Colorado's reload, Arizona State's repeat bid and the return of Utah and K-State

We've heard a lot about competitive balance lately. Nick Saban has been talking about it. Ted Cruz has been talking about it. People like me never really stop talking about it.

We all almost certainly have different ideas in mind when we use that term, but allow me to present to you a thought experiment: What if every conference were like the Big 12? What if half the games in the Big Ten went down to the wire in a given week? What if Vanderbilt or Mississippi State could randomly win the SEC out of nowhere? What if half the ACC were still in the mix for a conference title game spot in mid-November? That's a world in which I wouldn't mind living.

In 2024, only two of the four power conferences saw at least 43% of their conference games decided by one score: the Big 12 and the ACC. Only two had at least half their members finish within two games of the top of the standings: the Big 12 and the SEC. And of course, only one had an out-of-nowhere champion.

Preseason conference poll ranking for eventual 2024 champions
SEC: Georgia (first)
Big Ten: Oregon (second)
ACC: Clemson (second)
Big 12: Arizona State (16th)

The top five teams in last season's preseason Big 12 media poll (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona) ended up going a combined 26-35 overall and 13-32 in conference play. Only Kansas State ended up bowl eligible. Meanwhile, the bottom five teams in the poll (Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Baylor) went a combined 39-25 (26-19).

Arizona State was picked 16th out of 16 teams with good reason: The Sun Devils had gone just 3-9 the year before, one game out of the Pac-12 cellar. An early run of tight wins over mediocre-to-decent teams assured them of a surprisingly solid season, and a late surge brought them not only a conference title game berth but also a blowout win over Iowa State in said title game. They damn near beat Texas in the College Football Playoff, too. It was an incredible rags-to-riches tale, one that it seems the Big 12 is infinitely more likely to consistently deliver moving forward.

In response to last year's incredibly inaccurate poll, the Big 12 elected to drop the preseason poll altogether, which is frankly silly. But fear not: Last year's Big 12 SP+ projections were nearly as inaccurate! So, we can still make fun of the numbers in a few more months, right? It's time to talk about the most unpredictable, wonderfully nonsense-heavy power conference in college football.

Let's preview the Big 12!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC, Indie/Pac-12 and ACC previews.

2024 recap

Indeed, the final 2024 standings were almost a complete flip from what was expected. And as always in this conference, close games told the tale.

Arizona State and Iowa State went a combined 11-3 in one-score finishes last season and therefore reached the Big 12 championship game. Utah and Kansas went a combined 2-10 in such games and surprisingly missed out on bowl bids altogether. Texas Tech still managed to disappoint a bit despite close-game magic -- the Red Raiders were 6-1 in one-score games but only 2-4 in all others -- and although BYU did the best job of mixing overall quality (17th in SP+) and solid close-game performance (4-2 in one-scores), late-season losses by four points (to Kansas, of all teams) and five points (to ASU) kept it out of the title game. And after all the chaos, ASU hit fifth gear late in the season and genuinely played like a top-10 team over its final three games.

Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team's returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

Obviously the bar for what constitutes strong continuity has shifted pretty massively in recent years, but with eight of the top 22 teams in the returning production rankings and the best returning production average in the country, the Big 12 has more continuity than any other conference. Seven teams return at least 145 of last year's starts, and five brought in more than 125 FBS starts from elsewhere.

Arizona State returns most of the reasons for last year's late surge (Cam Skattebo aside), and Texas Tech both returns a lot and welcomes one of the nation's most intriguing transfer classes. But Baylor, Kansas State, Arizona and Utah all boast high experience levels, and even at the bottom of the league, teams like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Colorado are bringing in big transfer hauls that could make them either quite a bit better or worse. (Well, it probably won't make Oklahoma State demonstrably worse -- the Cowboys were quite bad by the end of 2024.)

2025 projections

With Kansas State finishing last season second in the conference in SP+ and enjoying top-15 returning production levels, the Wildcats start out atop the pack. The next six teams are all within 1.2 points of each other, and the eighth-ranked team (Baylor) is only slightly more than a touchdown behind K-State. Last year, 43% of conference games were decided by one score. I demand 60% or higher this year.

(Note: These projections are from my May SP+ update, which didn't take into account recent developments regarding BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff. His future with the team remains uncertain at the moment, but without him BYU's ranking would fall to around 32nd, and the Cougars' average win total would be cut by 0.3 to 0.5 games. That's not as much of a drop as I expected, honestly, but keep it in mind.)

Eight teams have at least a 6% chance at the Big 12 title, and no one has better than a 1-in-6 chance. And everyone has at least a 1-in-50 chance. Yes. Bring it on.

Five best games of 2025

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin (Aug. 23). This might be my favorite Week 0 game yet. Not only do we get a Farmageddon matchup in just about the best dairy land in the world, but we also get one of the biggest games of the Big 12 season before Week 1 even rolls around.

TCU at Kansas State (Oct. 11). TCU and Baylor both surged in the late stages of 2024, though unlike Arizona State, they each did it when it was too late to make a mark in the conference title race. The Horned Frogs have quite a bit of reason for optimism, but by the time this Week 7 matchup is done, they'll have played at both Arizona State and K-State. A conference title run might require a win at one or the other.

Texas Tech at Arizona State (Oct. 18). The defending champ against the offseason's buzziest team. The Red Raiders took down ASU in Lubbock, Texas, last season 30-22, but it was well before the Sun Devils found fifth gear. Which team will be in proper midseason form for this one?

Texas Tech at Kansas State (Nov. 1). It appears the schedule makers decreed K-State and Tech to be the most impactful teams in this year's title race -- if they don't win it themselves, they'll decide who does.

Kansas State at Utah (Nov. 22). Another K-State game! Goodness. Utah went from title favorite to 2-7 in conference play last season, but a redesigned offense and better injury luck (and the resulting better close-games fortune) could produce a 180-degree turnaround. If so, this one could decide a spot in the title game.

Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Kansas State Wildcats

Head coach: Chris Klieman (seventh year, 48-28 overall)

2025 projection: 18th in SP+, 9.0 average wins (6.3 in the Big 12)

In his first season as Kansas State's starting quarterback, Avery Johnson threw for at least 250 yards four times and, not including sacks, rushed for at least 80 yards four times. His best performances were awesome enough that, in the Wildcats' nine wins, they averaged 37.6 points per game. He gave us quite a few glimpses of the potential he was supposed to have when he came to Manhattan as the No. 3 dual-threat QB in the class of 2023 (and one of K-State's most celebrated signings in quite a while).

He also had some absolute duds. He threw two picks in three of the Wildcats' four losses. He went 12-for-28 against Iowa State. For as good as the good performances were, K-State averaged just 15.8 points in its four losses, three of which came in November as the Wildcats tumbled out of the Big 12 title race.

At this point, we've grown accustomed enough to transfers and quick fixes that it's become easy to forget something: Johnson's 2024 is how things are supposed to go. You're not supposed to arrive in the starting lineup fully formed. With former K-State starter Will Howard leaving to pilot eventual national champion Ohio State, Klieman's Wildcats rode with a QB who had massive upside and lessons to learn, and now he has learned a lot of those lessons. It's hard to say Johnson is absolutely going to become a dynamite passer -- he finished last season with 10 picks and a 58% completion rate -- but he's a human third-down conversion with his feet, and he'll have some other exciting playmakers around him this fall. Running back Dylan Edwards averaged 7.4 yards per carry last season (he rushed for 196 yards in a bowl win over Rutgers), slot receiver Jayce Brown averaged 17.5 yards per catch, and among incoming transfers, running back Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana) rushed for 1,228 yards, receiver Caleb Medford (New Mexico) averaged 18.7 yards per catch, and receiver Jerand Bradley (Boston College/Texas Tech) has averaged 14.0 yards per catch over four seasons.

With three starters gone up front, Klieman added four transfer linemen to pair with all-conference center Sam Hecht, and we'll see if there are some glitches there. But if the blocking holds up -- it usually does at K-State -- and new offensive coordinator Matt Wells can coax a bit more consistency out of Johnson, this could be a top-10 offense.

The defense has been strangely consistent under coordinator Joe Klanderman, ranking between 25th and 34th in defensive SP+ for four straight seasons. The Wildcats were particularly aggressive last year, and they return four of the six players with at least six tackles for loss -- ends Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi and linebackers Desmond Purnell and Austin Romaine. Sacks leader Brendan Mott is gone, however, and if the pass rush regresses, that could add further strain for a secondary that got burned quite a bit in 2024 and lost four of last year's top five. Senior safety VJ Payne (five run stops, six passes defended) is a keeper, and I'm intrigued by West Georgia transfer Qua Moss (nine TFLs, four passes defended), but it's possible the defense becomes even more all-or-nothing than last year's.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (third year, 14-11 overall)

2025 projection: 22nd in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.7 in the Big 12)

It was clear from the start of 2024 that Arizona State was better than expected. The Sun Devils were projected 79th in SP+ but overachieved against projections in five of their first seven games and had risen to 52nd heading into November. There was no reason to think of them as playoff contenders -- they were 5-2 primarily because of tight wins over both decent (Kansas, Utah, Texas State) and bad (Mississippi State) teams -- but this was already an undeniably successful campaign for a program that had gone 6-18 over the previous two seasons.

Arizona State obviously had grander plans. Over their final seven games, the Sun Devils overachieved against projections by 18.2 points per game, winning their last five regular-season games, thumping Iowa State in the conference championship and coming within one play of beating Texas in the CFP. Their incredible surge showed us exactly the kind of fun storylines that can emerge in the era of an expanded playoff, where teams can have a lot to play for even after a couple of losses.

Running back Cam Skattebo became one of the faces of the 2024 season, finishing with 2,316 combined rushing and receiving yards. We'll find out exactly how important he was this fall because he's just about the only star gone.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt was almost as good as Skattebo down the stretch. From November onward, he ranked third nationally in Total QBR despite major injury issues in his receiving corps; he rarely puts the ball in a dangerous spot, and he's a fantastic scrambler. He gets leading receiver Jordyn Tyson back, along with tight end Chamon Metayer, but Tyson needed more help than he got last season, and the No. 2 leading returning wideout, Malik McClain, caught just two passes. Among McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and maybe young blue-chip transfers Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama), new weapons need to emerge out wide.

Skattebo was a spectacular security blanket with his efficient running and pass-catching abilities, but some combination of 2024 backup Kyson Brown, Army transfer Kanye Udoh and former blue-chipper Raleek Brown (injured for most of 2024) should be decent, at least. If nothing else, Brown appears to have equally dangerous receiving ability, and the blocking up front should be outstanding. Four O-line starters return, and Dillingham added senior tackle Jimeto Obigbo (Texas State).

Even with less obvious star power, the defense was just as responsible for ASU's late-season surge as the offense, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps last season, a whopping 14 return. Tackle C.J. Fite made 12 run stops (a huge total for a 310-pounder), end Elijah O'Neal made 12.5 TFLs, and corners Keith Abney II and Javan Robinson combined for six interceptions and 17 breakups last season. The pass rush was merely decent and will need to improve, but depth and experience will be major strengths.

It's hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one third, and while that wasn't enough to earn the trust of SP+ -- and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate -- enough of last year's key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head coach: Joey McGuire (fourth year, 23-16 overall)

2025 projection: 26th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.6 in the Big 12)

Three years into Joey McGuire's tenure at Texas Tech, things haven't really changed. The Red Raiders went 7-6 and ranked 40th in SP+ in Matt Wells' final season in charge, and they've averaged 7.7 wins and a No. 45 SP+ ranking since. A combination of good bounces and good close-game execution (with extreme fourth-down willingness) has helped McGuire's Red Raiders win a vast majority of their one-score finishes, but Tech hasn't really gotten better yet.

