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Week 5 college football best bets, odds, picks: My best bets for Week 5

Another Saturday is upon us, but it's not just any Saturday.

We’re now five weeks into the college football season, which means the stakes are higher and the separation between contenders and pretenders is accelerating. Conference play is in full swing, cluster injuries are reshaping depth charts, and oddsmakers are forced to account for data points that are still only partially reliable.

Our three early-week bets already locked in closing line value, but the Week 5 board still presents opportunity, especially on totals.

Let’s dig into four matchups where the number tells a story worth betting.

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (-3.5, 52.5)

It’s rare that I circle a prime-time showdown, but the market is begging bettors to make a decision here. Oregon’s gaudy offensive profile is misleading. The Ducks have torched Montana State and Oklahoma State, but neither opponent offered much resistance defensively. Against Penn State, they step into a completely different arena.

The total raises an eyebrow when compared to history. The last time these two met — last December — the number opened at 49, closed at 51.5, and the game landed on 82 points. Oddsmakers still opened this week’s total at 52, despite both teams losing multiple offensive playmakers to the NFL Draft.

Happy Valley at night is one of the toughest environments in sports, and QB Dante Moore faces the stiffest test of his young career. Penn State’s defense ranks top 10 nationally in havoc rate and has surrendered just two passing touchdowns all season.

The atmosphere, the defensive edge and Moore’s learning curve all point in the same direction.

Bet: Oregon-Penn State Under 52.5

Utah (-12.5, 47) at West Virginia

West Virginia’s injury list reads like an infirmary report. Running backs Jahiem White and Tye Edwards are both sidelined, QB Nicco Marchiol is nursing an injury, and the defense has lost several key contributors. Depth is a problem — and against Utah, it’s magnified.

This isn’t the same Utah team from years past. New offensive coordinator Jason Beck has brought tempo and explosiveness, pairing with transfer QB Devin Dampier to create a scheme that attacks quickly and often. The Utes are averaging nearly 30 seconds fewer per possession than last year’s methodical offense.

Add in Rich Rodriguez’s tempo-heavy philosophy on the other sideline — his Jacksonville State team ranked first nationally in seconds per play last season — and you get a recipe for volatility. West Virginia’s defense is thin, Utah has speed and both coaches lean toward chaos when pace picks up.

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Yes, injuries make the Mountaineers less efficient offensively, but Rodriguez is notorious for shuffling lineups and finding ways to keep drives alive. That creativity could help WVU sustain just enough possessions to force Utah to keep its foot on the gas.

Bet: Utah-West Virginia Over 47 (-110)

Kentucky at South Carolina (-5.5, 46.5)

SEC matchups in the mid-40s total range have been a goldmine for under bettors historically. Over the last decade, games lined between 44 and 47 points have gone 76-66 to the under, with underdogs covering 57% of the time. History suggests we’re in for another grind on Saturday.

South Carolina made headlines last week when LaNorris Sellers threw for 300 yards against Missouri. The box score looks impressive, but context matters. Missouri blitzed on more than half of South Carolina’s dropbacks, exploiting Sellers’ lack of mobility and forcing him into double-digit negative rushing yards.

Kentucky presents a different challenge. The Wildcats defense is disciplined and ranks top-25 in explosive plays allowed. They won’t overcommit to pressure, and they’ll force Sellers to prove he can consistently beat coverage with accuracy. That’s a tall order for a quarterback still developing as a passer.

Expect long drives, conservative game plans and possessions that chew clock. This is the type of matchup where one or two stalled red-zone trips can decide the total.

Bet: Kentucky-South Carolina Under 46 (-110)

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (-3, 52.5)

This is the weekend’s marquee showdown, and on paper it feels like a true coin flip. Alabama has looked like two entirely different teams through four weeks. Ignore the Week 1 debacle against Florida State, and you could argue the Tide should be favored here. QB Ty Simpson has been terrific the last three games, and the offense looks like it has finally settled into a rhythm.

Georgia, meanwhile, is unbeaten but vulnerable. The Bulldogs rank just 79th nationally in pressure rate — a far cry from the dominant defensive fronts we saw in 2021 and 2022 — and their secondary was lit up by Tennessee. If Alabama protects Simpson, explosive plays will be available.

But the Week 1 tape can’t be erased. Alabama’s offensive line looked overwhelmed against Florida State’s front, and Georgia’s defensive talent is still far superior to most opponents. If the Crimson Tide regress toward that performance, the Bulldogs have the edge.