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Yankees at Blue Jays - ALDS Game 1 prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, trends, and stats

Saturday afternoon, the New York Yankees (94-68) and the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) take the field at Rogers Centre for Game 1 of their Divisional Round playoff series. The Jays won the American League East and secured the top seed in the American League playoffs thanks to an 8-5 record in 13 games against the Yankees.

The Yankees defeated the Red Sox in the Wild Card round, two games to one. Rookie Cam Schlittler was outstanding for New York allowing just five singles over eight shutout innings while striking out 12. Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe each hit .364 in the series to pace the attack.

The Blue Jays calling card has been their offense this season. They led baseball with a .265 average scoring an average of 4.9 runs per game (fourth best in baseball). Toronto strikes out just 6.8 times per game (second best in baseball). Vlad Guerrero Jr. paced the Jays’ attack. The slugger hit .292 with 23 home runs and 84 RBIs. Bo Bichette has been another key part of Toronto’s success. He has been hampered by an issue with his knee. If he is unable to play, that is a massive blow to the Jays’ chances in this series.

Luis Gil is slated to take the mound for New York against Kevin Gausman for Toronto in the series opener.

Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch the first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Yankees at Blue Jays

Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
Time: 4:08PM EST
Site: Rogers Centre
City: Toronto, ON
Network/Streaming: FOX

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Yankees at the Blue Jays

The latest odds as of Saturday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Yankees (+105), Blue Jays (-125)
Spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+167)
Total: 8.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for Yankees at Blue Jays

Pitching matchup for October 4, 2025: Luis Gil vs. Kevin Gausman
- Yankees: Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA)
- Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA)

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Yankees at Blue Jays

Aaron Judge is 17-48 (.354) with 12 HRs against Kevin Gausman in his career
Paul Goldschmidt is 10-22 (.455) in his career against Kevin Gausman
Toronto won 8 of 13 games against the Yankees during the regular season

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

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Expert picks & predictions for Game 1 between the Yankees and the Blue Jays

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s game between the Yankees and the Blue Jays:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the New York Yankees at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.

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