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History doubts Giants will beat Chargers in Jaxson Dart’s first start. So how will league judge whether the rookie QB has success?

When the call came Tuesday, Jaxson Dart FaceTimed his mom. His dad was already in town, but the Dart boys had news: Jaxson would be starting for the New York Giants — this weekend and, until further notice, for the remainder of his rookie season.

That the 25th overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft is getting an opportunity to start this season isn’t a surprise to anyone following the Giants. But Dart’s chance to start indefinitely after just three weeks of 2025 is far less expected.

Only 38 days prior, Giants head coach Brian Daboll was throwing Dart into a preseason game midseries in a move so random that Dart wasn’t sure if this was another Daboll joke.

Preseason success and six regular-season snaps, including one dropback opportunity, followed. But still, in the Giants’ 0-3 start, Dart did not throw the football.

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Now, with a 3-0 Los Angeles Chargers team coming to town, the Giants have benched Russell Wilson in favor of their 22-year-old quarterback. The timing of such a decision has not historically produced immediate success.

Should the Giants have waited one more week to start Dart against a New Orleans Saints that has yet to win a game? An argument could be made.

Starting Dart against an undefeated Chargers team? Rookie quarterbacks have gone 0-4 making their first career start against an undefeated team in Week 4 or later since 2000, per Next Gen Stats. The last quarterback to beat an undefeated team in Week 4 or later in his rookie debut was Phil Simms when he faced the 5-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1979.

So while the Giants will of course want to beat the Chargers, they’ll need additional metrics to judge Dart’s success in his regular-season starting debut. Yahoo Sports surveyed coaching and talent evaluator sources in the league to determine what else should drive a fair evaluation.

Coaches and evaluators want to see: Will Dart get in and out of the huddle efficiently enough to avoid delay of game penalties and illegal shifts? Will he see his progressions well, handle a full complement of play calls and go through his progressions?

“If he’s hanging in there and making good throws against pressure and has a good vibe to him and an energy that guys feed off and believe in, that will say a lot about what his teammates think of him,” one NFC offensive assistant told Yahoo Sports.

Dart echoed similar sentiments in his first media conference as the Giants’ named starter.

“I think the biggest thing for me, I want to do my best to be a spark,” Dart said. “I want to create excitement on the field. I want to be explosive when opportunities are there.

“Try to just bring a little bit of swagger.”

Why debut success for Jaxson Dart doesn’t require he ‘light the world on fire’

Considering reasonable metrics for Dart this week, the NFC offensive assistant pegged an ironic comparison: Justin Herbert, whose Chargers Dart will face.

As the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Chargers won just six of 15 games Herbert started as a rookie even as he tossed 31 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. The quarterback’s ability was evident in an Offensive Rookie of the Year season even as the Chargers did not always power his strengths to wins.

The Chargers saw something more than just his numbers.

“With Herbert, you could tell he had the arm, the toughness, ripping NFL throws,” the NFC assistant told Yahoo Sports. “Not rattled by anything and was able to move his team down the field from the jump.

“Defenses had to defend the whole field.”

If Dart earns a similar scouting report in the coming weeks, the Giants should consider their decision a success.

Dart’s preseason results exceeded external expectations, the Ole Miss product completing 68% (32 of 47) of his passes for 372 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He complemented his 113.1 passer rating with another 52 yards and a touchdown on six carries.

Similar operational fluidity may be more important this week than spectacular stats.

“Playing with confidence and poise,” an AFC talent evaluator told Yahoo Sports. “Doesn’t need to light the world on fire, just prove he can operate the offense coherently, make the right adjustments and show the lights aren’t too bright.”

Dart seems interested in similar results, downplaying a question he fielded this week about fans hoping he will be a “savior” of Giants football.

“That word or that phrase doesn’t really go in my head,” Dart said. “I feel like as a unit on the field, especially as an offense, everybody has to be in sync. There can’t just be attention on one guy to carry the load of everything.

“My focus is on the guys and on the players around me. It has nothing to do with myself.”

Underrated key to Dart’s success: staying on the field

An NFC talent evaluator drilled down further on what strong decision-making and composed football might look like.

This isn’t about showing off an arm, as 2025 first overall draft pick Cam Ward did on a precarious albeit highlight-reel-worthy touchdown in Week 2 vs. the Rams. Plays like that invite heavy risk amid the possibility of reward, an exciting but not sustainable formula to win.

Instead, the NFC talent evaluator wants to see Dart stay on the field.

“Not being flustered, being able to sustain long drives and have passing success,” the evaluator told Yahoo Sports.

That battle could be uphill for a Giants team that ranks second-worst in third-down conversion, completing just 20% of third-down attempts through three weeks.

Against the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend, the Giants converted just one of 10 third-down tries.

On five drives vs. the Chiefs, New York failed to stay on the field more than five plays. The result of each of those series: punt, interception, interception, punt and turnover on downs.

The Giants have ranked 27th in points per game and 31st in offensive success rate, per Next Gen Stats. They need the spark that Dart seeks to bring — in the end zone and in sustaining drives to wear down defenses and give their own defensive teammates a breather.

Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen need Dart’s spark acutely, too. Giants team owner John Mara made clear the Giants must produce results in 2025 for Daboll and Schoen to last to 2026.

So Daboll and Schoen, who came from the Buffalo Bills group that discovered and developed reigning MVP Josh Allen, traded back into the first round to select Dart. The brain trust valued Dart’s athleticism, anticipation and a caliber of arm strength that they believed could handle Northeast weather patterns. They coveted his competitive fire that matched the energy Daboll brings.

Daboll said repeatedly this week that starting Dart so soon was his decision. He knew, in saying that, it would further tie his fate to that of Dart.

“He just needs to go out there and do his job,” Daboll said. “Just make good decisions, throw the ball where he needs to throw it, make loose plays if he needs to make loose plays, take care of it. He doesn't have to do any more than that. There will be a lot of things to learn from. I've done this once before. It's not perfect.

“But I know he's doing everything he can do to get ready to play this game and that's all you can ask for.”

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