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College football betting, picks, odds: Early best bets for Week 5's biggest games, including Oregon-Penn State

If they cared to, anthropologists might have an interesting study on their hands regarding the Illinois-Indiana point spread last week.

Whatever happened between the summer — when Indiana -2.5 was available against Illinois — and Week 4 was one thing, but Indiana just kept getting bet last week from -4.5 to -7. And clearly with good reason, as that line could have gone up -52.5, and still, Indiana would have covered 63-10.

This beatdown effectively caused a swap in the AP poll rankings between the two schools, which is a textbook example of a big move in perception. It's the type of thing we keep our eye on as bettors and each Tuesday in this space.

Movers

Right up until the approximate midway point of the second quarter in Bloomington, it was Texas Tech that made the biggest impression in Week 4. The Red Raiders’ soft non-conference slate didn’t tell us anything about what their big-money offseason actually meant for their chances at a surprise College Football Playoff run (a la Indiana last year). Storming into Salt Lake City with a defense that shut down Utah and winning despite QB Behren Morton leaving the game with an injury needed to be seen to be believed before we could go forward with the idea that Texas Tech should be reckoned with.

We’re there now though, as we can confidently say the Red Raiders are at least an “80” — the level of a College Football Playoff contender — in our estimated rating system out of 100, used at THE WINDOW.

Shakers

Move over, South Florida. Or, scooch a bit, at least.

Memphis’ upset as a 7.5-point underdog wasn’t the biggest shocker of the season — or even the week — but what the Tigers’ win did do was put them (+350) neck-and-neck with USF (+450) and Tulane (+400) to make the CFP. Moreover, even with the Green Wave’s loss at Ole Miss, this trio of teams shows a strength in the American conference, making the league’s winner far and away the most likely to be the Group of Five representative in the Playoff.

While Tulane and USF don’t square off during the regular season, they both visit Memphis this season — games that will almost certainly make our list below when the time comes.

Betting the big games for Week 5

No. 21 USC (-6.5, 59.5) at No. 23 Illinois

This Saturday’s slate is so good (and the Illini’s loss was so egregious) that I almost omitted this ranked matchup. In part, because the valuable bet is not for the faint of heart, especially if we get a modest line move in a predictable direction.

While the Illini were embarrassed last week, the beating they took has sent the line flying from a market projection of under a field goal to a spread approaching a full touchdown. USC's offense has had a lot to do with that as well, as QB Jayden Maiava has moved up to 20-1 odds to win the Heisman trophy.

The Trojans’ offense isn’t the only video-game like thing about them, their schedule has acted like one where the levels keep getting harder the farther they go:

Missouri State –> Georgia Southern –> Purdue –> Michigan State

Eventually, you hit a level that requires a few tries, or, in this case, where a win would be enough. In fact, the Trojans haven’t actually covered in their two comfortable Big Ten wins, so we’ll be looking for the market to overreact to the Illini’s loss, knowing they have an offense that can put up big numbers too.

Advice: Look for +7 for Illinois

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (-1.5, 55.5)

LSU’s currently hanging its hat on wins over Clemson and Florida — brand-name programs that had high expectations this season.

They are also teams whose only wins are over Troy (rated in the bottom-half of the Sun Belt) and Long Island (of the Football Championship Subdivision).

LSU’s offense scored 17 against Clemson, while Syracuse and Georgia Tech combined for 58.

LSU’s offense scored 13 against Florida, while South Florida and Miami scored 18 and 26, respectively.

The Ole Miss defense hasn’t exactly been staunch this year, but turnovers set up Kentucky repeatedly in Week 2. In that game, Lane Kiffin was forced to turn to freshman QB Trinidad Chambliss when Austin Simmons got hurt, but Chambliss has been outstanding in running the offense since, with 719 passing yards, 195 rushing yards, six total touchdowns and nary an interception (to Simmons’ four).

LSU’s defense is supposed to be different this year, but given what we’ve seen from Clemson's and Florida’s offenses, the jury can’t be back with a verdict on that just yet, so we’ll take the short home favorite in Oxford.

Bet: Ole Miss money line (-115)

No. 1 Ohio State (-8.5, 44.5) at Washington

Wait, if we can question LSU’s season-opening win retrospectively, and we can see that Arch Manning might not be all he was cracked up to be, then …

*looks around*

... can’t we wonder about how good Ohio State actually is?

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The Buckeyes have taken care of the rest of their business at home in the “Horseshoe,” though they were in a 7-point game with Ohio in the second half before being idle last week, but Ohio State is largely dining off the perception of a high-profile 17-10 home win over Texas (and being the defending national title champs). Meanwhile, Washington hasn’t found itself on anyone’s radar, since a 35-point Apple Cup win isn’t what (or when) it used to be.

This line opened over -10, but has seen early week interest as a possible upset spot, given a trek out to Seattle is the Buckeyes’ first road trip of the season, coming against one of the best quarterbacks no one is talking about.

Demond Williams Jr. is running Jedd Fisch’s offense to a ‘T,’ and the dual-threat QB may pose more problems than the more recognizable name OSU faced in its opener.

Grab the Huskies now before it falls down to an even +7, though you may not need the points.

Bet: Washington +8.5

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (-3.5, 52.5)

Taking the pulse of the college football industry before the season, there seemed to be some uncertainty about Oregon’s ability to replicate last year (2024, not Jan. 1, 2025). That would include a Big Ten championship as the Ducks put up 45 on Penn State. Meanwhile, James Franklin managed to beat SMU and Boise State in the CFP, but lost to Notre Dame, going 0-4 against the spread and 1-3 straight up in games lined inside of 4.5 points or less.

While the point spread is fair based on preseason market ratings that have had no reason to change because neither team has played a relevant opponent, laying 3.5, even at home in a white-out, goes against anything we’ve seen so far this season from Penn State. Meanwhile, this is a rare chance to get Dan Lanning as an underdog, and with QBDante Moore powering the Ducks’ offense in a way we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. We’ll be on the Ducks this Saturday.

Bet: Oregon +3.5

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (-3, 53.5)

We fell to 2-1 in our summer “Game of the Year” betting last week, and we’re down a point in value this week, having taken Georgia -4, but there’s reason to believe we’ll be OK anyway.

Remember when the witch hunt was on for Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer? Alabama’s market rating fell to a point where this line would be Georgia at close to a touchdown. However, before each team took a week off to prepare for this showdown, the Crimson Tide covered a big number against Wisconsin (a week before the Badgers got blown out at home to Maryland), while the Bulldogs escaped Knoxville in overtime.

To me, Georgia should get credit (and not a downgrade because it didn’t cover) for beating the Vols in a game the checkerboard crowd at Neyland Stadium was dying to win and outlasting a Tennessee team that showed it will be heard from again this season.

While Florida State may eventually prove itself good enough to excuse Bama’s loss in Tallahassee, having only to give a field goal — with Georgia back between the hedges and two weeks to tighten up its defense — is the way to bet on this week’s co-headliner.

Bet: Georgia -3

You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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