Your guide to the WNBA semis: Predictions, MVP finalists and ... No. 6 seed Indiana

The New York Liberty won't have a chance to defend their WNBA championship. The Phoenix Mercury eliminated the fifth-seeded Liberty on Friday to advance to the 2025 WNBA semifinals.

After losing at home in the opener of their first-round series, the No. 4 seed Mercury beat the Liberty in Games 2 and 3 and now face the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in Game 1 of the semifinals on Sunday (ESPN, 5 p.m. ET).

Phoenix's Alyssa Thomas had one of her signature triple-doubles -- her ninth of the season -- in Friday's 79-73 victory.

On the other side of the bracket, the No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces host the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever in Game 1 of their semifinal series on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ABC).

Las Vegas and Indiana advanced on game-winning shots in the final 12 seconds in their winner-take-all games Thursday.

Before the semifinals -- which will feature four of the five MVP finalists -- open, we break down each matchup and predict which teams will reach the WNBA Finals.

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Minnesota-Phoenix | Las Vegas-Indiana

(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (4) Phoenix Mercury

Regular-season series: Minnesota went 3-1 against Phoenix

May 30: Lynx 74, Mercury 71 (at Phoenix)

June 3: Lynx 88, Mercury 65 (at Minnesota)

July 9: Mercury 79, Lynx 71 (at Phoenix)

July 16: Lynx 79, Mercury 66 (at Minnesota)

First round: The Lynx were the only one of the top-four seeds to sweep their opening series, but they almost got pushed to a Game 3, too. After a 101-72 win in Game 1 at Minneapolis last Sunday, the Lynx edged the Golden State Valkyries 75-74 in Game 2 on Wednesday in San Jose, California.

The Mercury fell 76-69 in overtime to New York in Game 1 at home last Sunday. Facing elimination in Game 2 on the road, they dominated the Liberty 86-60 on Wednesday. Then Friday, despite a combined 55 points from New York's Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, the Mercury won 79-73 thanks to Thomas' 20 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists, and Satou Sabally's 23 points and 12 rebounds.

What we're hearing about the Lynx

With the Valkyries playing to extend their season, the Lynx had to dig a little deeper in their Game 2 victory. That challenge reinforced how hard the Lynx are to beat in a series of any length. They don't lose their confidence even when everything seems to be going right for their opponent. The Lynx haven't been intimidated when facing a rare big deficit this season.

The Lynx went into crunch time in Game 2 vs. the Valkyries certain they would execute well when it mattered the most -- and they did. Minnesota has been the most consistent team in the league this season, so it's not surprising the Lynx took care of business quickly in the first round.

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Lynx come back to win thriller to end first-round series

The Lynx storm back vs. the Valkyries with a 75-74 win to close out the series.

What we're hearing about the Mercury

This season started a new era for the Mercury after Diana Taurasi retired and Brittney Griner departed in free agency. Both were staples of Phoenix's last championship. Thomas and fellow forward Sabally were the two major offseason acquisitions.

Thomas, an MVP candidate, has been a top defensive player for many years -- even before developing her prowess for triple-doubles. And the Mercury's defense propelled them through the first round.

The Liberty averaged 84.4 points during the regular season but that dropped to 69.7 in three postseason games against the Mercury. The Liberty might have taken too many 3-pointers when they were so cold behind the arc Friday (7 of 32, 21.9%), but that was a pattern the entire series. The Mercury defense deserves credit for forcing the Liberty to look uncomfortable on offense in the last two games of the series. But that will be a bigger challenge against the Lynx.

How they match up

The Lynx won the regular-season series, but all four games were played before the All-Star break. The Mercury were not at full strength in any of those games because of injuries. Kahleah Copper missed all four matchups, while Thomas and Sabally each missed two. DeWanna Bonner, the Mercury's top reserve and fourth-leading scorer, played only twice against the Lynx because she was still with the Indiana Fever during the first two meetings.

Minnesota star Napheesa Collier missed the first game against the Mercury, but played in the other three.

The Lynx and Mercury are the top two teams left in the playoffs in made 3-pointers per game during the regular season; Minnesota averaged 9.6 per game and Phoenix 9.4. The Lynx had a net rating of plus-12.3 to the Mercury's plus-3.4. But other than Atlanta (plus-10), no team was close to the Lynx in that category.

