Connelly's Premier League 'ifs' list: How contenders can come together to win it all

Transfer season has ended for a few months, plus the first -- and most interruptive -- of international breaks is coming to a close. We can all actually now give our full attention to reasons why most of us enjoy soccer: the actual games. After a summer in which Premier League teams spent €3.6 billion in transfer fees, the rosters are locked into a place for a while and this weekend, the league season really begins in earnest.

That three-match prelude produced minimal separation -- 16 of 20 Premier League teams have between two and six points, and even the team that won its first three matches, defending champion Liverpool, did so with flaws and maximum drama. We settled nothing in the first 8% of the league season, and then everyone signed approximately 17 new players on the day of the transfer deadline.

It is, therefore, a pretty good time for a reset. If we combine the current projections from Opta's supercomputer with the current betting odds at ESPN BET, we can get a pretty good lay of the land and create decent estimated odds for both winning the title and finishing in the top five.

Using an old go-to of mine from the college football side -- how many ifs does it take for me to make you a contender? -- let's take a look at who has the most and fewest question marks among the Premier League's most (realistically) ambitious teams in 2025-26.

We'll break this into two parts: First we'll look at the four primary title contenders and the ifs required for them to win. Then we'll expand our focus to the race for a top-five finish, talking about each team with at least a 15% shot.

TITLE IFS

Four teams currently have at least an estimated 8% chance of winning the Premier League title: the top three teams in the current table (Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal), plus a Manchester City team that saw its four-year title streak end last May. How many ifs does each team require? (The fewer, the better.)

2 Ifs

Liverpool

If ... all these expensive attackers actually work together? Having already spent a combined €220 million in transfer fees to bring in Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen and Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt, Liverpool finally landed its first love, Newcastle's Alexander Isak, for a cool €145 million. This is absurd money, and while it gives the Reds attacking depth that almost no one else can rival, it hasn't yet given them a fluid attack.

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Isak obviously hasn't made his debut yet, but with an attack built around Ekitike, Wirtz, Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo, Liverpool averaged only 1.1 xG per match in their first three contests -- good for 14th in the league. That they averaged 2.7 actual goals represented some massive and unsustainable overachievement. With the addition of Isak, they now have three newcomers who are probably best in very similar, centralized areas of the pitch. (It's at least a slight reminder of Real Madrid's 2024 addition of Kylian Mbappé to an attack that already had Vinícius Júnior in the left side of the box. Star power went up, and actual goal scoring went down.)

Obviously Liverpool's initial schedule -- Bournemouth, at Newcastle, Arsenal -- was harder than most and tamped their averages down a bit, but this is an ongoing chemistry experiment and will be for a while.

If ... the transition defense isn't a disaster. It was pretty easy to theorize that, with all of this attacking talent coming in -- so much that Arne Slot has been playing free-kick wizard Dominik Szoboszlai at right back just to get him in the lineup while new right back Jeremie Frimpong is out with injury -- Liverpool's defense could end up quite vulnerable in transition. Two perfect counter-attacks from Bournemouth and four blown Liverpool leads in their first three contests (including the Community Shield) certainly reinforced that doubt. They couldn't get a deal for Crystal Palace's Marc Guéhi over the line either.

Granted, Liverpool kept a clean sheet against fellow contender Arsenal, but Arsenal barely even tries to counterattack. This is the Reds' biggest vulnerability by far until they prove otherwise.

Arsenal

If ... €190 million in new attackers can break down a parked bus. They didn't spend Liverpool money on new attackers, but Arsenal still laid down a combined €191.1 million for the services of Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting CP) and Noni Madueke (Chelsea). The goal of doing so was simple: Give Arsenal the talent, speed and creativity to break down bunkered-in defenses. No one scored more than Arsenal on set pieces last season (17 goals), but their 50 open-play goals drastically trailed the totals of both Liverpool (67) and Manchester City (62).

However, the early returns haven't been impressive: The new trio has combined for 443 minutes (Gyokeres 240, Madueke 183, Eze 20) and not including a penalty, produced just one goal from five shot attempts, barely one per 90 minutes. Incumbent star Bukayo Saka, meanwhile, has one goal from just two shots in 143 minutes.

