Beware Deebo!

I think Deebo Samuel is my favorite non-Packer, at least of the last 10 years or so, because there’s really no one else like him, and whenever someone tries to make a new Deebo (See: Jalen Reagor, Laviska Shenault, Xavier Legette) it tends to not work out. Maybe the closest anyone has ever come is Kendrick Bourne’s outstanding 2021 season where he finished first in DVOA, and it’s a not surprise that as of this week, Bourne is a member of the San Francisco 49ers.

What makes Deebo so special is his incredible ability to generate Yards After Catch (YAC) on routes that almost always result in lesser players getting stopped immediately. For quarterbacks, he’s an easy target, and will generate a robust completion percentage (he caught 7 of 10 balls in Washington’s opener against Detroit) but he also turns those simple throws into real, actual yards.

Generally speaking, we consider a play “successful: if it gains at least 40% of required yards on first down, 60% on second down, or converts a third down or fourth down. On Sunday, on his first catch, Deebo Samuel gained 8 yards on a short pass on first and 10. In the second quarter, he converted a 2^nd and 16 with a 16-yard catch over the middle leading to an eventual Jacory Croskey-Merritt rushing touchdown. In the two-minute drill near the end of the first half, the Commanders were facing second and 20 with 1:29 to go, and Deebo promptly gained 9 and 21 yards to convert, and keep the drive alive. And in the fourth quarter, he took a pass in the short right flat on third and five and gained 19 yards, setting up his own, eventual 19-yard rushing touchdown a few plays later. Every single Samuel reception resulted in a successful gain, and often led directly to a score.

This is an especially big deal for Washington because last season, their only real glaring weakness on offense was throwing to the middle of the field. Jayden Daniels was one of the best outside throwers in college, and that trend continued into his rookie season where he was third in DVOA throwing left and fourth throwing right, but 30^th to the middle. Part of that trend is just a Jayden Daniels preference, but some of it was also the underwhelming play of previous slot receiver Luke McCaffrey, who averaged just 9.9 yards per reception.

Deebo is almost 30, and nagging injuries and illnesses have been his biggest issue of late, but he’s healthy at the moment, and as long as he remains healthy, the Washington offense will be incredibly difficult to stop. They’re among the best rushing teams in the league, they destroy man defense with big plays on the outside, and for now, they have one of the best middle weapons in the game.

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