Market outlook cautious as FIIs, global risks keep investors on edge: Sunil Subramaniam

The market movement this past week can be explained quite clearly if you look at the flows. Market expert Sunil Subramaniam in an interview to ET Now said that domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have remained consistent buyers, even during the volatility. The pressure has come entirely from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), whose selling has intensified this week after briefly easing last week.

“I would again point it out to only one factor — the Trump factor, the uncertainty that he has been causing and not only in terms of today's pharma announcement, I think he has also met with the Pakistan prime minister,” Subramaniam said.

He noted that about 40% of FII flows into India originate from the US. “So obviously what happens vis-à-vis America has a big significant telling on the FII flows into the country and it is that single thing and pharma announcement today has not helped but even otherwise I think that only if there is some optimism around the trade deal happening comes through you are likely to see a reversal, otherwise the degree of correction that has happened is not enough for FII to look at India as a value market,” he said.

The irony is that the actual impact of these announcements on Indian companies is limited. For instance, the top five IT firms together took only about 13,000 H-1B visas last year, which is a small number relative to their scale. Similarly, most pharma exports are generics, which weren’t directly targeted. Yet markets reacted sharply because FIIs worry about the broader direction Trump might take. Will H-1B restrictions become a recurring issue every year? Could generic drugs be included in future policy changes? This persistent uncertainty drives selling, regardless of the immediate fundamentals.

“So, I think that the Trump premium for equities in India has shot up and naturally that has an impact What has not also helped is the rupee weakening, because that is hurting and the news around the European front that if Europe and NATO get into war against Russia, then Russia supplies a lot of natural gas to Europe, so what is going to happen to oil prices? So, these are all uncertainties, all entirely from an FII perspective. So, I will summarize it by saying, bull economy bear market,” he pointed out.

Next week, both FIIs and the rupee are likely to remain under pressure. Friday’s news, especially the pharma announcement and ongoing uncertainty around H-1B visas, leaves investors hesitant, as there is no clear path for planning over the weekend. The rupee’s weakness, Subramaniam pointed out, is partly due to strong US GDP data, which has strengthened the dollar, while global crude price risks and geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia’s military moves in Europe, are adding to the uncertainty.

This combination of factors—external policy uncertainty, currency volatility, and crude price risks—creates a challenging environment for the market. “So, for the coming week I do not think there is any clear direction that you will get which is going to be a positive direction because unless I do not see Mr Trump or anybody in the mood of saying anything Mr Piyush Goyal’s visit to the US is a more important one,” he said.

October is likely to be a crossover period for FIIs. They tend to assess one-year forward valuations during this time, which could ease selling pressure, provided there is positive news on trade deals, H-1B visas, or pharma regulations. Until then, markets will remain highly news-driven and reactive to global and US-centric developments.

For a shorter-term horizon of around six months, Subramaniam said he would focus on consumer-facing sectors like consumer discretionary, autos, and consumer durables. With Diwali and the Christmas season extending, these segments are likely to see robust sales. The positive seasonal momentum will be reflected in topline growth, and even if companies offer discounts, the overall performance should support stability. Consumer discretionary stocks may face the least resistance to correction in this period, making them suitable for tactical positioning.

For a longer-term outlook of 12 to 15 months, it is an opportune time to start accumulating domestic-facing stocks while diversifying within the domestic space. The ongoing consumption boom, driven by seasonal demand and GST cuts, is likely to improve capacity utilization in consumer companies, setting the stage for private capex.

“Real estate is not something that you buy at festival time, rather you buy something you display like an auto or a refrigerator or something like that. So, the impact of the GST cut which is there on cement and other input cost, plus the bank EMI cuts will mean that real estate will be the place where people can upgrade their houses or in affordable housing people buy their first homes. But the real estate sector needs some time to take those new plots of land on the outskirts of the city, plan an affordable housing project, and then launch it because right now their focus is only on the high end because that is what has been selling. So, give it that time, I would say six to nine months’ time if you give it, real estate should be a good pickup from the GST,” Subramaniam said.

Additionally, industrial capital goods, steel, and cement should benefit as private capex ramps up, particularly through SMEs and MSMEs, where PSU banks will play a critical lending role. With interest rates in the 12–14% range, both loan growth and margins are expected to be strong, he said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)