Slack Rain and Frost Threats in Brazil Push Coffee Prices Sharply Higher

Rich Asplund

Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:31 PM 4 min read

September arabica coffee (KCU25) Monday closed up +11.50 (+3.65%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) closed up +99 (+2.55%).

Coffee prices recovered from early losses Monday and rallied sharply.  Short covering emerged in coffee futures Monday due to below-normal rainfall in Brazil, following a report by Somar Meteorologia that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended June 21.

• Coffee Prices Rebound on Slack Rain in Brazil

• Cocoa Prices Surge as Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Slow

• Sugar Prices Pressured by the Outlook for Adequate Supplies

• Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines.

Gains in coffee prices accelerated Monday due to the risk of frost in Brazil.  Meteorologist Rural Clima said that below-normal temperatures and threats of frost are possible in Brazil over the next 72 hours, which could affect the coffee-growing regions of São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past seven weeks, with arabica coffee falling to a 5-1/4 month low last Wednesday and robusta sliding to a 13-month low today due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies.

Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest is weighing on prices as Safras & Mercado recently reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%.  The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11.  Brazil’s arabica harvest has been slowed by heavy rain in some areas.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced last Wednesday that its members reported the coffee harvest was 17.8% complete as of June 13.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter of coffee.

On May 19, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Robusta coffee prices have underlying support as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low Monday of 5,137 lots.  In a bearish factor for arabica prices, however, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 865,898 bags as of Monday.