From nadir to not out of it in three weeks

What was the nadir for the 2025 Texas Rangers?

One can argue it was June 6, when they managed only two hits while being shut out by the Washington Nationals. Aside from the fact that, well, they managed just two hits while being shut out by the Washington Nationals, it dropped the team to 29-35, with the six games under .500 being the low water mark for the year. It was the final game of a stretch where the team went 4-13, dropping from second place in the division and 1.5 games out to fourth place and 6.5 games out.

But that was early in the year. The offense had played horribly, but the feeling was that the team couldn’t possibly continue to hit that poorly all year. There was ample time for the team to improve, to get back into the playoff race. No need to panic.

No, I’d say that the actual nadir for the 2025 Texas Rangers came on August 21.

The Rangers lost that afternoon in Kansas City, dropping to 63-66 on the season, 7.5 games back in the American League West, 5.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot, and with Kansas City and Cleveland 3.5 and 2.5 games ahead of them, respectively. They were in a 3-11 stretch that included losing two of three to the D-Backs at the Shed and then being swept by the Phillies at home. Fangraphs had the team’s playoff odds at that point at 6.7%, and even that seemed high.

But the loss to Kansas City wasn’t the worst thing that happened in regards to the Rangers’ playoff hopes in that game. Marcus Semien fouled a ball off of his foot, and ended up getting replaced later in the game by Ezequiel Duran. Evan Carter was hit by a pitch, and was replaced by Alejandro Osuna. It turned out that each suffered a fracture on those plays in that game, ended up on the injured list, and haven’t played since. Two of the Rangers’ best regulars, lost on the same day that the Rangers lost their 11th game out of their last 14.

If that’s not a nadir, I don’t know what is.

The next day, Nathan Eovaldi pitched 7 innings in what ultimately was a 4-3 walkoff win against the Guardians. That was the last time Eovaldi pitched — he landed on the injured list with a rotator cuff issues that almost certainly has ended his year. The Rangers’ best pitcher, gone.

August 28, its announced that Corey Seager would be undergoing an appendectomy and would miss an unknown amount of time. The Rangers’ best position player, gone.

Oh, and Adolis Garcia, who was on the injured list as of the nadir date, returned a couple of days after the KC disaster and tore it up for the next nine games, posting an OPS over 1000, but left the game on September 1 due to a quad strain that landed him on the injured list since.

After the Seager news broke, I wrote about the rash of injuries that the Rangers suffered in August, and how the spate of medical issues had de-railed the Rangers’ playoff hopes. Fangraphs had the Rangers’ playoff odds at 4.8% on August 28, the lowest they’d been all season.

It felt, at that point, like the chances of making the playoffs was effectively zero.

But 4.8% isn’t zero. It is a small likelihood, of course, but it is in the realm of not completely out of the question. Its about the same as the likelihood of Adolis Garcia drawing a walk, using 2025 numbers. About the same as the likelihood of Pete Alonso homering or Corey Seager homering. Its about 50% more likely than Luis Arraez striking out. Its rolling a natural 20.

Now, in any given instance, the odds are against any of those things happening, but they aren’t shocking. When Corey Seager hits a homer, we aren’t running around saying “OMG, I can’t believe Corey Seager homered, what were the odds?” Adolis Garcia drawing a walk isn’t lightning striking. The Rangers, at that point, coming back and making the playoffs wouldn’t be a black swan event.

But the odds are heavily against it. And missing the playoffs felt inevitable.

And what happened? Since that August 21 loss, the Rangers are 14-4. They swept the Guardians at home, won two out of three against Anaheim, went to Sacramento and swept the Athletics, went 1-2 in Arizona, took two of three back home against the Astros, and then just swept the Milwaukee Brewers, the team with the best record in baseball.

In that span, Houston has gone 9-9, meaning the Rangers have made up 4.5 games on them. The Mariners have gone 10-8, so Texas has made up 3.5 games on them. The Guardians and Royals have fallen back, leaving no one else between the Rangers and Seattle, the team currently clinging to the third Wild Card spot.

In that stretch the Rangers have scored 103 runs, third best in the majors. They’ve allowed 59 runs in that stretch, third fewest in the majors. Their wRC+ of 116 is seventh best, though Fangraphs is still treating the Shed as more or less neutral, so I think their “true” wRC+ should be higher. Their xERA of 3.71 is seventh best in MLB over that time, so there’s an argument that they’ve had some good fortunate pitching-wise, but they’ve also had some excellent defense, which helps in this regard.

Eight hitters have a wRC+ of at least 112 in that stretch — Jake Burger, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Michael Helman, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, Joc Pederson, and Alejandro Osuna. Yes, even our favorite whipping boys for this season, Josh Jung and Joc Pederson, have been raking — 127 wRC+ for Jung in that stretch, 112 wRC+ for Pederson.

Pitching? 17 players have taken the mound for the Rangers since the team’s nadir. Three of them — Cole Winn, Robert Garcia, and Ezequiel Duran — have not allowed a run. 10 others have ERAs between 1 and 3. Jacob deGrom and his 2.93 ERA over that stretch has the 13th best ERA for the team from August 22 to the present.

Now, the pitchers who have been bad have been very, very bad — Chris Martin, Caleb Boushley, Hoby Milner and Danny Coulombe have combined to allow 22 runs in 12.2 IP — but let’s not focus on that. Let’s talk about how the other 13 pitchers have put up a 2.20 ERA over this three week period.

Amazing, isn’t it?

And look, I know the Rangers still have an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Seattle has the tiebreaker, so the Rangers are really three games back in the loss column from Seattle. The Mets, who the Rangers play in New York this weekend, have been awful of late, but they are still have quality team fighting for a playoff spot. Three games in Houston gives the Rangers a prime opportunity to make up ground with the Astros, but it also is a prime opportunity to lose ground. A bad road trip and we could be, a week from now, doing a eulogy for the Rangers’ playoff chances, talking about how the magical recent run came to an end and the little rascals got spanked and how the Rangers are now playing out the string.

But with 15 games to go, the Rangers’ playoff odds are at 26.0%, per Fangraphs. One in four odds.

A remarkable turnaround from the nadir, three weeks ago.

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