These are indeed just early returns, and with their newfound depth and extreme defensive stability -- something the addition of defensive midfielder Martín Zubimendi certainly won't dampen -- they have time to figure things out. But until they do, they still might not have the scoring punch they need to cross the finish line in first for once.

If ... they can actually avoid parked buses sometimes. Just a little bit of urgency would go a long way. Looking specifically at losses and draws, Arsenal ranked just 19th in counterattacks per game (9.6), 19th in touches per shot in the attacking third (24.0), 18th in possessions per game (76.2) and 17th in buildup pass distance (17.7).

Mikel Arteta might be even more obsessed with control than former mentor Pep Guardiola, and hey, control's great. Even in losses, their defense and general stability were mostly good. But even when they had a reason to act with more urgency, they just couldn't do it. Eze and Gyokeres have both been pretty good in more direct systems; will they make a difference in this regard?

3 Ifs

Chelsea

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If ... the parade of quality shots (and set-piece prowess) continues. My biggest concern regarding Chelsea heading into the season was that, year after year, they keep bringing countless new attackers of different styles, ages and quality, and they wouldn't push toward best-in-England status until they let the roster gel a bit. I wrote about that in mid-August, and then they grabbed Alejandro Garnacho (a permanent move from Manchester United) and Facundo Buonanotte (on loan from Brighton) before the deadline, too.

The joke's on me so far. New additions João Pedro and Estêvão have delivered early, and after ranking eighth in xG per shot last season, they're currently first. Granted, that had a lot to do with playing against generous West Ham and Fulham defenses, but others have played weak defenses, too! They're also first in goal differential from set pieces, having scored four (including two from Pedro) and allowed zero. They were a very mediocre plus-2 (ninth) last season. Great start.

If ... the pressing game improves. While manager Enzo Maresca has plenty of dominant possession principles in his preferred playing style, he's not much for heavy pressing. Chelsea ranked only ninth in passes allowed per defensive action (12.0) and ninth in high turnovers forced (10.6) last season. Everyone above them in the 2024-25 table scored at least four more goals from high turnovers.

The numbers are about the same thus far. Chelsea are currently seventh in PPDA (11.1) and 12th in high turnovers (8.0 per game). With the depth they have put together, they should be able to run more and force the issue.

If ... wear and tear doesn't become an issue. Consider this a lingering worry for those who played deep into the summer's Club World Cup. Chelsea had an offseason that was low on sustained rest, and that probably makes them more vulnerable to wear-and-tear and injury doldrums down the line. We'll see.

4 Ifs

Manchester City

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If ... the transition defense is less disastrous. A ball-dominant team will occasionally fall off-balance in transition defense, but with reigning Ballon d'Or winner Rodri out with injury and squad age becoming a problem, City's transition D fell off a cliff. They allowed far more shots and far better shots, and ended up allowing 10 more league goals than in 2023-24.

Since January, City have spent nearly €500m to acquire nearly an entire lineup's worth of new players, but early this season the defense remains wonky. They've allowed four goals in three matches, two of which were from direct, length-of-the-pitch attacks.

If ... the midfield is spicier. It's hard to use team stats to grade a team's midfield, since most of the important stuff happens at one end of the pitch or the other. But here are some per-match City stats for you:

• Ball recoveries: 49.4 during four-year title streak (2020-24), 37.8 last season
• Defensive interventions: 88.5 during the streak, 80.3 last season
• Fouls committed: 8.7 during the streak, 7.6 last season

City don't need huge numbers in these categories, but last season's were too low. Opponents just didn't encounter enough midfield resistance. Early this season, they're committing more fouls (9.3) with more defensive interventions (89.3), but ball recoveries are even lower (37.0).

If ... the shot quality improves. It wasn't just the midfield and defense: City scored 24 fewer goals last season! Some of that was bad luck in the finishing department, but they also slipped to ninth in the league in xG per shot (0.16). This season, they're at 0.20, an excellent average, but they're still struggling in the finishing department.

