What happened: Smith elevated his own game and Queen's game after arriving in Baltimore, earning the first of three consecutive first-team All-Pro nods. The Ravens signed Smith to a five-year, $100 million deal before free agency began, and although they ended up losing Queen to the rival Steelers, Smith has been a star for the Ravens on the interior since. Per the FTN Football Almanac, Smith made 19.6% of plays for the Baltimore defense last season, the second-highest rate for any off-ball linebacker in the league.

The Bears used the second-round pick on Dexter, who has been a solid pass-rushing interior tackle, but they miss Smith. Chicago signed Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards in free agency, and although Edmunds was excellent in coverage last season, he has missed tackles at a much higher rate than his predecessor.

In hindsight: Ravens win.

Chase Claypool to the Bears

When: November 2022

Bears got: WR Claypool
Steelers got: 2023 second-round pick

Steelers draft pick became: CB Joey Porter Jr.

At the time: Ryan Poles simply needed to evaluate Justin Fields, and he needed to do it immediately. Getting Claypool, who was the third wideout on the depth chart for a Steelers team that had its own young quarterback in rookie Kenny Pickett, was such a priority that the Bears sent a second-round pick to the Steelers to acquire Claypool in season. In return, they were getting a player who was already about two-thirds of the way through his rookie deal. This didn't seem like a good idea at the time.

What happened: It went worse than anybody could have expected. Claypool looked disinterested during his time with the Bears and caught a total of 18 passes before the organization gave up on him and shipped the mercurial wideout to the Dolphins for a swap of Day 3 picks.

This wasn't Claypool's fault, but the Bears didn't win a single game in 2022 after the trade and ended up sending the top pick in the second round to the Steelers. Pittsburgh used it on Porter, who was a revelation as a rookie cornerback before taking a bit of a step backward last season. This was a disaster, albeit one overshadowed by the success of the trade down with Carolina.

In hindsight: Huge Steelers victory.

T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings

When: November 2022

Vikings got: TE Hockenson, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 fourth-round pick
Lions got: 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick

Vikings draft picks became: S Jay Ward, small pieces of the draft capital used to trade up for QB J.J. McCarthy and Edge Dallas Turner
Lions draft picks became: QB Hendon Hooker, DT Brodric Martin

At the time: This was a calculated bet from the Vikings, who were adding a second option behind Justin Jefferson at a TE position where the top salaries lagged behind their counterparts at wide receiver. Hockenson was in the middle of a career year with the Lions, and there was hope that the 2019 eighth pick might hit new heights after leaving a frustrating situation in Detroit. A Lions team that had started 4-19-1 under Dan Campbell didn't seem close to contending.

What happened: The Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL since that move, and they ably replaced Hockenson with second-round pick Sam LaPorta, although the picks they got as part of this deal didn't pan out into regular contributors. Would the Lions have traded Hockenson if they knew they were about to get white-hot in the second half of 2022 and become one of the best teams in the league in 2023?

Hockenson posted career-high receiving totals in 2022 and then again in 2023, but those were more a product of running more routes than becoming more efficient. The two-time Pro Bowler had his 2023 season sidelined by a torn ACL and hasn't looked quite as explosive since returning halfway through the 2024 campaign. Even with that being true, the Vikings did get meaningful production out of him in 2022 and 2023, and there's a lot of time in 2025 for Hockenson to turn things around.

Verdict: Slight win for the Vikings.

Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins

When: November 2022

Dolphins get: Edge Chubb, 2025 fifth-round pick
Broncos get: RB Chase Edmonds, 2023 first-round pick, 2024 fourth-round pick

Dolphins pick became: S Dante Trader Jr.
Broncos picks became: Most of the draft capital used to acquire the rights to coach Sean Payton and WR Troy Franklin

At the time: This was another aggressive move for the Dolphins, who had used draft capital to acquire Hill and would later do the same to add Jalen Ramsey, a move we'll get to in a moment. With Chubb joining Jaelan Phillips, Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins up front, the Dolphins felt like they had their defensive line of the future, signing Chubb to a five-year, $110 million deal in the days after the deal was confirmed.

Chubb was playing out his fifth-year option in Denver, and with the Broncos needing to acquire draft capital after the disastrous Wilson trade, GM George Paton decided he was better off getting something for Chubb than having him play out the year in Colorado and playing the compensatory pick game.

What happened: Chubb's checkered injury history came back to bite the Dolphins. After a quiet 2022, Chubb racked up 11 sacks and six forced fumbles in 16 games before a torn ACL at the end of the 2023 season ended up costing him a chance to suit up in the playoffs for Miami. Chubb then missed all of the 2024 season as well, leading the Dolphins to renegotiate his contract after the year. He has racked up three sacks in three games to start the 2025 campaign.