If that's going to change at some point, it will probably be this year -- because big checkbooks have brought a mega-class of transfers to town.

There are some solid offensive additions: USC running back Quinten Joyner (7.6 yards per carry), Miami (Ohio) receiver Reggie Virgil (19.9 yards per catch), Louisiana tight end Terrance Carter Jr. (10.4 yards per target), Incarnate Word receiver Roy Alexander (1,108 yards and 13 TDs), Miami (Ohio) left tackle Will Jados (second-team All-MAC). They should pair well with returnees such as veteran receivers Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin (combined: 1,529 yards, 13 TDs), sophomore RBs J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey, and two returning line starters. Former Texas State offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich takes over at OC, and although quarterback Behren Morton hasn't been amazing in Lubbock -- in parts of three seasons, he has produced a Total QBR between 51.6 and 56.0 all three years -- he'll have his best supporting cast yet. That's especially true if former blue-chip receiver Micah Hudson figures things out. He caught just eight passes as a freshman, announced his transfer to Texas A&M this offseason, then returned to Lubbock.

The defense might be the more interesting unit, and that's a rare thing to say regarding Tech. New coordinator Shiel Wood improved Houston's defense from 102nd to 54th in defensive SP+ in 2024, and he'll have some incredible transfers to work with at every level of the defense. Defensive tackles A.J. Holmes Jr. (Houston), Lee Hunter (UCF) and Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois) combined for 28.5 TFLs, 32 run stops and 8 sacks last year, while edge rushers David Bailey (Stanford) and Romello Height (Georgia Tech) combined for 16 TFLs, 12 run stops and 9.5 sacks. Cornerbacks Dontae Balfour (Charlotte), Brice Pollock (Mississippi State) and Amier Boyd (UTEP) each defended (intercepted or broke up) at least nine passes, and big safety Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State) defended 21 in 2023. Incumbent linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts (combined: 24 run stops) and nickel back A.J. McCarty also are solid returnees.

Per SP+, Tech has had one top-50 defense in the past 15 years. I would expect that to change in 2025. But are we talking 49th or, say, 29th? Is Morton good enough at QB? Will good close-games fortune continue even if Tech improves? McGuire didn't sign an enormous transfer class by today's standards. Can a more targeted approach pay program-wide dividends the same way massive overhauls at Arizona State and Colorado did? Whatever the answers, Tech is one of 2025's most fascinating teams.

BYU Cougars

Head coach: Kalani Sitake (10th year, 72-43 overall)

2025 projection: 27th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.7 in the Big 12)

It's obviously not optimal writing a preview for a team that evidently has to open up its quarterback race to three pretty raw QBs in the middle of the summer. Juniors McCae Hillstead and Treyson Bourguet and freshman Bear Bachmeier have combined for 2,376 career passing yards, all at other schools (Hillstead came from Utah State, Bourguet from Western Michigan). With Jake Retzlaff almost certainly gone, one of these three will start. That's not great from a general prognostication standpoint.

That's fine, though, because I'm always wrong about BYU. Kalani Sitake's Cougars have been all over the map in recent years, zigging when I thought they'd zag. After losing Zach Wilson & Co. after the brilliant 2020 season, then holding steady at 10-3 in 2021, I thought they were pretty much sure things, but they fell to 8-5 (decent) and 66th in SP+ (less so). They returned a ton of production in 2023 and looked like prime bounce-back candidates, but they slipped further to 76th and 5-7. With quite a bit of turnover -- and an unknown juco transfer at quarterback -- there wasn't much reason to assume a sudden surge in 2024. But then came a sudden surge. Both the offense and defense improved dramatically, and the Cougars rose as high as seventh in the AP poll before settling for a mere top-15 finish.

So yeah, my BYU preview was going to be a giant shrug of the shoulders regardless of the QB situation. But here are some things I'm at least reasonably confident in saying:

• Linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker are dynamite. They combined for 21.5 TFLs, 20 run stops and 8.5 sacks last season. Of the 16 defenders who saw 200-plus snaps, they're two of only eight returning -- the top four defensive linemen are gone, as are three starters in the secondary -- but they're awesome.

• I like the incoming defensive line transfers. Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah) and Justin Kirkland (Oklahoma State) are both listed at 300-plus pounds (Kirkland is actually 340-plus), but they combined for 20 run stops and four pass breakups. They're super-active big guys. Another 300-pounder, Anisi Purcell (Southern Utah), has disruption potential, too.

• Despite losing three starters, the offensive line is big and experienced, with five returnees who started at least two games, plus junior transfers Andrew Gentry (Michigan) and Kyle Sfarcioc (Southern Utah). Combined with the return of 220-pound running back LJ Martin, that should make for a solid, physical identity if one is required.

• One will probably be required, considering a new starting QB will be throwing to a receiving corps replacing three of last year's top four options. Senior Chase Roberts is big and awesome, and both sophomore Jojo Phillips and junior Parker Kingston were excellent in small samples. But depth is tenuous at best.

• The schedule is interesting: three opponents projected 88th or worse, then three between 52nd and 60th, then four ranked 32nd or better. That will allow the Cougars a chance to figure themselves out, at least.

Utah Utes

Head coach: Kyle Whittingham (21st year, 167-86 overall)

2025 projection: 31st in SP+, 7.9 average wins (5.3 in the Big 12)

In May, I looked at three types of luck or fortune that could lead to a turnaround (good or bad) the following season and came up with ways to grade teams in each category. For turnovers luck, Utah ranked 121st nationally. For close-game fortune, the Utes ranked 99th. For lineup stability, they ranked 128th. Add those rankings together, and they were quite comfortably the least fortunate team in the power conferences, second worst among all FBS teams (ahead of only Florida Atlantic).

