From Nifty’s 8-day streak to fresh stock bets: Rupak De’s playbook for the week ahead

Nifty’s eight-day winning streak reflects a cautious yet positive undertone, says Rupak De of LKP Securities. He sees limited IT upside, defence stocks on the radar, and expiry shifts still in discovery mode. For the week, his top picks include Railtel, Cochin Shipyard, and Bajaj Finance.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

Nifty has now recorded a feat of 8 consecutive positive endings, but the movement in those 8 days hasn’t been that sharp. How do you see the index’s trajectory ahead when it seems to be making slow but steady strides?

The Nifty’s recent up move looks more like a cautious rally rather than a sharp price rise, as investors embrace both positive and negative news. The index is consolidating gains, gradually building a base. As long as it holds above key support around 24,850, the bias remains positive. A decisive move above 25,150 could open the doors towards 25,500 in the short term.

Banks kept pace with the rally, but IT surprised. Do you think that it’s going to be curtains down for tech in the week ahead?

IT’s bounce was largely led by short-covering and value buying at lower levels. A rise towards 38000 in the short term looks possible, while support is placed at 35500. Weakness might resume if Nifty IT falls below 35500. Overall, I see IT in a sideways-to-positive range rather than a sustained rally.

Now that we have seen two weeks of expiry days swapping between BSE and NSE. What is your overall reading of the shift? What impact can you see on volumes and premiums?

The expiry-day swapping is still in a price discovery phase. Initially, we are seeing fragmentation of volumes as traders adjust to the new system. Over time, liquidity will likely concentrate where cost-efficiency and transparency are better. Premiums may remain volatile in the short run, but in the long term, competition could bring efficiency and narrower spreads.

From whatever we have heard on the Street, Sebi is considering ending weekly expiries. Do you think it would be a good idea to control the F&O mess? Is the Indian market ready for long-dated options?

Weekly expiries have undoubtedly added speculative froth, but they also provide hedging flexibility and liquidity. Removing them altogether may hurt participation and market depth. Instead, measures like higher margins for short-term trades or curbs on excessive retail leverage could be more effective. As for long-dated options, while they exist globally, the Indian market still lacks depth beyond near-month contracts. So, it may take time before long-dated options gain meaningful traction.

BSE shares ended the week 5% lower amid newsflow around more curbs being imposed by Sebi in the derivatives market. Where do you see the stock moving ahead in the week?

Following a sharp correction, the stock has formed a bullish harami pattern on the daily chart, indicating an initial sign of recovery in the short term. A sustained rally from the current level looks possible upon a decisive move above 2210. Support on the lower end is placed at 2140.

Given the sharp upmove in defence stocks on Friday, would any of them be on your radar in the week ahead? Do you think the rally will sustain?

Defence stocks bounced back sharply on renewed hopes around export opportunities and government-led initiatives in the sector. Counters like BEL, BDL, and HAL, which had been moving sideways for the last few months, suddenly saw fresh buying interest. The long-term story for defence remains very strong, but after a sharp one-day rally, some consolidation can’t be ruled out. Having said that, dips in quality names like BEL, BDL, and HAL are likely to attract buyers, so I’d keep them on the radar for sustained momentum.

Give us your stock ideas for the week:

Buy Railtel at Rs 371.5 CMP. Target price: Rs 400. Stop loss: Rs 360

Railtel has seen a smart recovery after taking support around the ₹330 zone. The stock has moved above the 21-day EMA, indicating a shift in momentum on the short-term charts. Volumes have picked up along with price action, suggesting renewed buying interest. RSI has also inched higher and moved above the 50 mark, supporting the bullish bias. Going forward, as long as it sustains above ₹360, the stock may move towards ₹385–400 levels, while immediate support lies at ₹360.

Buy Cochin Shipyard above Rs 1,750. Target price: Rs 1,900. Stop loss: Rs 1,700

Cochin Shipyard witnessed a strong recovery after a prolonged decline, as the stock surged with heavy volumes on Friday. The price has managed to reclaim the 21-day EMA, reflecting a shift in momentum towards the bulls. On the daily chart, the large bullish candle indicates strong buying interest from lower levels. Meanwhile, the RSI has also moved higher, suggesting rising strength in the trend. Going forward, a sustained move above 1,750 could open the gates for 1,850-1900 on the higher side, while immediate support is placed around 1,700.

Buy Bajaj Finance around Rs 980. Target price: Rs 1,050. Stop loss: Rs 944

Bajaj Finance Ltd is trading at Rs 1,003.25 on NSE, extending its sharp September rally. The stock has staged a strong recovery from August lows near Rs 850, comfortably trading above the 21-EMA, highlighting a firm bullish trend. However, an RSI above 80 indicates overbought conditions, raising the risk of a near-term pause or profit-booking. Volumes have picked up, confirming strong participation in the upmove. While the trend remains positive, the overextended momentum suggests chances of consolidation before the next leg higher. Fresh longs should be taken on corrections for better risk management.