WNBA Commissioner's Cup: It's anyone's game as Lynx, Storm, Liberty, Fever and Dream vie for championship berths

It was always a matter of when, not if, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx would lose their first games of the season.

Quite the treacherous time to take defeat, though.

The snapping of each of the Liberty and Lynx’s undefeated seasons last week sets up a thrilling finish to the fifth annual Commissioner’s Cup, and puts a rematch of last year's championship game and Finals in serious doubt. The 2024 season finalists are among five teams — including the Fever, Dream and Storm — in contention heading into the final night of Cup play on Tuesday, when every team but the Phoenix Mercury takes the court.

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It is the first time in the competition’s five-year history that no team has advanced before the final day of games. In three instances, at least one conference berth came down to the wire. In 2022, when the Cup played out via a long, winding 10-game window, both the Aces and Sky clinched early.

Call it a welcome double winner-take-all sight as the league continues to grow its premier in-season tournament. Any night of the WNBA schedule holds intrigue, but this one is a jam-packed slate of consequence with $500,000 hanging in the balance. And a new Commissioner’s Cup finals entrant could sweep in, upending the expected Lynx-Liberty rematch.

That would push their first Finals rematch to their regular-season game on July 30, an extended wait within a league of 13 teams.

The Lynx are still in control of their own destiny after a 94-84 defeat to Seattle last week snapped their perfect 9-0 start and opened the door for the Storm to again contest the Western Conference. They tied 4-1 atop the Western Cup standings a year ago, but the Lynx won the head-to-head and went on to win the Cup title.

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Minnesota (10-1; 4-1 in Cup play) can win a second consecutive berth with a victory over the Aces (5-5; 2-3). It’s a matchup of teams heading in opposite directions this month. The Lynx are ascending behind MVP candidate Napheesa Collier (league-best 26.1 ppg on a 53.3/44.4/93 shooting clip), while the Aces are plummeting further without reigning MVP A’ja Wilson (20.9 ppg ranks fourth). Wilson is in concussion protocol, but even with her in the lineup, the team has sputtered on both ends.

A win by the Storm (6-5; 3-2) at the Sparks, coupled with a Lynx loss, has the Storm winning this year’s head-to-head tiebreaker. A scenario in which they both lose on Tuesday goes Minnesota’s way. Golden State and Phoenix are out of contention despite a potential four-way tiebreaker atop the standings. (The tiebreaker is the overall Cup record against the teams in the tiebreaker, and both have two losses among the three other teams.)

In the East, Caitlin Clark’s return from a quad injury, coupled with the absence of Liberty starters Jonquel Jones and Leonie Fiebich, squashed New York’s franchise-best 9-0 start. The Liberty are facing a situation in which they’ll need “massive help,” as head coach Sandy Brondello aptly put it following a 102-88 loss to Indiana on Saturday.

To advance to their third consecutive Cup finals — a record in the tournament’s short history — the Liberty need to defeat Atlanta at home (doable) and have the two-win Connecticut Sun upset the Fever (quite the task). The Dream present a double-big lineup with Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner, and a 3-point-heavy offense that can pose the same problems Clark did to the Liberty on Saturday. New York, potentially still without Jones, wants to get back to itself and — at least outwardly — has eyes set further than the Cup.

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“In the end, it’s about being the best team at the end of the season, and that’s what we got to make sure that we continue to focus on,” Brondello said.

The Dream (8-3; 3-1 Cup) hold the cards to their own ending and can earn the berth by simply winning at Barclays Center. Atlanta’s Allisha Gray is the league’s second-best scorer (21 ppg) through the season’s first quarter, shooting 51% overall, while backcourt mate Rhyne Howard found her shot playing off-ball in point guard Jordin Canada’s return to the lineup.

Indiana (5-5; 3-1 Cup) can advance with a win and a New York win. The Fever are nearly back to full strength, playing with pace and poise in Clark’s return to the lineup. There’s a high probability the Sun provide little resistance to anything the Fever want to do offensively, much like New York’s bashing of their regional rival earlier this month. The Sun (-22 net rating ranks last by eight points) won one of their two games when Indiana was without Clark, and Sydney Colson and Sophie Cunningham sustained in-game injuries. Then again, the other was against a healthy Dream team when center Tina Charles and guard Marina Mabrey played their best games.

Neither the Fever nor the Dream has played in the Cup finals (Seattle won the inaugural 2021 game played after the lull of the Olympic break). Not only is it about the cash infusion, it’s about the statement (see: 2024 Lynx) and that long-term progression.

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Although only one Cup winner has gone on to win the WNBA title, it’s a proven harbinger of postseason battles to come. And putting players into championship-level experiences is always a good thing, particularly when those stars are lacking it on the professional level.

In a Cup tournament of intrigue heading into the final five hours, there’s one major miss. The schedule successfully misses the NBA Finals (Game 5 was Monday night and Game 6 is not until Thursday), but still isn’t on major TV networks. Two games are airing on NBA TV — and the final game of the night with Seattle might be moot — while the three others are on League Pass.

The finales being more widely available and spread out slightly would be a boon for the product that’s increasingly reaching the consequence levels league officials have hawked since the Cup’s inception.