Week 1 Thoughts & Week 2 Preview

Since I uploaded this, some breaking news:

The Recap: Oops.

To err is human. To err like this is glorious.

Yes, I thought our beloved Vikings would lose a close one in Soldier Field by a score of 23-21. My fears were unfounded. I leaned too heavily on past failures, close calls, and the dreaded ghosts of Soldier Field past. I fully deserve to be ridiculed in the DN public square for such an act of foolishness.

Please keep in mind that I had us going 12-5 this year, and I predicted J.J. McCarthy’s nationally televised coming-out party would take place against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football in Week 2. To say I’ve been bullish on McCarthy would be an understatement. See here and here.

However, for three quarters, it seemed as though I was being too optimistic. Indeed, I was going over this article in my head, thinking of clever and witty ways to reinforce the message: “Relax. Don’t overreact. It’s only one game. Sure, it was ugly, but…it’s a marathon, not a sprint, dammit!” Yada, yada, yada.

It was the perfect storm for such a scenario to unfold. Rust was evident across the entire offensive system. The fact that McCarthy hadn’t taken a snap in a game that actually mattered in over 19 months was exacerbated by early KOC play-calling that did him no favors. Right before the pick-six early in the third quarter, the Vikings averaged a putrid eight yards to go on third downs. Uncharacteristic drops by Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen added to the “WTF am I watching here!?” shock of it all.

Then it all changed. The confidence. The poise. The moxie. Everything our already sky-high expectations had built up about McCarthy came to fruition in the span of one fourth-quarter burst of magic. He went six for eight for 87 yards, with a laser TD pass to Jefferson. Then another 27-yard beauty to Aaron Jones. And for the dramatic conclusion, a refuse to be denied, Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen-like 14-yard TD run. Just like that: 27-17. Ballgame.

The DN’s Christopher Gates was all over the history we witnessed. McCarthy was:

And then there’s KOC. Words escape me at this point. I’m so grateful we have him leading this team. Sure, second-half adjustments got the running game going (85 yards vs. 35 yards in the first half), along with the offense overall (174 yards vs. 80 yards, 12 first downs vs. two, etc.), which, in turn, laid the foundation for McCarthy’s fourth-quarter heroics. But it’s the things you can’t ascribe numbers to that really stick out. The halftime talk with McCarthy (and the team), the sideline interaction after the pick-six, then the sheer jubilation when it all came together after the final touchdown.

Following the game, ESPN’s morning show Get Up spoke about a hypothetical coaching draft. After acknowledging the likes of Andy Reid and Sean McVay, host Mike Greenberg said (and I’m paraphrasing), “If I’m picking a coach to lead my team today, I’m picking Kevin O’Connell.” I concur.

The defense? Well, exactly as expected. The start was rough, but in the end, there were no real complaints. Caleb Williams started a career-best 10 for 10 for 86 yards and did some damage on the ground early. By the early second quarter, he had 30 yards and a nice TD scamper, and Troy Aikman noted how Flores began designating a spy to take that away. Early on, I counted (at least) two sacks that would have gotten home on roughly 27 of the 32 NFL starting QBs, but that elusiveness was a massive part of why Williams was the first overall pick.

By the second half, Flores had firmly taken control of the situation. The Bears were held to 145 yards, with Williams going 8-19 for 86 net yards. This included their final drive, when they were down 10, and the prevent concept took over. Giving up 17 points on the road (with one of them a prevent special) is something you’ll take every Sunday (or in this case, Monday night).

Quick Thoughts:

Week 2 Preview: Let’s Make it Three in a Row

That brings us to Week 2. Listen, I don’t care that we’re 8-2 against the Atlanta Falcons since Gary Anderson missed wide left. I don’t care that the last two of those games were the memorable Josh Dobbs 31-28 road comeback and last season’s thorough 42-21 thrashing in the Kirk Cousins homecoming game. No amount of ass-whoopin’ of the Falcons will ever make up for the 1998 NFC Championship Game.

That being said, it would feel great to start 2-0 with a couple of valuable conference wins under our belt.