Even with quarterback Cam Rising injured once again, they began the season 4-0, rising to 13th in SP+ with what ended up being their best defense in five years. But the hits kept coming: They ended up starting four different QBs at least once, along with 11 different receivers and tight ends and eight different linemen. The result: a collapse to 96th in offensive SP+ and a seven-game losing streak that included tight scores of 27-19, 13-7, 17-14, 22-21 and 31-28. They were 40th in SP+ but missed a bowl.

Long story short: Kyle Whittingham's Utes are major turnaround candidates in 2025. But it will require a total offensive facelift to work out well. He hired creative offensive coordinator Jason Beck -- who led New Mexico's best offense in eight years in 2024 -- and brought in three new quarterbacks (including New Mexico's Devon Dampier), four running backs and six wide receivers. He didn't need to sign more than one lineman because last year's top six are all back, including All-America tackle Spencer Fano. Dampier is a dynamite rusher (1,187 pre-sack rushing yards and 19 TDs), and with backs such as Wayshawn Parker (Washington State) and NaQuari Rogers (UNM) and the aforementioned line, Utah should immediately have one of the best run games in the league. Passing? We'll see. Dampier is hit-or-miss, but Ryan Davis (UNM) and Larry Simmons (Southern Miss) could be play-action deep threats.

Morgan Scalley's defense dealt with its own injury issues, with 22 guys starting at least once. But the Utes still finished sixth in success rate allowed (13th rushing, 10th passing), allowing some pretty costly big plays but playing mostly excellent ball. It was maybe Scalley's best coordinator performance to date.

Only 10 of those 22 part- or full-time starters return, including only three of nine linemen. Whittingham went mostly young with his incoming transfers, and I'm not sure of the defensive end depth beyond star Logan Fano. But linebackers Lander Barton (12 run stops) and Levani Damuni (injured in 2024) are excellent, and junior corners Smith Snowden and Elijah Davis could be ready for star turns. Utah defenses are always solid, but to clear the bar that was set last year, quite a few new linemen will need to break through. I do figure there's some defensive regression coming, but offensive improvement could offset that. If that flips some close games, Utah will be a contender.

Iowa State Cyclones

Head coach: Matt Campbell (10th year, 64-51 overall)

2025 projection: 32nd in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.5 in the Big 12)

Iowa State continues to reach new heights under Matt Campbell. He has been in charge for both of the school's AP top-15 finishes, including last year's 11-win run, and while the Cyclones' 112-year conference title drought continues, he has brought them to the Big 12 title game twice.

Wild swings in close-game fortunes have defined recent seasons: From mid-2021 through early 2023, the Cyclones lost an incredible 12 of 13 one-score games, but they have since won seven of nine. That has masked some otherwise remarkable consistency: In the past eight seasons, they've finished between 23rd and 37th in SP+ six times, with one year above (2020) and one year below (2022). Their No. 32 projection for 2025 makes sense, then, though with seven games projected within one score, they'll once again be privy to the whims of the god of close games.

The defense has to replace its top three linemen and four of its top six defensive backs, but coordinator Jon Heacock gets the benefit of the doubt. He had to start 21 different guys at least once in 2024 but still produced a top-25 defensive SP+ ranking, and thanks in part to those injuries he'll have one of his most seasoned linebacking corps. Kooper Ebel and Rylan Barnes combined for 11 TFLs and 21 run stops in 2024, and juniors Will McLaughlin and Caleb Bacon produced similar numbers in 2023. Safety Jeremiah Cooper and corner Jontez Williams are good, and incoming corner transfer Tre Bell (Lindenwood) looks the part. The pass defense should be strong again, but the run defense was far worse than normal last season, and this year's line will be far less experienced. That's not a great combination.

ISU's No. 44 offensive SP+ ranking, though unamazing, was its best in three years. There was nothing particularly creative here -- Taylor Mouser's offense ran on standard downs, threw on passing downs and played at nearly the most average tempo in the country. But the Cyclones committed almost no penalties and suffered few negative plays or three-and-outs. Quarterback Rocco Becht captained a steady ship, with help from two physical running backs (juniors Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III) and an enormous line (average size of six returnees with starting experience: 6-foot-6, 322 pounds).

Last year's recipe should be replicable, but it will require a couple of breakthroughs in the receiving corps. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are both gone after combining for 167 catches and 2,377 yards, and the leading returning wideout, Carson Brown, had 11 catches. Between big-play transfer Chase Sowell (East Carolina), senior Daniel Jackson (injured in 2024) and untested youngsters, new playmakers must emerge.

With a schedule featuring five teams projected between 18th and 29th and only two projected worse than 70th, basically every game is winnable and about 10 are losable. Close games and new playmakers at receiver and D-line will tell the tale.

TCU Horned Frogs

Head coach: Sonny Dykes (fourth year, 27-13 overall)

2025 projection: 29th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (5.3 in the Big 12)

It shouldn't be possible, but somehow TCU, which made a run to the national title game in 2022, enjoyed an excellent 2024 season that was almost completely off the radar.

Following 2022's blessed run -- Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs were an excellent team (ninth in SP+) that was a little too successful in one-score games (6-1) -- came a cursed 2023, in which the product regressed (35th) and all the good fortune went away (0-4 in one-score games). I'm probably boring you with my constant references to close games, but that was an epic reversal.

The Frogs started 2024 just 3-3 because of a mostly turgid defense. That meant they had gone 8-11 in their past 19 games. But they then won six of their last seven. The offense found a nice cruising altitude, and Andy Avalos' defense went from allowing an average of 37 points over its first five FBS games to just 19 over its last seven. And it was like no one noticed. Despite finishing 9-4 (and 25th in SP+), they got just two votes in the final AP poll. And that dastardly Mark Schlabach doesn't have them in his post-spring top 25 either. Unlike so many coaches out there, Dykes gets to play the "No one respects us!" card with actual truth behind it.