If ... set pieces improve. City scored just seven set piece goals last season, down from an average of 16.5 during the title streak. They have zero through three matches this season, too.

TOP FIVE IFS

Each of the teams above has at least a 68% chance at a top-five finish and likely berth in next year's Champions League. (The Premier League is a heavy favorite to earn a fifth bid with its performance in UEFA competitions this season.)

They all have more margin for error in this race, but at least one more team, if not more, can still hope to slide into that top five.

2 Ifs

Newcastle United

If ... the goals come back. Despite losing Isak at the end of the summer transfer window after a prolonged saga, and despite managing just two points from three matches, Newcastle are the clear favorites for the final spot in the top five. They still have midfield stalwarts like Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali (they added Aston Villa's Jacob Ramsey, too), and anyone who watched Newcastle's two-goal, 10-man comeback against Liverpool (in an eventual 3-2 loss) knows that both the team and its fans still have some serious fire.

The main problem at the moment, however, is pretty obvious: They scored two set piece goals in 32 minutes in the second half against Liverpool, and in the season's other 238 minutes, they haven't scored. They probably should have in a 0-0 draw with a disappointing Villa (they had 16 shots worth 1.4 xG), but they were downright meek in attack in a 0-0 at Leeds. Meeting their goals will require late-August additions Nick Woltemade (Stuttgart) and Yoane Wissa (Brentford) to make contributions very quickly.

Until the ball starts going into the net, nothing else matters.

If ... they have the depth to run this hard. The upshot of those scoreless draws is, of course, that they didn't give up any goals either. In fact, they've been unfortunate to allow even three goals thus far considering they've allowed by far the lowest xG total (1.6). They've been running hard and rank second in the league in both ball recoveries and high turnovers; they're first in total possessions, too, ramping the tempo up even further than Bournemouth or David Moyes' Everton.

This physical output can pay off if you can keep it up, and Eddie Howe has already given at least 43 minutes to 17 guys even though Woltemade, Wissa and new midfielder Malick Thiaw haven't really been involved yet. But with Champions League play starting this week and matches against Barcelona, Bournemouth and Arsenal over just the next 2.5 weeks, we'll see if Howe tries to moderate the tempo a bit.

Manchester United

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• Currently: ninth (four points, +0 GD)
• Est. top-five odds: 21.3%

If ... someone, anyone, can finish. United's underlying numbers through three league matches are actually pretty good, especially in attack. They're first in shots per possession, first in shots from counterattacks and first in xG created (albeit with help from two penalties). They attempted 22 shots against Arsenal; no one had attempted more on the Gunners since City last September.

Of course, they've also scored only one open-play goal in three matches and four goals from shots worth 8.6 xG. Their xG-per-shot average is lacking, and no one is exactly putting on a finishing clinic.

After each overachieving their underlying xG numbers by an unsustainable degree -- and, therefore, coming to Manchester United when their respective purchase prices were at their highest -- newcomers Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo have combined for one goal from shots worth 1.9. Bruno Fernandes and Amad Diallo have combined for one goal from 2.6 xG, while expensive addition Benjamin Sesko has only created 0.4 xG in three substitute appearances, putting nothing in the net. Sesko, Mbeumo and Cunha cost €225.7m in transfer fees; they'll obviously need to prove their worth very soon.

If ... a defense-friendly setup actually defends. United are winning the shot volume battle by a lot, but they're losing the shot quality battle by a lot too. Manager Ruben Amorim is rigid in his love of the 3-4-2-1 formation, and in theory that should allow for plenty of bodies in the back of the defense. But while United are disrupting opponents' buildup play pretty well, they're getting hit hard by vertical attacks. They're 19th in xG allowed per shot despite having played Fulham and Burnley in addition to the non-vertical Arsenal. (One of Grimsby's two goals was off of a complete defensive breakdown too.)

The optimistic elements of United's game are actually shining through, and that's encouraging; it won't matter if the defense can't avoid the apocalypse.

