Week 1 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis:

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

Yep. Points are what ultimately matter, but you score points by moving the ball — and tracking first downs is one of the best ways to measure that. I like to convert it into a percentage of total series, which gives you Drive Success Rate (DSR). Mostly, I do it because it takes something simple and makes it sound more complicated, but either way, whether you look at 27 first downs or an 87.1% DSR, the message is the same: the Colts’ offense had no trouble moving the ball against the Dolphins.

I’d have liked to trade a few of those field goals for touchdowns, but I’m not going to complain about 400+ yards of offense and six red-zone trips. What I wanted was consistency — and that’s exactly what I got.

Even though Buffalo, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh each outscored the Colts, Indy did it on fewer drives — finishing Week 1 with the most points per drive in the league, along with the No. 1 Drive Success Rate (DSR). Their yards per play weren’t as eye-popping (ninth overall), but ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in total success rate shows they made the most of every yard.

The one negative: despite having the second-shortest average distance to gain on third down, the offense converted <50% of those third downs — just the 19th-best rate. In other words, they were strong on first and second down but poor on third — and that’s a problem if it continues. They made up for it on 4th down a few times and they had the 7th most explosive yards of any team, so “no harm no foul” I guess.

Unlike my QB stats article, I’m not including designed QB runs here, so the numbers look a bit different. Daniel Jones debuted in Indy with the seventh-best EPA per dropback and the fourth-best passing success rate. He also posted the third-best conversion rate and the fourth-highest net yards per dropback.

That production was fueled by a ridiculous 75.9% completion rate — 5.4% above expectations. Add in more than 100 yards in explosive plays and zero turnovers, and it’s easy to see why his efficiency jumped.

He didn’t force much, made very few mistakes, and simply kept the offense moving. Some will label that “game manager.” I don’t care what you call it — I just want to see more of it.

The Colts’ run game was highly efficient as well. The raw total of 136 rushing yards may not jump off the page, but those yards produced two touchdowns and 11 first downs — good for the sixth-best standard Rush Success Rate (RSR). Once you account for down, distance, and game script, that climbs to the fourth-best weighted RSR in Week 1.

Going 3-for-6 on third downs isn’t great, but having the fourth-most explosive rushing plays provided a huge boost in keeping the ball moving down the field.

Overall, it was a great showing from both phases of the offense. Sure, Miami’s defense probably isn’t very good — but good teams are supposed to put up points on bad defenses, and the Colts did exactly that. One week in, the Colts have one of the best offenses in the league. Yes, I said it.

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