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Fantasy Football: One stat geared towards predicting RB success — and could help identify the next breakout star

In the NFL, not all runs are created equal.

When we’re talking about trying to find the next big thing at running back, there is one specific skill that you are better off looking for. And it’s a skill we almost never talk about in fantasy football.

It’s not size or speed, although those traits certainly help.

The skill I’m talking about is whether a running back can hit the outside effectively and explosively.

I’ve worked with Next Gen Stats and advanced stats for the past decade plus and something I learned very early on in the process is that while between-the-tackle runs generally keep an offense on track, if you’re looking to hit a home run, you’re more likely to find it by running to the outside.

If you obsess over this fake game called fantasy football, you likely know that Kyle Shanahan has been a kingmaker at the running back position. He’s regularly turned unknown randoms into highly productive fantasy backs.

For my fellow old heads playing fantasy football, you know that before Kyle, there was his dad Mike Shanahan. And for over a decade in Denver, the elder’s right-hand man was Gary Kubiak.

But wherever these gentlemen ended up, out-of-nowhere running backs would dominate the stat sheet.

For Mike Shanahan you saw Terrell Davis rack up 2,000+ yards in the Mile High and Clinton Portis run wild in both Denver and Washington.

For Kubiak, Arian Foster posted an astonishing 2,200-yard season in Houston. Justin Forsett in Baltimore, at the age of 29, shockingly posted a 1,500 yard season when Kubes was the OC.

There’s a lot of other names I could wax poetically about but the point is, the Shanahans and the Kubiaks employed a heavy outside zone run scheme. Emphasis on outside.

But let’s not just talk about this anecdotally, this is an advanced stats column after all.

Per Next Gen Stats, while running backs averaged about 4.4 yards per carry on both inside and outside runs in 2024, there was a noticeable difference on how those yards came.

Inside run attempts had a 9.7% explosive run rate (10+ yards) while outside runs boasted an 11.0% explosive run rate. Outside runs lead to more run stuffs and negative plays but also lead to more big, chunk runs.

Going further, while running backs league wide ran to the outside roughly the same amount of times as they ran to the inside, of the top 15 rushers last year, 10 of them ran to the outside more than between the tackles.

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Of those five who ran more inside than outside, Kyren Williams plays for Sean McVay (one of the best run designers in the NFL) and Jonathan Taylor was forced into the Anthony Richardson RPO scheme where I would argue his talent carried him about as far as it could and well beyond what a league average back could do. The three other top running backs who ran more inside than outside were Josh Jacobs, Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle.

So like any skill/stat there are always going to be exceptions. But for the most part, whether by scheme or skill/athleticism, the most productive backs tend to find a way to get outside.

Applying these thoughts to this year’s running backs, and combining that with some of the RB charting I’ve done, let’s try to identify some sleepers, some buy-low candidates and potential pitfalls.

Buy/Hold

Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars

I’ve been saying all offseason that after charting ETN that the rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. He was running behind a bad offensive line last year and an even worse run scheme. He was one of the best outside zone runners in the league last year as wild as that sounds.
I have no idea what Doug Pederson was coaching on some of these outside zone runs, but it was bad beyond belief. The Jags rarely assigned a backside blocker last year yet their backs were cutting back into those unblocked defenders on a huge portion of run plays. With Liam Coen leading the way, the scheme looked a lot cleaner.
Forget about the trade of Tank Bigsby for a second, Etienne ran for 143 yards despite running primarily between the tackles. His 56.3% inside run rate was markedly different from the rest of the team. Bhayshul Tuten ran outside on 66% of his plays and the aforementioned Bigsby on 80% of his plays. Expect a similar percentage moving forward for Etienne which could mean sustained success.

Ashton Jeanty, Raiders

I’m torn on this one. The Raiders inexplicably ran him outside on just 42.1% of his rush attempts in Week 1. I want to say there is no way a player who showed out on tape as an outside runner will continue to be asked to run between the tackles at this rate … but I’m honestly not sure.
For the time being, I’m going to trust in Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll and hope they call a different game for Jeanty moving forward.

Breece Hall, Jets

He’s another player I was touting this offseason. The vibes were off but the charting was right. He charted out as one of the best outside runners in 2024.
His 107 yards rushing on 19 carries in Week 1 is no fluke. He ran to the outside on 57.9% of his runs in Week 1 while averaging a chunky 6.91 ypc on those outside attempts. We’re hoping the Jets staff is sensible enough to maintain this level of outside runs for Hall.
He was also one of the best pass blockers I saw last year, meaning he should be a lock to stay on the field on passing downs.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts

With a functional NFL quarterback under center, JT can do what he does best and that is bounce to the outside.
The Toolman’s outside run rate jumped from 41.9% last year to 55.6% this year with Daniel Jones manning the quarterback spot. Sky’s the limit with Taylor running designed run plays and not those low percentage RPO plays we saw last year where he was asked to basically do everything on his own.

Sleepers

Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt, Commanders

He only played 29% of the snaps in Week 1 but you should expect that number to grow with Jeremy McNichols likely to be phased out.
The artist known as Bill had three explosive runs (30% explosive run rate) and two of the three runs were to the outside.
A good 60% of his runs were to the outside, where he averaged an eye-catching 11.8 yards per carry.

Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars

The team traded away Tank Bigsby, a sign that Jacksonville is most likely dedicated to running outside, an area where Bigsby struggles and Tuten thrives.
I charted Tuten this summer and while he was one of the worst inside runners I charted, he was far and away the best outside zone runner I recorded.
Tuten ran to the outside on 66.7% of his attempts Week 1, producing a woeful 1.5 ypc, but expect those numbers to turn around as the season wears on.

Sell/Beware

Alvin Kamara, Saints

One of my all-time favorite players, I feel bad putting him on this side of the ledger but with Klint Kubiak gone, Kellen Moore has the 30-year-old back running outside a lot less, going from a 73.7% outside run rate to 54.6% this year.
Kamara averaged 4.2 ypc on outside runs last year and 4.0 ypc between the hashes. It was even more dramatic Week 1. A whopping 82.2% of his rush yards came from the outside, where he averaged 6.17 ypc. On inside runs he averaged just 1.6 ypc last week.
It’s fair to wonder about a loss in efficiency and his health given his age.

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks

A preseason darling for me, I was overflowing with my praise for Walker in what I thought would be a perfect marriage to Kubiak’s outside zone run scheme.
One week in and I’m shook beyond belief.
I don’t know whether it’s injury or whether the team truly believes Zach Charbonnet is the better back (he’s not) but Walker played 40% of the snaps to Charbonnet’s 58%.
What’s even more confusing is that both backs ran inside/outside at the same rate. Again, last year the aforementioned Kamara posted a well over 70% outside run rate. For it to be an even 50% split inside/outside for both Walker and Charbonnet is wildly inconsistent with what Kubiak does from a scheme standpoint.
Let’s see where Walker is health wise or if this was just a one-game blip but be on high alert. Another game with these kinds of play time/directional splits and we need to be full sell mode.

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