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Yankees vs. Red Sox: Rivalry showdown will shape AL playoff picture

Baseball’s most notorious rivalry is slated for its final regular-season chapter this weekend, with the Red Sox and Yankees set to open a crucial three-game set on Friday in Boston.

It promises to be a tantalizing showdown, one that might just be an appetizer for an October entree. The two clubs would match up in a postseason series as things currently stand, but there’s ample time for the deck to shuffle over the final few weeks.

What’s at stake?

The two teams are separated by just a half-game in the standings, even at 81 wins with Boston carrying an additional loss. Crucially, the Red Sox have already clinched the season-long tiebreaker over their rivals. Boston has clobbered New York so far this year, with an 8-2 record in 10 games against the Yankees, punctuated by an emphatic three-games-to-one series victory in the Bronx back in August.

If the season ended today, the clubs would square off in a best-of-three wild-card series with all three games hosted by the higher-seeded Yankees. If they finish with identical records, Boston would leap New York, and that series would take place at Fenway Park. Entering play Friday, neither the Sox nor the Yanks are in immediate danger of dropping out of the playoff picture altogether; they have cushions of four and 4.5 games, respectively, in the AL wild-card race. As such, this weekend’s showdown is all about jockeying for position and securing home-field advantage.

However, if one team were to sweep all three games, that could put real pressure on the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays. The Canadian outfit has led the division for months now and holds a three-game lead on New York and a 3.5-game lead on Boston entering the weekend. The Jays are home the next few nights against a pesky Baltimore team that has been playing well lately.

Who is slated to pitch?

Friday: Luis Gil (NYY) vs. Lucas Giolito (BOS)

Saturday: Max Fried (NYY) vs. Brayan Bello (BOS)

Sunday: Will Warren (NYY) vs. Garrett Crochet (BOS)

On paper, Boston has a slight pitching advantage this weekend, as its three best starters are slated to toe the slab at Fenway. Giolito, who missed all of last year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, has had a resurgent 2025 for the Sox. He didn’t return until late April, then was supremely inconsistent for a month as he shook off the rust. But since June 10, the gangly Californian has the sixth-lowest ERA among qualified starters (2.23). The underlying numbers are less bullish, but Giolito has found a way to limit runs for months.

Bello has taken a huge step forward in his age-26 season to emerge as one of MLB’s better ground ball pitchers. The whippy Dominican has leaned on his cutter more recently, which might necessitate another shift in approach: New York leads baseball with a 1.095 OPS against right-handed cutters.

Crochet bounced back from his crummiest start of the season in his most recent outing, tossing a seven-inning, scoreless gem in Sacramento after scuffling at home in a four-homer clunker against Cleveland. He’s an ace’s ace, a near-lock to finish second in the American League Cy Young. Having him penciled in for a potential rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball is a convenient bit of scheduling for Boston. Crochet has already faced the Yankees three times this year — 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 innings with 27 strikeouts — and is in line to face them yet again in Game 1 of a playoff series.

The Yanks will send Luis Gil to the mound in Friday’s opener. It has been a truncated year for the well-tattooed righty. After winning AL Rookie of the Year last year, Gil was sidelined for the first four months of this season due to a high-grade lat strain. He has been solid since returning, though his strikeout rate is lower than you’d expect from a big-stuff hurler like this. It’s worth noting that Gil has been sensational against the Red Sox in his career, with just three runs allowed across four starts.

Max Fried has had a season in three parts: brilliance, mediocrity, rejuvenation. He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate through the first three months, with a 1.92 ERA in 17 starts. But the wheels came flying off when the calendar flipped to June, and he posted a brutal 6.80 ERA over his next eight outings. He has regained his footing over his past four, the first of which was against Boston. Fried is still one of the premier pitchers in the game, but he’d have to be considered the underdog in a Game 1 playoff matchup against Crochet.

Lastly, Warren has been a surprising workhorse for the Yankees in his rookie season, with 147 innings across 30 starts. Here’s a wild stat: Warren is the first Yankees rookie to start 30 games in a season since Doc Medich in 1973. His fastball plays well, but the rest of the 26-year-old’s arsenal has been a work in progress. Fried and Carlos Rodón will start Games 1 and 2 of any Yankees playoff series. This weekend will be a nice showcase for Warren and Gil to stake their claim for a Game 3 start.

Who’s hot?

Ready for a non-surprise? Aaron Judge is playing well. That pesky elbow issue has undeniably limited him defensively, but the reigning AL MVP seems to have rediscovered his power stroke, with three tanks in New York’s recent series against the Tigers. Catcher Austin Wells, who had lost playing time to the ascendant Ben Rice, and sweet-swinging second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. have also gotten off to nice September starts for the Bombers.

Also keep an eye on Cody Bellinger. He’s one of baseball’s best low-ball hitters against right-handed pitching. Both Giolito (heavy middle-down changeup usage) and Bello (sinkerballer) like to pepper the bottom of the zone. This could be a big series for Bellinger.

For Boston, keep an eye on Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez, both of whom obliterate left-handed pitching. The platooners both have OPSes north of 1.000 this month, with Gonzalez carrying a 12-game hitting streak. It’ll be interesting to see how those two fare against Fried on Saturday.

Beyond that, lately it has been all about catcher Carlos Narváez and shortstop Trevor Story, both of whom have provided much-needed juice in the absence of recently injured, big-slugging rookie Roman Anthony.

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