The Broncos found an unexpected use for their new first-round pick, shipping it to the Saints as the bulk of the return for retired head coach Sean Payton. The Super Bowl winner wasn't able to turn around Wilson in Denver, but in his second year, Payton led the Broncos to an unexpected playoff berth with Bo Nix at quarterback. The Chubb trade opened up opportunities on the edge for Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto, too, who form one of the best young edge-rushing duos in the NFL.

Verdict: Easy win for the Broncos.

Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars

When: November 2022

Jaguars get: WR Ridley
Falcons get: 2023 fifth-round pick, 2024 fourth-round pick (both conditional)

Falcons draft picks became: CB Jeff Okudah and part of the draft capital used to move up for DT Ruke Orhorhoro

At the time: This seemed like a low-risk, high-reward move for a Jaguars team trying to build around young quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Although Jacksonville's picks would scale if Ridley played well, the Jags were sending two Day 3 selections to the Falcons for a player who had racked up 1,374 yards in 2020. Ridley had been suspended for the 2022 season at the time, though, after violating the league's gambling policy. He had requested a trade from Atlanta before the suspension and clearly wanted a fresh start.

What happened: Ridley caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards in Jacksonville, but he never seemed to really settle into the offense on a consistent basis. The Jags generally isolated him as the X receiver with mixed results. Both sides were ready to move on after one year, and Ridley joined the Titans in free agency. The Falcons used the picks to bring in Okudah, a veteran corner, for one season and move up for Orhorhoro, who hasn't established himself as a starter.

Verdict: Slight win for the Jaguars.

Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins

When: March 2023

Dolphins get: CB Ramsey
Rams get: TE Hunter Long, 2023 third-round pick

Rams draft pick became: Edge Byron Young

At the time: Most people couldn't believe that the Dolphins had managed to land Ramsey -- one year removed from a first-team All-Pro nod and a run to the Super Bowl -- for a third-round pick and a backup tight end. The Rams were facing an uncertain future and a difficult cap situation after a 5-12 season, and with Ramsey hankering for a new contract, GM Les Snead decided to move on from a player who had seemingly been a cornerstone for Los Angeles.

What happened: The Rams weren't out of contention for long, as they made a trip back to the playoffs in 2023. Long didn't do much, but the third-round pick became Young, who had 15.5 sacks in his first two seasons and has been playing at a Pro Bowl level so far in 2025. On a four-year, $5.5 million deal, Young has been a huge bargain for the Rams' defense. Cornerback, meanwhile, has been a weak spot for Los Angeles, but the Rams landed a player at a more valuable position at a fraction of Ramsey's cost.

The Dolphins didn't get the best out of Ramsey, either. He tore his meniscus in training camp and missed the first seven games of the 2023 season, though he was excellent upon returning to the lineup. The Dolphins guaranteed two years of Ramsey's existing deal when they made the trade before giving him a new contract after one year in Miami. But after a disappointing 2024 season, both sides decided they wanted a fresh start. The Dolphins were forced to swap Ramsey with Minkah Fitzpatrick, eating nearly $35 million in dead money in the process.

Verdict: Big win for the Rams.

Aaron Rodgers to the Jets

When: April 2023

Jets get: QB Rodgers, 2023 first- and fifth-round picks
Packers get: 2023 first-, second- and sixth-round picks, 2024 second-round pick (conditional)

Jets draft picks became: Edge Will McDonald IV, S Jarrick Bernard-Converse, TE Zack Kuntz
Packers draft picks became: DL Lukas Van Ness, TE Luke Musgrave, K Anders Carlson, LB Edgerrin Cooper, draft capital used in trades for OL Jacob Monk and S Evan Williams

At the time: The Jets fell in love with their own hype. After a great defense carried Zach Wilson to a seven-win season, coach Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas believed that they were one quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender. That quarterback was Rodgers, who was turning 40 years old and coming off a year where he ranked 26th in QBR. I understood why the Jets made the move, but when I wrote about the trade at the time, I was concerned that the Jets were committing to a quarterback who was unlikely to improve at 40 and was making a top-of-the-market contract.

Rodgers was being accompanied to New York by various affiliates who weren't likely to make the team better, including coach Nathaniel Hackett and receivers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, despite the fact that Rodgers' QBR was significantly worse with Cobb and/or Lazard on the field in his final season with the Packers. Rodgers was a legend in Green Bay, but after missing the playoffs, the Packers were ready to move on and hand things over to Jordan Love.