After a solid redshirt freshman season in 2023, Josh Hoover raised his game with 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns and a 67% completion rate last year. He threw eight of his 10 interceptions in a glitchy five-game midseason span, but he was mostly safe down the stretch. He'll have an experienced line in front of him, combining three 2024 starters with three experienced transfers (including San Diego State's Cade Bennett, who came to Fort Worth in 2024 but missed the season with injury). The skill corps needed replenishing, however, after losing four of its top five pass targets and its leading rusher. Big-play man Eric McAlister (19.5 yards per catch) returns, and veteran receivers Joseph Manjack IV (Houston) and Jordan Dwyer (1,192 yards at Idaho) could immediately thrive. But things could go to a different level if exciting youngsters such as sophomores Jordyn Bailey and Braylon James or redshirt freshman Dozie Ezukanma emerge.

The defense returns 11 players who saw at least 200 snaps, but a lot of high-level playmakers -- end NaNa Osafo-Mensah, linebacker Johnny Hodges, nickel Abe Camara, corner LaMareon James -- are gone. Linebacker Namdi Obiazor and sacks leader Devean Deal are excellent, and the secondary, led by safety Bud Clark, is loaded with seniors. But it might again take Avalos a little while to generate proper disruption unless transfers such as tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh (Washington State), linebacker Michael Teason (Missouri State) and safety Kylin Jackson (LSU) are immediate hits.

Baylor Bears

Head coach: Dave Aranda (sixth year, 31-30 overall)

2025 projection: 35th in SP+, 6.7 average wins (4.9 in the Big 12)

If TCU wasn't the most overlooked success story of 2024, Baylor was. After winning the Big 12 in 2021, Dave Aranda's Bears went just 9-16 over the next two seasons and began 2024 just 2-4. But like the rival Horned Frogs, Baylor surged from there, winning six in a row. The defense didn't play much of a role in the streak, but Jake Spavital's offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points.

There's no reason to think the offense will regress. Even with Leavitt's late-2024 charge, Robertson was the best quarterback in the conference per Total QBR.

Robertson gets Washington and Pendergrass back, plus leading receivers Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins (combined: 1,321 yards, 15 TDs), and Aranda added two 600-yard transfer receivers (San Diego State's Louis Brown IV and Texas State's Kole Wilson) and enigmatic veteran Kobe Prentice (Alabama). The line returns four starters as well, including all-conference guard Omar Aigbedion. The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025.

Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense. Baylor collapsed from 18th in defensive SP+ in 2021 to 103rd in 2023, and while the Bears rebounded to 63rd last year, with a genuinely solid run defense, the pass defense was terrible, and they lost three games while scoring 28 or more points. Aranda kept third-year coordinator Matt Powledge but loaded up on transfers. Travion Barnes (FIU) and Phoenix Jackson (Fresno State) were two of the best blitzing linebackers in the portal, edge rusher Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) is exciting, and between Tulane's Adonis Friloux (310 pounds) and Texas A&M's Samu Taumanupepe (380!), Aranda added some spectacular size up front. But while returning corner Caden Jenkins is solid, Powledge has to hope that a few of the six incoming DBs thrive quickly. The most likely of the bunch, based on their stats and/or recruiting rankings: safety Devin Turner (Northwestern), blue-chip corner Calvin Simpson-Hunt (Oregon) and FCS corner Caldra Williford (Tennessee Tech).

Having such an experienced team could prove important, as the schedule starts with a bang: In the first four weeks, Baylor hosts Auburn and Arizona State and visits SMU. Kansas State and Utah also visit Waco -- the home-road split here is pretty favorable -- and if the defense can just hit a top-40 level or so, the offense might take it from there.

A couple of breaks away from a run

Kansas Jayhawks

Head coach: Lance Leipold (fifth year, 22-28 overall)

2025 projection: 50th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (4.0 in the Big 12)

Here's a surefire way to ruin your social media mentions for a few days: Compare someone to Bill Snyder. In last year's Big 12 preview, I noted that (a) in the years before Lance Leipold arrived, Kansas' general football awfulness rivaled that of Kansas State's in the pre-Snyder 1980s, and (b) in his first three years on the job, Leipold had actually engineered a better product. I also mentioned that no one can duplicate what Snyder did long term, but the damage was done. My mentions were a trash fire for days.

I must have jinxed Leipold in the process. His 2024 Jayhawks, playing their home games outside of Lawrence while Memorial Stadium was undergoing renovations, slipped from 25th to 50th in SP+ and, with help from a run of close losses (1-5 in one-score games), fell from 9-4 to 5-7.

Of course, in Snyder's fourth season (1992), K-State slipped to 5-6 and 55th in SP+. That brings the overall scoreboard to ...

Leipold's first four years at Kansas: 22-28, 51.0% average SP+ percentile rating

Snyder's first four years at K-State: 18-26, 43.3% average SP+ percentile rating

Leipold still has the edge. Bring it on, K-State fans.

(No, but seriously, please don't bring it on.)

In Year 5, Snyder's program ignited. K-State jumped to 26th in SP+ in 1993, then 15th in 1994, then second in 1995. It will only get harder for Leipold to keep up, and a 2025 rebound will require Leipold, a culture-and-development guy through and through, to prove his portal chops.

Somehow, quarterback Jalon Daniels still has eligibility left and will get a chance to add to his 6,751 career passing yards and 1,401 career rushing yards. He'll have his third coordinator in as many years, but it's a familiar name in longtime QBs coach Jim Zebrowski. That's not all the change, though. Only two other offensive starters return (all-conference center Bryce Foster and guard Kobe Baynes), and Daniels will be surrounded by transfers -- running back Leshon Williams (Iowa), five new pass catchers including Ball State's Cam Pickett, two big-play FCS guys (Columbia's Bryson Canty and Albany's Levi Wentz), a former blue-chipper in Alabama's Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and five new linemen.

