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Russian (RU) Ricardo Pillai
Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 12:15 PM 3 min read
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We came across a bullish thesis on Redwire Corporation (RDW) on r/wallstreetbets Subreddit by moopie45. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RDW. Redwire Corporation (RDW)'s share was trading at $15.99 as of 3rd July.
A high-tech robotic drone, showcasing the companys advancements in unmanned aerial systems.
Redwire (RDW) has transformed from a fragmented space tech company into a strategically aligned, growth-focused platform following its acquisition of Edge Autonomy, a profitable UAV defense manufacturer, and a $260M capital raise.
The acquisition marks a pivotal shift, bringing RDW into the high-margin tactical drone market while enhancing its defense and international reach. The combined company now boasts a diversified portfolio spanning avionics, sensors, propulsion, and in-space manufacturing, ranging from 3D printing to biotech like organ and drug production in microgravity.
Edge Autonomy’s $115M in 2023 revenue and deep defense relationships position RDW as a top-tier UAV player, with strong synergy across surveillance and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems.
The recent capital raise strengthens the balance sheet by funding the Edge acquisition, repurchasing convertible preferred shares, and fueling strategic growth—reducing dilution risk and improving RDW’s financial profile.
With a $6B pipeline and $500M+ in Q1 2025 bids (pre-Edge), RDW is poised for a ~23% CAGR through 2026, further boosted by proprietary programs like Valkyrie Hall Effect Thrusters (up to $150M annual revenue potential).
Its “Golden Dome” Colorado facility anchors its RF systems and antenna production, supporting contracts across missile defense, space stations, and lunar exploration. Redwire’s integration of space and drone technologies aligns with rising global defense budgets and space commercialization.
Now EBITDA-positive and trading at a discounted ~5x sales multiple versus peers at 10x, RDW offers a rare opportunity: a de-risked, multi-pronged aerospace platform with clear catalysts for re-rating and long-term strategic relevance in defense and space.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Intuitive Machines (LUNR) by Deep Value Return in June 2025, which highlighted the company’s post-mission-failure resilience, accelerating revenue growth, and deep value multiple. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately 0.9% since our coverage. This is because the thesis has yet to play out amid execution wait-and-see. moopie45 shares a similar view but emphasizes Redwire’s diversified aerospace-defense model and stronger near-term catalysts following its Edge Autonomy acquisition.
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