USC Trojans move into Top 5 of ESPN’s FPI after 2-0 start

Despite the USC Trojans getting off to a 2-0 start, they are still no sure thing for either the AP or Coaches Polls this week. But one rating that loves the Trojans this season is ESPN’s Football Power Index.

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

After jumping from No. 14 to No. 6 last week, USC now sits at No. 5 in the FPI. The Trojans began at No. 19 when this year’s FPI was first released early in the offseason.

The numbers continue to love the Trojans as now USC is one of just three teams projected to win at least 10 games by FPI. Preseason numbers showed USC with a win-loss total of 8.7 wins and 3.9 losses. USC is now pegged at a projected 10.0 wins and 2.4 losses. Only Oregon and Ohio State also reach the 10-win mark.

While those numbers improved, USC’s chance to win the Big Ten actually took a hit with Oregon’s big jump after a dominant win over Oklahoma State. The Ducks jumped all the way to No. 1 and have a 33.7% chance to win the conference.

The other areas of projection and movement for the Trojans:

Chance to win the Big Ten. Then: 19.7% Now: 17.3% (started 8.1%)
Chance to make the playoff: Then: 55.8% Now: 60% (started 29.1%)
Chance to make the National Championship game: Then: 13.2%. Now: 15.1% (started 3.3%)
Chance to win the National Championship game: Then: .9%. Now: 7.3%

The Trojans jumped, Georgia, Penn State and Ole Miss, while Alabama and Oregon climbed ahead of them. USC will now head into Big Ten play where the quality of opponent will climb game to game. Though USC does start with a Purdue team that is ranked 18th (and last) in FPI among Big Ten teams.