What happened: Disaster. After a summer in which the Jets and their fans fell in love with the idea of Rodgers leading them to glory, he tore his Achilles four snaps into his home debut. The Jets went 7-10. Although Rodgers stayed healthy the following season, even the arrival of Adams failed to spur significant success from the future Hall of Fame passer, with Rodgers finishing 25th in QBR before the Jets moved on after two seasons. The only silver lining came as a result of Rodgers getting hurt early in the 2023 season; it meant the Jets weren't obligated to send their 2024 first-round pick to the Packers as part of the deal.

This is addition by subtraction for the Packers, who upgraded at quarterback and cleared out cash and cap space in the process. Their draft picks have helped stock what has been one of the league's best defenses through three games. Although the Jets are thrilled with McDonald, Van Ness has hit new heights after the arrival of Micah Parsons in Green Bay, and Cooper is a bona fide superstar at linebacker. Some of the draft capital also helped the Pack move up for Williams, who forced his way into the starting lineup at safety as a rookie.

Verdict: Big win for the Packers.

play

1:18

RC: Aaron Rodgers is the least of the Steelers' problems

Ryan Clark explains why Aaron Rodgers' supporting cast needs to step up in Week 3.

Will Anderson Jr. to the Texans

When: April 2023

Texans got: 2023 first- and fourth-round picks
Cardinals got: 2023 first- and second-round picks and 2024 first- and third-round picks

Texans draft picks became: Edge Anderson, most of the draft capital used to acquire S Calen Bullock
Cardinals draft picks became: Edge BJ Ojulari, CB Garrett Williams, DT Darius Robinson, G Isaiah Adams, CB Elijah Jones, most of the draft capital used to acquire OT Paris Johnson Jr.

At the time: I'm making an exception to the caveat about focusing on veteran deals to include this trade, since it involves one of the teams playing Thursday and had a very clear target on draft day. It's also a complicated move, as both these teams then traded away picks that were included in the deal. Essentially, the Texans moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 to take Anderson, sending multiple picks to the Cardinals, who then moved back up from No. 12 to No. 6 to grab Johnson. (The Lions moved down and landed a player they loved in Jahmyr Gibbs.)

This was a controversial deal for the Texans at the time. After drafting C.J. Stroud with the second pick, moving up to grab Anderson at No. 3 was either aggressive or careless, depending on which side of the fence you fell on. Many people, myself included, were worried that the Texans were going to send a potential top-five pick in 2024 to the Cardinals to acquire Anderson. Although Anderson had been excellent at Alabama, there was buzz in the weeks before the draft that some teams preferred Texas A&M edge rusher Tyree Wilson, who went to the Raiders at No. 7.

What happened: The Texans were right. Wilson has been wildly disappointing for the Raiders, but Anderson has been a superstar in Houston, racking up 21 sacks and 46 quarterback knockdowns across 32 games. He was a deserved Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and should have earned Pro Bowl consideration in 2024. And with Stroud breaking out at quarterback, the Texans made the playoffs and sent only the 26th pick in the 2024 draft to the Cardinals -- a much more palatable price to pay for moving up to get Anderson.

Things didn't go terribly for the Cardinals, though. They landed a much-needed left tackle in Johnson, who took a step forward in 2024 and looks like one of the more promising blindside protectors in the league. He's not on Anderson's level, but the Cards added multiple players to their defense, albeit all impacted by injury.

Ojulari got off to a promising start as a rookie before tearing his ACL and missing all of 2024 and 2025 so far. Williams was excellent in the slot in 2024 before suffering a knee injury against the Panthers in Week 2, sending him to injured reserve. Robinson is starting on the interior of the defensive line after missing most of 2024 with a nagging calf issue. This would be a win-win if the defenders were all healthy.

Verdict: Win for the Texans.

play

1:59

Why J..J. Watt was alarmed by Texans' loss to Jags

J.J. Watt voices his concerns about the Texans' underwhelming start to the season.

Leonard Williams to the Seahawks

When: October 2023

Seahawks got: DL Williams
Giants got: 2024 second-round pick, 2025 fifth-round pick

Giants draft picks became: S Tyler Nubin, OT Marcus Mbow

At the time: The Giants were facing a cap crunch and already had plenty invested in their defensive line. After getting off to a 2-6 start and with Williams in the final year of his contract, GM Joe Schoen decided to cut bait and sent him to Seattle for meaningful draft capital. This seemed pretty aggressive from the Seahawks, who were paying a significant premium for a half-season of Williams in advance of potentially losing him for nothing in free agency.