Minnesota didn't have to prepare for a healthy Phoenix roster, which we're seeing now. The Lynx's approach to that will be one of the most interesting insights from Game 1.

What will most impact the series

The Lynx led the league in defensive rating in the regular season. Can they disrupt Thomas' ability to make plays for herself and teammates? With strong, skilled post players such as co-Defensive Player of the Year Alanna Smith, Collier and Jessica Shepard, Minnesota should make things more difficult for Thomas. That's why Phoenix needs Sabally and Copper, the 2021 WNBA Finals MVP with Chicago, to play at a high level in the series. But preventing Thomas from taking over games is key.

Minnesota will advance if: The Lynx don't run into excessive dry spells on offense. Minnesota's defense has been so reliable this season that it's hard to see it breaking down much. The Lynx also execute well late in games and can rally when necessary. All of those things make it difficult to beat them in a series.

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Kahleah Copper's falling finish helps Mercury eliminate Liberty

Kahleah Copper gets into the lane and makes a layup while falling down to give the Mercury a 78-73 lead with 32 seconds left.

Phoenix will advance if: Thomas and Sabally score and rebound at a high level. At their best, they are the two Mercury players most capable of breaking down the Lynx's elite defense. And they can help Phoenix on the boards. If they both play like superstars and the Mercury can win one of the first two games on the road, the heat will be on the Lynx in Phoenix.

Who will win the series?

Kendra Andrews: Lynx in 5

Charlie Creme: Lynx in 5

Myron Medcalf: Lynx in 5

Kevin Pelton: Lynx in 5

Michael Voepel: Lynx in 4

(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (6) Indiana Fever

Regular-season series: Indiana went 2-1 against Las Vegas

June 22: Aces 89, Fever 81 (at Las Vegas)

July 3: Fever 81 Aces 54 (at Indiana)

July 24: Fever 80, Aces 70 (at Indiana)

BPI: Las Vegas has a 64.2% chance of advancing to the WNBA Finals, 17.4% chance of winning the WNBA title; Indiana has a 35.8% chance to reach the Finals, 6.4% to win the championship.

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Fever top Dream, head to WNBA semifinals

The Indiana Fever, led by Kelsey Mitchell's 24 points, defeat the Atlanta Dream 87-85 and move on to the WNBA semifinals.

First round: After dropping Game 1 in Atlanta, Indiana routed the Dream at home to force Game 3. Despite trailing for almost 30 minutes, the Fever pulled out a win in a decisive Game 3.

Las Vegas won handily in its first game at home, then dropped a close Game 2 when the Storm outscored the Aces 25-14 in the fourth quarter. On Thursday, the Aces won a back-and-forth fourth quarter to hold off Seattle to win their three-game series.

What we're hearing about the Aces

Becky Hammon said she has some concern about how well the Storm shut down the Aces' 3-point shooting in Las Vegas' 74-73 Game 3 victory Thursday -- the Aces were 3-of-12 beyond the arc. That put even more pressure on center A'ja Wilson.

That said, one of the biggest plays of the game came from Young with the putback of Wilson's miss that proved to be the winning basket. The experience that the Aces get from their big three of Wilson, Young and Chelsea Gray was a major factor in pulling out their first-round series and could be pivotal for their chance to advance to the WNBA Finals again.

Hammon said the Aces didn't guard the entirety of the court in Game 2 at Seattle, which cost them. They did that better in winning Game 3, but it still came down to the wire. Even though it was nerve-wracking for the Aces, their first-round series going the distance and being tested might have been the best thing that could have happened before facing Indiana in the semifinals.

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Aces hold off Storm behind Wilson's 38 to advance in WNBA playoffs

The Las Vegas Aces topped the Seattle Storm 74-73 to take the series behind 38 points from A'ja Wilson.

What we're hearing about the Fever

Even during the regular season, as player after player went down because of injury, the Fever consistently maintained that they had big goals, and that they could make some noise in the playoffs. Mission accomplished. The outside world might have counted them out against the Dream -- go back and look at ESPN's first-round picks -- but the Fever never wavered in their belief.

