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UFC Nashville predictions, odds, full card picks: Can Derrick Lewis fend off heavyweight's latest prospect?

Nothing says entertainment capital of the mid-south like a middling UFC Fight Night in Nashville ... right?

It's essentially the "Derrick Lewis special" at this point, as the UFC record-holder for most career knockouts headlined his past two Fight Night appearances in St. Louis, Missouri and Sao Paulo, Brazil. (Two totally normal locations for him to do so.) This time, "The Black Beast" is being tossed against yet another rising Brazilian prospect in Tallison Teixeira, who makes just his second UFC appearance.

Veterans Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson and Calvin Kattar are also in action at UFC Nashville. And that's about all the table-setting that's necessary, folks. Because this event is nothing more than a UFC APEX-worthy lineup plucked from the bottom of the barrel.

👑 UFC Nashville's lineup Crown grade: F+. 👑

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Tallison Teixeira of Brazil celebrates his victory over Justin Tarfa of New Zealand during UFC 312 at Qudos Bank Arena on February 09, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

265 pounds: Derrick Lewis (+220) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-275)

UFC Nashville's main event will finally answer the age-old question: "How would Lewis vs. Stefan Struve have looked?" Well, the time is now to settle that raging debate.

All jokes aside, there's only so much that a Lewis fight can be broken down. When he's not plodding forward seeking the home run shot or throwing the occasional randomly wild flying knee, he's getting outwrestled — until he just decides to get up. And if he doesn't get up, he might be smothered to a decision or submitted or pummeled senseless.

The 6-foot-7 Teixeira has the ability to do all of that, stopping seven of his eight opponents with strikes. The outlier was a fight he won by inverted triangle choke in his debut.

Excuse me?

Yes, the 25-year-old giant should win and replicate a performance similar to that of his fellow tall man, Alexander Volkov, who systematically broke down Lewis in 2018. However, that effortlessly dominant display from Volkov ended with him flat on his back, staring at the lights in the final seconds thanks to a Lewis punch.

Expect the same type of fight here in every respect. Why? Because Derrick Lewis. That's why.

Pick: Lewis

170 pounds: Stephen Thompson (+310) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (-400)

The UFC matchmakers looked at the UFC Nashville event and determined that this was a good time to stage some "pass the torch" fights. I'm not sure how else they would have arranged a matchup between the 42-year-old Stephen Thompson and the 27-year-old prospect Gabriel Bonfim.

Spoiler alert: I'm on team "old dog" for most of this card. Experience matters. The level of competition matters.

Thompson has admittedly fallen on very tough times, going 1-4 in his last five. But three of those losses were stylistic nightmares, and the one that wasn't — Joaquin Buckley, in Thompson's last fight — was going Thompson's way until the late knockout blow.

As long as "Wonderboy" is still physically capable of competing, his style is going to give anyone problems. He's a big test for a surging 17-1 Bonfim. The Brazilian is wildly dangerous everywhere, and it makes sense for him to be favored. This just comes down to examining who Thompson has lost to and how.

Pick: Thompson

145 pounds: Calvin Kattar (+110) vs. Steve Garcia (-130)

Steve Garcia is low-key on quite a run with five straight knockout wins. The dude is a certified gamer, and deserves an opportunity at the top 15, starting with Calvin Kattar.

This matchup isn't quite on the level of UFC Nashville's co-main event, given the only five-year age gap. The similarities lie more in Kattar's four-fight skid, which is deceptive. However, his last time out against Youssef Zalal showed Kattar is likely on the downside of his career. Regardless, he's still as durable as ever, which will be important against the ever-violent Garcia.

Garcia's chaos has the potential to play right into Kattar's favor. Always known for his great boxing, Garcia will bring the target right to Kattar, playing into his game. All the makings to play spoiler are in Kattar's favor, assuming he hasn't completely fallen off a cliff.

Either way, this fight and the next are most likely to steal the show.

Pick: Kattar

145 pounds: Nate Landwehr (+220) vs. Morgan Charriere (-275)

Maybe it's a featherweight thing, huh?

Nate Landwehr and Morgan Charriere are both in positions where they hope to rebound after losses to opponents who put on arguably their career-best performances. Unfortunately for Landwehr, his Doo Ho Choi loss was much more of an exposure for the 37-year-old than Charriere's unanimous decision defeat against Nathaniel Wood.

Neutralizing Landwehr's train-like aggression is the path to success for anyone who faces him, but his speed has seemingly decreased since the epic David Onama war in 2023. "The Last Pirate" Charriere is a more dynamic striker overall, with a broader range of tools in his arsenal to accomplish the task. For Landwehr, all that accumulated damage over the years adds up.

Pick: Charriere

265 pounds: Vitor Petrino (-750) vs. Austen Lane (+525)

As a self-hating Jacksonville Jaguars fan, it's still wild to remember Austen Lane's brief run with the team. Believe it or not, he actually might have been better at football than MMA. (Not that that's saying much.)

This is the state of the heavyweight division, folks. This is just a lay-up on a silver platter for Vitor Petrino, a once-unbeaten hopeful light heavyweight prospect two fights ago. That was until he was rushed into veteran presences Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby.

Lane's chin has been an easy target and built out of styrofoam since the jump, as all six of his losses are via knockout. Add some extra weight to Petrino's already serviceable light heavyweight power, and this should be a nice highlight on his reel.

Pick: Petrino

205 pounds: Junior Tafa (-165) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+135)

Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos almost feels like a heavyweight fight in disguise. That's purely because of Tafa, who is just a lite version of his brother, Justin Tafa.

Nonetheless, both Tafas can absolutely crack. They both only win by knockout. Tokkos will need to utilize his speed advantage as the lighter man, avoiding the bombs for 15 minutes. That just feels like too big an ask here, especially considering the durability of his opponent.

Pick: Tafa

Preliminary Notes

Nashville is getting spoiled with heavyweight nonsense, and believe it or not, the one who should be spotlighted the most is Kennedy Nzechukwu. (A former light heavyweight.) He's taking on Johnny Walker's brother, Valter Walker, so expect those similar shenanigans.

Meanwhile, Mike Davis gets to catch another body. And he's not even the biggest favorite. That would be Fatima Kline, who should easily shine against "Super Melly" Melissa Martinez.

UFC Nashville is a card.

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