What happened: Williams wasn't able to push the 5-2 Seahawks into a postseason berth, but Seattle retained Williams in March 2024 on a three-year, $64.5 million pact. In 2024, the veteran had a career year after the arrival of Mike Macdonald, racking up 11 sacks, 28 knockdowns, 16 tackles for loss and an instant classic of a 92-yard pick-six. Could the Seahawks have just held on to their pick and signed Williams in free agency? Maybe. Yet it seems fair to assign some of the 2024 success to the decision to acquire Williams in 2023, even if he was on another contract the following year.

The Giants eventually used some of those savings to trade for and extend Brian Burns, which was probably a better use of their resources given the presence of Dexter Lawrence II at tackle. Nubin was one of the few bright spots for an otherwise-frustrating Giants defense as a rookie in 2024. Mbow has been forced into duty as a left tackle this season with painful results.

Verdict: Slight win for the Seahawks.

Montez Sweat to the Bears

When: October 2023

Bears got: Edge Sweat
Commanders got: 2024 second-round pick

Commanders draft pick became: Most of the draft capital in a deal that landed them CB Mike Sainristil, TE Ben Sinnott and S Dominique Hampton

At the time: One year after a disastrous in-season trade to acquire Claypool, Ryan Poles decided that he needed to make another addition. The Bears sent a second-round pick to acquire Sweat and then gave him a massive contract; Sweat had never made a Pro Bowl, but the Bears signed their new addition to a four-year, $98 million deal, making him the fifth-highest-paid edge rusher in football.

The most popular logic for both trades was similar: The Bears needed to address a position of weakness and were paying a draft premium to add a player who was better than the options they might be able to find in free agency. It hadn't worked out with Claypool, but Sweat was a much better player. The Commanders, meanwhile, were dumping salary as they rebuilt their roster under new ownership.

What happened: Sweat was good enough to earn that Pro Bowl nod in 2023, as he racked up six sacks in nine games down the stretch for the Bears. Chicago fielded one of the league's best defenses in the second half of the season, but it was driven by a massive spike in turnover rate as opposed to a significantly improved pass rush. And in 2024, hampered by an ankle injury, Sweat was limited to 5.5 sacks and 12 knockdowns as the Bears' defense fell apart. He has one sack in three games so far in 2025.

Sweat is a good two-way defensive end, but he's miscast as a team's primary pass rusher, let alone the superstar the Bears are paying him to be for them. The subsequent free agent class featured Danielle Hunter and Jonathan Greenard, both of whom signed for less than Sweat and have been much better since then. Although there's no guarantee that the Bears would have landed either player, ask any NFL agent what wins bids in free agency and they'll tell you money talks. With Greenard signing for $19 million per season and Hunter coming in at $24 million per year on a two-year pact, the Bears would have been in position to win either negotiation if they had offered the same deal they gave to Sweat.

The Commanders traded down out of the pick they got from the Bears, with the primary return being Sainristil, who has emerged as one of the league's best young cornerbacks. One of the other players in that group? Cooper DeJean, whom the Eagles took after acquiring that Bears second-round pick from their division rivals. Both corners are making a fraction of their true market value for four years, while Sweat's a good player being paid like a star in Chicago.

Verdict: Win for the Commanders.

Chase Young to the 49ers

When: October 2023

49ers got: Edge Young
Commanders got: 2024 third-round pick (conditional)

Commanders draft pick became: WR Luke McCaffrey

At the time: All-in to try to win a Super Bowl, the 49ers took a swing on a player with great traits who was still only 24 years old. Young was widely regarded as the best player in the 2020 draft and won Defensive Rookie of the Year in his debut season, but a torn ACL in Year 2 cost him most of the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Young had five sacks and nine knockdowns midway through 2023 when the 49ers acquired him, hoping that he could form a devastating one-two punch with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa.

What happened: Young didn't take in San Francisco. He managed 2.5 sacks and six knockdowns in nine regular-season games and added one more during the postseason. He didn't have a great Super Bowl, and the 49ers decided to move on after the year, allowing Young to sign with the Saints in free agency. GM John Lynch did pick up a fourth-round compensatory pick for Young, turning the trade into a short-term rental at the cost of a relatively modest draft pick swap.

The Commanders landed the last pick in the third round and used it on Luke McCaffrey, who hasn't been able to carve out significant time in the slot for Washington. He scored his first career touchdown Sunday against the Raiders, but that took him to 243 receiving yards in 20 career games. He still has plenty of time to go, but this has been a relatively underwhelming deal for both sides.