After the game Thursday, Kelsey Mitchell and Natasha Howard shared glowing remarks on how special Stephanie White has been as a coach, as she has guided this group through so much adversity this season, leading White to wipe away a tear. To advance to the semifinals, this group made winning plays on both ends, but its chemistry and cohesion has been its special sauce.

How they match up

The Fever won the regular-season series 2-1 -- and both wins came with Caitlin Clark sidelined. But all three matchups were before the Aces put together a 17-game win streak that catapulted them back into the title conversation. And before Indiana's success this season, Las Vegas dominated the series: Their 16 straight wins against the Fever marked the second-longest win streak against a single opponent in WNBA history.

Gamecocks fans will be torn watching South Carolina greats Wilson and Aliyah Boston battle inside, but both teams also have fantastic guards, Mitchell for the Fever and Young, Gray and Jewell Loyd for the Aces. Las Vegas has the edge in depth and experience: This will be the team's seventh straight semifinals appearance; Indiana hasn't made it this far in the postseason since 2015.

What will most impact the series

Loyd has the chance to be an X factor, especially if she is feeling confident from beyond the arc. Her ability to stretch the defense can make a big difference in the Aces being able to take over games. Loyd doesn't have to be the superstar scorer she was for a lot of her career at Seattle, but she'll need to make an impact in every game.

Indiana needs a third scorer behind Mitchell and Boston. Can Howard fill that role? The Fever would also love to see Lexie Hull get going from beyond the arc and some big games from point guard Odyssey Sims.

Las Vegas will advance if: The Aces are able to defend at their highest level, which was the case in their Game 1 victory over Seattle. They kept the Storm uncomfortable most of that game, and they will look to do it against a Fever squad that can go on offensive dry spells. Young is the premier perimeter defender and will look to try to slow down Mitchell as much as possible, but Wilson said the Aces can't leave Young to do that all by herself. The rest of the Aces also need to provide a little more offensive support for Wilson, although she is used to carrying a very heavy load.

Indiana will advance if: The Fever have struggled with defensive consistency this season, but they'll have to be at their sharpest to slow down an Aces squad that had the league's best offense during its 16-game win streak to end the regular season. That includes defending without fouling, which has been an issue at times for Indiana. Offensively, they can't overly rely on Mitchell to score and desperately need to find more success from beyond the arc -- they made only 29% of their 3s in the first round.

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A'ja Wilson: 'We weathered the Storm ... but the job’s not done'

A'ja Wilson reflects on the Aces’ gritty 74-73 win over the Storm to advance to the WNBA semifinals.

Key stats: Watch the Aces' assists. The Aces produced 12 assists (and an average of 15.5 turnovers) in their two losses to Indiana this season, but 19 assists with only 13 turnovers in the win. And that matches with the Aces' tendency all season: In their 14 losses, the Aces averaged 15.6 APG. But starting near the end of June, in 23 wins the Aces averaged 21.9 APG.

Including the playoffs, the Aces are 16-3 this season when they have at least 20 team assists -- and two of those losses came against the Storm. Bottom line: If the Aces move the ball, they have a good chance to win this series. -- Andre Snellings

Wilson has been dominant against the Fever, scoring at least 20 points in nine of her last 10 games. During the 2025 regular season, however, she shot 13-of-36 (36%) when contested by Boston. -- Eric Moody

Betting nugget: The spread in the upcoming Fever-Aces series is Fever +2.5 (-115), which means even a single Fever win in the series would win the bet. Based on regular-season matchups and first-round performances, the Fever profile as a team that have a reasonable chance to win at least one game in this series. -- Snelling

In the regular-season series, Las Vegas and Indiana were identical against the spread (23-21) and totals (21 overs, 23 unders), so expect another tight, evenly matched playoff series. -- Moody

Who will win the series?

Kendra Andrews: Aces in 4

Charlie Creme: Aces in 4

Myron Medcalf: Aces in 4

Eric Moody: Aces in 5

Kevin Pelton: Aces in 5

Alexa Philippou: Aces in 5

Andre Snelling: Aces in 4

Michael Voepel: Aces in 5