On defense, new coordinator D.K. McDonald inherits a unit facing even more change. Of the 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps, only five return, and four are linemen. (End Dean Miller and tackles D.J. Withers and Tommy Dunn Jr. are excellent.) The back seven will be led almost entirely by transfers; that includes a dynamite pair of linebackers in Trey Lathan (West Virginia) and Joseph Sipp Jr. (Bowling Green), but the incoming DBs are less proven. Nickel Syeed Gibbs (Georgia Tech) looks disruptive, but the pass defense could continue to be a liability.

Arizona Wildcats

Head coach: Brent Brennan (second year, 4-8 overall)

2025 projection: 60th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (3.4 in the Big 12)

It's always difficult to trust a one-year surge. Arizona went just 10-31 with an average SP+ ranking of 98.8 from 2019 to 2022, and while that made the Wildcats' 10-win 2023 season particularly exhilarating, it also meant that last year's steep regression wasn't totally surprising, even if most of us were more optimistic.

Quarterback Noah Fifita is back, having thrown for 5,827 yards and 43 TDs in two years, and sophomore guard Alexander Doost returns after producing the best blown-block rate on the team. I unfortunately just listed all of the semi-proven offensive returnees. Some transfers will have to thrive, and coach Brent Brennan certainly landed a few intriguing ones. Backs Ismail Mahdi (Texas State) and Quincy Craig (Portland State) are unique run-and-catch threats, slot receiver Luke Wysong (New Mexico) was heavily targeted last season, and two FCS transfers, Cam Barmore (Mercyhurst) and Javin Whatley (Chattanooga), combined to average 15.0 yards per catch. Seven new linemen are aboard as well, and most of them at least have excellent size. There's potential here, and new coordinator Seth Doege engineered solid improvement in his lone season at Marshall last year.

The code for Arizona's defense was pretty easy to crack last season: Do you have a decent offense? If so, you're going to score lots of points.

Arizona vs. offenses ranked worse than 60th in SP+: 15.5 points per game allowed, 5.0 yards per play

Arizona vs. top-60 offenses: 39.9 points per game allowed, 7.0 yards per play

Now-former defensive coordinator Duane Akina played a ton of guys -- 22 got at least 100 snaps -- but only defensive end Tre Smith, nickel Dalton Johnson and linebacker Taye Brown did anything particularly disruptive, and of those 22 guys, only nine return.

Smith, Johnson and Brown all return for new coordinator Danny Gonzales, and as with the offense, I like quite a few incoming transfers -- ends Chancellor Owens (Northwestern State) and Malachi Bailey (Alcorn State) and linebackers Blake Gotcher (Northwestern State) and Riley Wilson (Montana) combined for 51.5 TFLs and 22.5 sacks, corner Michael Dansby (San Jose State) is a proven entity, and both safety Jshawn Frausto-Ramos (Stanford) and corner Jay'Vion Cole (Texas) did quite a bit in few snaps.

Brennan needed a successful portal haul, and while the FCS-to-FBS transfers are sometimes hard to project, I like what he added. The extremes of Arizona's last two seasons have been dizzying, but the Wildcats have averaged seven wins and a No. 50 SP+ ranking the last two years; that's probably too high a bar to clear this year, especially with six top-50 opponents on the schedule, but I don't think it's impossible.

Colorado Buffaloes

Head coach: Deion Sanders (third year, 13-12 overall)

2025 projection: 52nd in SP+, 5.5 average wins (3.3 in the Big 12)

If we ignore the incredible talents of Heisman winner Travis Hunter and the preposterously QB-centric offense Pat Shurmur crafted to showcase Shedeur Sanders, and we only look at the results, the first two years of the Deion Sanders era were pretty spectacular. Sanders inherited a program that, in 16 full seasons before his arrival, had finished with a winning record once. In his second year, his Buffaloes went 9-4. They were only 2-4 against SP+ top-50 teams, but 2024 was an undeniable success.

For better or worse, this year's CU team is going to be almost completely different. Only six starters return, and in come another 30-plus transfers.

The first non-Sanders QB of the Sanders era: Kaidon Salter, who in 2023 and '24 threw for 4,762 yards with 1,840 non-sack rushing yards and 66 total touchdowns at Liberty. He's almost 180 degrees different from Shedeur Sanders -- if you don't have a decent designed-run package, you're not maximizing his potential -- but he's good. A brand new receiving corps will feature potentially high-level transfers in Joseph Williams (Tulsa), Hykeem Williams (Florida State) and Sincere Brown (Campbell), among others, and returnees Dre'lon Miller and Omarion Miller have solid potential. At running back, Dallan Hayden didn't do much last year, but I'm curious about Incarnate Word transfer DeKalon Taylor. Up front, well, it's the third straight year with an almost completely new O-line. We'll see.

The offense shined at times last year, but the defense's improvement, from 113th to 45th in SP+, was a huge driver of success. We'll see if second-year coordinator Robert Livingston can craft the same success with a mostly new unit. Ends Samuel Okunlola and Arden Walker (combined: 14.5 TFLs), tackle Amari McNeill and corner DJ McKinney are solid returnees, but another big transfer haul will tell the tale. There are some promising additions -- linebackers Reginald Hughes (Jacksonville State) and Martavius French (UTSA) combined for 25 TFLs and 31 run stops last season, corners Tyrecus Davis (Wyoming) and Teon Parks (Illinois State) combined for 24 passes defended, and safety Tawfiq Byard (USF) is dynamite near the line of scrimmage.

Sanders is just 4-3 as a head coach when Shedeur Sanders isn't his quarterback, and he had the most uniquely brilliant player in the country at his disposal the last two years. It's a new era, and the Buffaloes drew the short straw in Big 12 play -- they play six of the top seven projected teams in SP+. But the overall talent level is solid, and a Sanders team will always be interesting, one way or another.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Head coach: Mike Gundy (21st year, 169-88 overall)

2025 projection: 58th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (3.6 in the Big 12)

Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy have each coached at their current schools for 20 years and achieved unprecedented, sustained success. They both disappointed horribly last season, but while Whittingham's Utah was relatively unlucky in 2024, Gundy's OSU was just bad. The offense was dreadfully inefficient, only occasionally redeeming itself with big plays and great red zone execution. The defense, meanwhile, was unredeemable. Gundy had struck gold in the past, hiring Division II hotshot Mike Yurcich as offensive coordinator back in 2013, but hiring another D-II guy in 2023, defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo, bombed.