Scouting the Falcons

With the Vikings not playing until Monday night, I took the opportunity to enjoy the NFL Sunday Ticket with its sweet 4-in-1 split-screen action. The Falcons vs. Bucs game caught my interest, not only because it was an enticing divisional matchup, but also because I knew we were playing the Dirty Birds this week.

Michael Penix, Jr. impressed me. The arm strength jumps out of the television screen. He makes quick reads and gets the ball out fast. Of course, these were known qualities. What really struck me was how he was able to make some critical plays with his feet. Six carries for 21 yards doesn’t look scary, but the yardage was gained in high-impact situations, including a key first-down late in the fourth quarter, followed by a four-yard rushing TD to put the Falcons up 20-17 with 2:17 left in regulation. Listen, no one is going to confuse him with his 2024 draft classmate Jayden Daniels, but he’s definitely capable of making a play or two with his feet if needed. The guy is a gamer.

The Falcons’ defense also played well, holding a talented Bucs offense to 260 total yards and Baker Mayfield to 17 of 32 for 167 yards passing. Some Mayfield Magic did in the Falcons in the form of three TD passes, including a game-winning 25-yarder to talented rookie Emeka Egbuka with under 1:00 left.

The Game

The Vikings could be without some key pieces on defense for this one. Both Andrew Van Ginkel and Jeff Okudah are in concussion protocol. As the DN’s Warren Ludford noted, the short week could mean both are unavailable. Harrison Smith’s status is still uncertain. The Blake Cashman hamstring injury is a gut-punch. Eric Wilson played great in relief Monday night, but Cashman’s absence is going to be felt. The three-game stretch he missed with turf toe last year saw the Vikings give up two of the three highest point totals of the season. Granted, they were against the Lions and Rams, but still.

On the Falcons’ side, wide receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney are both banged up. At this point, the former seems more likely to suit up for this one. Even if London is limited, the cupboard is hardly bare for Raheem Morris’s bunch. Bijan Robinson is a match-up nightmare. While relatively quiet as a rusher last week, he logged six receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown through the air. When your check down can take it to the house anytime on an outlet pass, you need to commit safety resources to keep a lid on it. Heck, there was even a Kyle Pitts sighting (seven receptions for 59 yards).

Those challenges aside, I have no doubt Flores will be up to the task despite missing some key pieces. The Falcons’ offensive line kept Penix relatively clean last week (one sack and seven QB pressures) against the Todd Bowles blitz machine, but they’ll face something of a different order this week, on the road, in front of a rockin’ crowd. Even if Van Ginkel can’t go, Dallas Turner should be ready to fill in admirably. Hargrave and Allen will be an utter menace inside. Greenard will be the usual headache for any tackle he faces. I’d be shocked if we don’t get Penix off his desired rhythm early and often in this one. With that comes turnovers. Let’s hope U.S. Bank Stadium turns into the world’s largest bakery on Sunday night.

On offense, I fully expect the rust/jitters/whatever the first three quarters were on offense in Chicago to be firmly in the rearview mirror. What we saw afterward was the Vikings offense we all expected. The Atlanta defense is solid, but KOC has solved far more vexing puzzles. I’d be shocked if J.J. McCarthy and company don’t feed off the unique energy that comes from the season’s inaugural home game and put together an all-around impressive performance.

The Prediction

In my May article projecting the Vikings’ 2025 season, I had this to say:

The aforementioned Week 1 faux pas may have subconsciously caused me to overcompensate here. I’d be surprised if the Falcons weren’t squarely in the Wild Card mix in mid-December, aided by four gimme division wins they’ll stack up against the Saints and Panthers.

34-14 may have been a bit too optimistic. Let’s say 31-17 Vikings instead. Shave the margin a tad, but a similar comfort level. Works for me.

Since it’s Sunday Night Football, let’s hope I’m back next time channeling some Cris Collinsworth: “Now here’s a guy who knows how to make a prediction. By the way, how great is Patrick Mahomes?”

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