Brighton

If ... the finishing returns. Despite what is now an impressive eight-season Premier League tenure, Brighton can usually be counted on to underachieve against its xG figures in attack. They've done so in all but one season, and they even did so while hitting 62 points with 72 goals (from 75.4 xG) in 2022-23.

Virtually everyone overachieved last season, however, even chronic xG underachiever Danny Welbeck, and Brighton scored 64 goals from shots worth 59.6 xG. Had they turned over a new leaf? Nope: They've scored just three times from shots worth 6.2 xG this season. (Welbeck: zero goals from 1.6.) They're second in xG per shot, and they've forced more high turnovers than anyone -- which can frequently lead to excellent opportunities -- but they have one open-play goal in three matches.

They scored once from shots worth 4.3 xG against Fulham and Everton; they probably should have won both matches but came away with a draw and a loss. That's a lot of unnecessarily dropped points already. Be it small-sample funkiness or a return to previous struggles, these struggles will obviously need to reverse themselves quickly if Brighton is to fully live up to its on-paper potential.

If ... this year's additions add something. No one is more accustomed to turnover than Brighton, who sent away another set of high-level prospects -- including Chelsea-bound Joao Pedro -- this summer. They of course then turned around and brought in a new set of exciting youngsters, including 18-year-old forward Charalampos Kostoulas and 19-year-old winger Tom Watson.

While new left back Maxim De Cuyper (24) has been an immediate contributor, Kostoulas, Watson and new center-back Diego Coppola (21) have combined for one minute of action. That the club is easing these players in makes perfect sense, but it's a lot harder to live up to potential in a given season if you aren't getting faster returns on summer investments.

Brighton plays the futures game as well as anyone, but that tends to hold them back a bit in the present.

Bournemouth

If ... the completely rebuilt defense continues to hold up. Like Brighton, Bournemouth are a pretty good test case for why you shouldn't be afraid to sell. Having improved from 15th to 12th to ninth in the Premier League table over the past two seasons, Andoni Iraola's squad lost a seemingly irreplaceable batch of defenders -- center-backs Ilya Zabarnyi (PSG) and Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid) and left back Milos Kerkez (Liverpool) -- for a combined €172.4 million. And yet, despite starting the season against Liverpool, their early defensive returns are strong.

• Shots allowed per possession: eighth in 2024-25, eighth early in 2025-26
• xG allowed per shot: seventh in 2024-25, fourth early in 2025-26

Since a wild 4-2 loss to Liverpool in the opener, they haven't given up a goal since, taking 1-0 decisions over West Ham and Spurs. So far, so good. Now you just have to keep it up for another 35 matches.

If ... the depth holds up this time. As impressive as it always is for Bournemouth to finish in the top half of the Premier League table, they were onto something even more impressive for a while: They were fifth in mid-February. But injuries, a lack of depth and a frenetic tempo all took hold, and they took only 13 points from their last 13 matches.

It isn't great to suffer from depth problems and then turn around and lose four of the six players who topped 2,400 minutes. But three new additions -- goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic, left back Adrien Truffert and center-back Bafodé Diakité -- have been like-for-like substitutions thus far and have played every minute, winger Amine Adli has seen minutes off the bench, and another winger, Ben Doak, should soon enough.

Iraola has slowed the tempo early on, as well: They've gone from averaging 91.4 possessions per game to 85.0. Maybe this all adds up to sustainability this time?

3 Ifs

Crystal Palace

If ... the depth holds up. The math here is pretty simple. Palace will be playing in Europe this season for the first time since logging two matches in the 1998 Intertoto Cup; they're guaranteed at least six Conference League matches, and as one of the highest-ranked teams in the competition -- and with a manager, Oliver Glasner, with lots of cup success on his résumé -- it'll probably be a lot more than that. But they lost star Eberechi Eze (Arsenal) and really only added three new outfield players with major experience. Is that enough to both withstand the European grind and move pretty far up from last year's 12th-place Premier League finish?