What do you do when your relatively inexperienced small-school DC fails? Look for the most experienced big-school guy you can find. Gundy found Todd Grantham.

Grantham has been in charge of great defenses (four SP+ top-15 units in the 2010s at Georgia, Louisville and Florida), and he's had some absolute duds. He's a "when in doubt, blitz harder" guy, and Gundy tried to bring him some portal pass rushers in ends Kyran Duhon (UTEP), Taje McCoy (Colorado) and Malik Charles (West Georgia) and linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky). He also got a couple of big tackles (Vanderbilt's De'Marion Thomas, UCLA's Sitiveni Havili Kaufusi), a tackling machine in linebacker Bryan McCoy (17 run stops at Akron) and lots of new transfers and jucos for the secondary. He basically stripped the defense down to the studs, as he needed to. Now we'll see if it works.

On offense, OSU is going back to basics. Doug Meacham, a spread old-hand and Gundy's receivers coach in the 2000s, comes back to Stillwater, and his first Cowboy offense will basically have 11 new starters, most of whom will come from a haul of 19 transfers. Running back Freddie Brock (Georgia State) is a nice run/pass threat, Christian Fitzpatrick (Marshall) and Jaylen Lloyd (Nebraska) are deep-route experts, tight end Oscar Hammond (North Texas) is good, and two Division II receivers, Terrill Davis (Central Oklahoma) and Cam Abshire (Emory & Henry), each had fantastic numbers at that level. I'm not sure I see any line standouts, and OSU is completely devoid of experience at quarterback, where it appears either sophomore Zane Flores or incoming redshirt freshman Hauss Hejny (TCU) will start. But again, an overhaul was needed. Now we'll see if it works.

Gundy has steered out of skids before, and every time people start to call him washed up, he puts together a 10-win season. But he's never had to fix something this broken.

Houston Cougars

Head coach: Willie Fritz (second year, 4-8 overall)

2025 projection: 59th in SP+, 5.8 average wins (3.6 in the Big 12)

Willie Fritz's first season at Houston was, in a way, backward. The Cougars are used to good offense but collapsed to 118th in offensive SP+, while the defense, having ranked 94th or worse for five of six seasons, surged to 54th. They held half their opponents to 20 or fewer points but scored 14 or fewer points half the time.

Historically, Fritz is a great second-year coach. In his five previous head coaching stops (Blinn Community College, Central Missouri, Sam Houston, Georgia Southern and Tulane), he went from a combined 30-25-1 in his first year to 44-17 in his second. I would guess that his second UH offense will indeed improve dramatically. Slade Nagle, his former Tulane OC, will lead an attack that now features quarterback Conner Weigman (Texas A&M), running back Dean Connors (Rice), highly sought-after tight end Tanner Koziol (Ball State) and a bunch of line transfers.

Weigman, a former top-30 recruit, was hit-and-miss at A&M, but Fritz praised his athleticism and adaptability this week at Big 12 media days, and Connors is a dynamite yards-after-contact guy who also caught 62 passes in 2024. Slot receiver Stephon Johnson, running back Re'Shaun Sanford II and center Demetrius Hunter are probably the best of the returnees.

The main question for 2025 is if offensive improvement simply offsets defensive regression. Coordinator Shiel Wood left for Texas Tech and was replaced by Austin Armstrong, and of 13 guys who saw 200-plus snaps (a pretty tight rotation), only four return. Granted, returnees tackle Carlos Allen Jr., edge rusher Brandon Mack and safety Kentrell Webb are solid, but this is going to be a new unit with three transfer linemen, four linebackers and nine DBs. As with most Big 12 teams, I like a lot of the incoming transfers, from tackle Myles Parker (Tennessee Tech), who made 7.5 TFLs at 335 pounds, to linebackers Carmycah Glass (Louisiana) and Jesus Machado (Tulane), nickel back Wrook Brown (Wyoming) and corners Marc Stampley II (Georgia Southern), Will James (Southern Miss) and Zelmar Vedder (Sacramento State). Still, having to retool an encouraging defense this much isn't optimal.

Houston plays only four projected top-50 opponents and, despite mediocre overall rankings, is a projected favorite in six games. The pathway to a second-year breakthrough exists, but only if Fritz turns out to be a strong transfer portal negotiator.

UCF Knights

Head coach: Scott Frost (third year at UCF, 19-7 overall, first year of second stint)

2025 projection: 61st in SP+, 5.7 average wins (3.4 in the Big 12)

Under Gus Malzahn, UCF was something almost worse than bad: The Knights were perpetually mediocre. They constantly hinted at a level that they could never hold on to and went just 10-15 in 2023 and '24. It made sense, then, that the school would want to reclaim old glories. Scott Frost led the Knights to a 13-0 record and national title claim in 2017 before returning to alma mater Nebraska and going just 16-31. Now he's back in his old office in Orlando.

Big tackle Paul Rubelt is the only returning starter on an offense that welcomes 17 transfers, many of them rather explosive: Quarterback Tayven Jackson (Indiana) averaged 15.2 yards per completion and 5.7 yards per non-sack carry, running back Jaden Nixon (Western Michigan) averaged 6.4 yards per carry, tight end Dylan Wade (Maryland) had five catches of at least 25 yards, and smaller-school guys DJ Black (Limestone) and Chris Domercant (Chattanooga) combined for 1,579 yards at 20.5 per catch. Jackson is the presumptive starter, and the RB combo of Nixon and Myles Montgomery should complete a nice backfield. But the receiving corps and offensive line have quite a bit to prove in Frost's mach-speed offense.

