5 hours ago 1

Spring Creek Motocross betting, predictions, lines: Jett Lawrence dominance drags competition's champ odds

Jett Lawrence extended his points lead at RedBud to more than one full round, which triggered an interesting response from the official oddsmaker for Pro Motocross entering Spring Creek. Alt Sports Data gave him an opening line of -99900, effectively suggesting that sportsbooks eliminate the potential for bettors to wager on this outcome. That would also suggest that wagers were still being made by well-heeled individuals when he entered Southwick at -1127 and at RedBud at -1572.

The significance of this is that subsequent lines were also massively altered. Last week, second-place rider Eli Tomac was listed at +532 for the championship. His raw odds opened this week at +4267 after a mechanical failure in Moto 1 at RedBud virtually ended Tomac’s title hopes.

Hunter Lawrence was +1718 to win the championship last week. Moving to second in points, he is currently listed at +2617. While the traders are correct that Jett will not be caught if he remains healthy, dirt bike racing is inherently unpredictable, and should an injury occur, now might be a good time to speculate. Jett injured his thumb in practice last year, and the same unlikely injury kept Tomac from starting the 2024 Motocross season.

As for outright win odds, Jett also underwent a massive change from -307 to -800. The risk versus reward ratio is skewed to discourage a wager on the rider everyone knows is going to win, but that is again predicated on his health.

Hunter (+475) remains the second-favored rider with a line barely changed from his +451 entering RedBud. He finished second overall with a second-place finish in Moto 1 and a third-place finish in the second race.

Traders continue to think highly of Chase Sexton (+763), who is once more ranked third in odds. He did not look particularly crisp last week in Michigan, but he scored a top-five based on results of fifth and fourth. Surprisingly, his podium odds (as well as those for Jett and Hunter) were suggested to be at the same prohibitive level as Jett’s championship line.

Tomac’s (1569) mechanical issue in Moto 1 altered the equation significantly. He was a compelling choice last week at +833 and is even more so at Spring Creek.

Sexton (-173) and Tomac (+129) are also listed in a head-to-head matchup this week. At this stage of the season, Tomac is in better race shape. If he can put last week behind him, this could be an interesting wager.

RJ Hampshire (-121) faces off against Tony Cairoli (-109) in another matchup. This is a novelty bet at best, but the debut of Ducati went well at RedBud, and they have had a week to work out the mechanical that sidelined Cairoli in Moto 2.

Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win

Jett Lawrence, -800
Hunter Lawrence, +475
Chase Sexton, +763
Eli Tomac, +1569
Justin Cooper, +3290
Aaron Plessinger, +3576
RJ Hampshire, +5888
Tony Cairoli, +6436
Cooper Webb, +11805
Jason Anderson, +11805
Jorge Prado, +13058
Justin Barcia, +13058
Malcolm Stewart, +13058
Coty Schock, +13985
Harri Kullas, +13985
Joey Savatgy, +14606
Benoit Paturel, +14606
Valentin Guillod, +15052
Marshal Weltin, +15052
Colt Nichols, +15285
Derek Kelley, +15285
Romain Pape, +15285
Lorenzo Locurcio, +15285
Grant Harlan, +15285

Opening Odds, Overall Podium

Jett Lawrence, -9999900
Hunter Lawrence, -9999900
Chase Sexton, -9999900
Eli Tomac, -259
Aaron Plessinger, -126
Justin Cooper, -109
RJ Hampshire, +280
Cooper Webb, +773
Jason Anderson, +834
Justin Barcia, +1247
Jorge Prado, +1483
Tony Cairoli, +3437
Malcolm Stewart, +4230
Joey Savatgy, +4230
Harri Kullas, +4230
Benoit Paturel, +4230
Coty Schock, +4230
Grant Harlan, +4230
Valentin Guillod, +4230
Marshal Weltin, +4230
Lorenzo Locurcio, +4230
Colt Nichols, +4230
Romain Pape, +4230
Derek Kelley, +4230