If ... the finishing somehow improves without Eze. Even with Eze and slight overachievement from veteran Jean-Phillippe Mateta, Palace still wasted more chances than anyone in the league in 2024-25, scoring just 51 goals from shots worth 61.2 xG. Granted, they countered that with overachievement in the FA Cup (which earned the European bid), but will exciting new attacking options Yeremy Pino (four goals and nine assists with Villarreal last season) and Christantus Uche (four and six with Getafe) add enough creativity to make up for Eze's departure?

Even without newcomer contributions, this year has started encouragingly, with five points and a Community Shield win over Liverpool. But the show is just beginning.

If ... a Plan B emerges. Glasner has crafted a well-oiled counterattacking team; Palace were 17th in possession rate last season (42.5%) with the lowest pass completion rate in the league (77.3%) but the third-most counterattacking shots and ball recoveries. They force you into a specific type of game and hit you when you leave too much space behind the ball. But when that didn't work, they didn't have any other plan. They both dropped points against Southampton and Leicester City and took only six points in 10 matches against last year's top five.

Top-five finishers come up with alternatives; Palace did not last season.

Tottenham Hotspur

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• Currently: fourth (six points, +4 GD)
• Est. top-five odds: 23.1%

If ... the creativity gap is filled. The vibes are confusing right now. On one hand, Spurs finished 17th in the league, fired Ange Postecoglou, lost James Maddison to long-term injury and Son Heung-Min to MLS (after losing Dejan Kulusevski to long-term injury in May) and made headlines for all the players they missed in the transfer market. On the other hand, they won the Europa League (thereby qualifying for the Champions League), snagged Xavi Simons and Randal Kolo Muani late in the transfer window and have six points and a win over Manchester City after three matches.

Things could be worse! But even with two wins, Thomas Frank's Spurs rank just 19th in xG per shot, a sign that the recent creativity drain is an issue. Son, Maddison and Kulusevski combined for 32 assists from 217 chances created in all competitions last season, and both Simons and Kolo Muani will need to prove their capabilities immediately.

If ... the defense pushes back a bit more. And gets healthy. Center-back Radu Dragusin is also battling back from long-term injury, and new addition Kota Takai is hurt as well. Spurs have allowed only one goal, but there's luck in that: They've allowed shots worth 4.1 xG, and they're 18th in shots allowed per possession. Guglielmo Vicario is a good goalkeeper, but he's not going to save 93% of shots on target all season.

At some point, Spurs will need to start turning possessions over before they reach dangerous areas.

If ... set pieces are more productive. Frank's Brentford led the league with a +11 goal differential on set pieces last season; they were good enough at them that Brentford replaced Frank with the set pieces coach, Keith Andrews. Spurs? Terrible on set pieces last year (-4 GD) and merely breaking even season (zero scored, zero allowed). The more Brentford-like they can be in this regard, the better odds of a top-five finish.

4 Ifs

Aston Villa

If ... the closing transfer window restores focus. Villa are by far the most disappointing team in the league early on. After three straight top-seven finishes, they currently have one point and zero goals. Considering the talent on the roster, that's inexcusable, but with constant transfer rumors circulating around both Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins, distractions were everywhere. Rogers and Watkins combined for zero goal contributions and just five chances created in 540 minutes. At least the rumors will die down for a bit now.

If ... um, they score at some point. Finishing has obviously been an issue -- Villa have attempted shots worth 2.5 xG, and none have gone in -- but that 2.5 figure also ranks 19th in the league, and they rank dead last in xG per shot. Late-window loan additions Jadon Sancho and Harvey Elliott should help, but damn, these numbers are awful.

If ... the crippling defensive breakdowns stop. What's worse than ranking 20th in xG per shot? Also ranking 20th in xG allowed per shot! Villa are dominating the ball, getting nothing from it, then giving up breakaways in the opposite direction. Everything's trended in the wrong direction, too, with a draw, then a 1-0 loss, then a 3-0 loss. And they'll return from break without either of two defensive midfielders -- Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara -- who are battling minor injuries. Yikes.

If ... the set piece magic returns. Villa scored 16 set-piece goals last season (fourth in the league). This season, they have not only scored none, but they also rank 19th in xG created from set pieces. The danger is gone.