As part of his redemption tour, Frost brought another redemption candidate with him: coordinator Alex Grinch. Once a bright up-and-comer at Washington State, Grinch bombed at USC. He has proven he can thrive when he has what he needs on the edge, though, and at UCF he'll have ends Nyjalik Kelly and Malachi Lawrence (combined: 17 TFLs) and a potentially dynamite transfer in sophomore Sincere Edwards (six TFLs at Pitt). Among linebackers Keli Lawson (Virginia Tech), Lewis Carter (Oklahoma) and Cole Kozlowski (Colgate), he should find a nice tackling machine in the middle, and the cornerback haul of Jayden Bellamy (Syracuse), DJ Bell (Memphis), Jyaire Brown (LSU) and Isaiah Reed (Brown) should produce two keepers.

Overall, UCF should have plenty of explosive athletes, a good run game and a good pass rush. Like pretty much everyone here at the bottom, the Knights could find just the right alchemy to make a sudden push, but someone in this conference has to lose games, and UCF lost quite a few in 2024.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Head coach: Scott Satterfield (third year, 8-16 overall)

2025 projection: 66th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.2 in the Big 12)

Luke Fickell went an incredible 53-11 in his last five seasons in charge but left for Wisconsin as Cincy was making the move to the Big 12; successor Scott Satterfield had matched that number of losses by the end of his second September.

The Bearcats did improve in Year 2, though not as much as they probably hoped. The offense didn't make nearly enough big plays but was pretty efficient, especially through the air. With quarterback Brendan Sorsby and tight end Joe Royer returning, that efficiency potential remains. But with leading rusher Corey Kiner and last year's top four wideouts gone, Sorsby will be distributing the ball to some unfamiliar teammates. Satterfield seemed to acknowledge Cincy's explosiveness issues by adding a trio of big-play receivers in Caleb Goodie (Colorado State), Cyrus Allen (Texas A&M/Louisiana Tech) and Jeff Caldwell (Lindenwood). Throw in an expanded role for former Ohio State running back Evan Pryor -- whose 71 touches at UC last year included rushes of 65, 64, 55, 36 and 32 yards and receptions of 80 and 40 yards -- and you could have a massive uptick in big plays. Maintaining last year's efficiency might be up to a line that lost three starters but added three experienced transfers.

The defense returns some difference-makers in the front six. That's doubly true if tackle Dontay Corleone can find fifth gear again. A potential All-American, "The Godfather" was merely good last season after coming back from offseason blood clot issues, but he's healthy, and transfer ends Jaylon White-McClain (Old Dominion) and Mikah Coleman (EMU, injured in 2024) could give the Bearcats extra oomph up front. At outside linebacker, Jake Golday and Jonathan Thompson are both excellent against the run.

The pass defense is the question mark. The pass rush is unproven, and four of last year's five starting DBs are gone, leaving returnees like nickel Antwan Peek Jr. to pair with newcomers like corner Matthew McDoom (Coastal Carolina) and safeties Tayden Barnes (New Mexico State), Xavier Williams (Middle Tennessee) and Christian Harrison (Tennessee). Barnes was one of the most disruptive freshman DBs in the country last season.

Further improvement is likely in Satterfield's third season, but with a schedule featuring six top-35 opponents, I'm not sure what impact that will have on the win total.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Head coach: Rich Rodriguez (eighth year at WVU, 60-26 overall, first year of second stint)

2025 projection: 57th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.1 in the Big 12)

Like Scott Frost, Rich Rodriguez has returned to the scene of his greatest successes. He even doubled down on the nostalgia factor by hiring former Mountaineers stars like Pat White and Noel Devine as assistants.

Rodriguez has brought in 52 transfers, including veteran running back Jaylan Knighton (SMU), three small-school thousand-yard rushers (Catawba's L.J. Turner, Ferris State's Kannon Katzer and Northern Iowa's Tye Edwards), four 600-yard receivers (including Jacksonville State big-play man Cam Vaughn and Idaho State thousand-yarder Jeff Weimer), 11 offensive linemen, dynamite UTSA edge rusher Jimmori Robinson (10.5 sacks, 11 run stops), two disruptive FCS linebackers (Southern Illinois' Ben Bogle and UIW's Devin Grant), two of the most disruptive DBs in the Group of 5 (Nevada corner Michael Coats Jr. and Jax State nickel Fred Perry) and a fascinating D2 safety in Virginia Union's William Davis (11.5 TFLs!).

With junior Jahiem White also returning, WVU should easily have one of the most exciting running back units in the country. His career has been hit-and-miss since he left Morgantown the first time, but he re-established his run-game bona fides at Jacksonville State, winning 27 games in three seasons. In Tyler Huff, he had a perfect QB for his style at JSU, and we'll see if either Jaylen Henderson (Texas A&M), returnee Nicco Marchiol or Max Brown (Charlotte) fit as well. But Rodriguez definitely brought in as many intriguing weapons as he could find in the portal.

He also made a nice defensive coordinator hire, luring former JSU DC Zac Alley over from Oklahoma. A former student and graduate assistant at Clemson, Alley has only been a full-time coach since 2019, but his track record is dynamite: He oversaw improvement at ULM (opposite offensive coordinator Rich Rod) in 2021, engineered a No. 57 defensive SP+ ranking in Jax State's FBS debut and helped OU to improve from 38th to 17th last season. There are so many new guys that everyone's going to need to wear name tags in the meeting room for a few months, but he does have some playmakers here. And if the Mountaineers can combine negative plays on defense with big run plays on offense, their in-the-cellar projection will prove far too pessimistic.

Just looking for a path to 6-6

I usually reserve this category for teams with no more than a 35% chance of bowl eligibility. The Big 12 has no such teams. Everyone has a reason to be pretty ambitious. I love this conference.