Why the dominance of Tadej Pogacar and the ‘big four’ will warp the 2025 Tour de France

The weird and wonderful Tour de France circus begins with the Grand Depart in Lille on Saturday, and this year’s route is notable for its simplicity: the Tour will be held exclusively in France for the first time in five years, finishing in Paris on 27 July. It ends with a twist on stage 21 after organisers threw in a triple loop of the steep cobbles of Montmartre on the 50th anniversary of the race’s first finish on the Champs-Elysees, once a wacky idea but now such an integral part of the canvas.

The Tour loves an anniversary and you may notice tributes to Bernard Hinault sprinkled through the route, 40 years after his fifth and final yellow jersey in 1985, a nice touch even if it serves to underline the long, long French wait for another home winner. You can bet Hinault would not have predicted Slovenia would be the dominant nation in the Alps and Pyrenees 40 years on, not least because it didn’t yet exist.

Tadej Pogacar and his fellow Slovenian Primoz Roglic make up two of “the big four”, along with Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel and the Dane Jonas Vingegaard, who all start the Tour de France for the second year in a row. Last year’s mouthwatering four-way contest was scuppered by a crash in the opening week which killed off Roglic’s challenge and harmed Evenepoel’s, and much of the talk among them this week has been simply of survival.

“The first week of the Tour is one of the most intense, nervous weeks,” Pogacar said. “You can quite easily lose the Tour de France in the first 10 days until the first rest day. I don’t think my goal should be to aim to gain time for the first week, you just need to take care and not screw up the whole Tour.”

It is a star-studded peloton, with daring one-day maestros Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel, sprint kings Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay, not to mention the grand tour champions playing support roles in Geraint Thomas and Simon Yates, the latter fresh (or not so fresh) off his triumph at the Giro d’Italia only five weeks ago.

There are a few notable names missing such as Richard Carapaz, ruled out with a stomach bug, and those who focused on the Giro like Egan Bernal, Tom Pidcock and Mads Pedersen. But for the most part, the biggest draws in men’s cycling will be on the start line in Lille.

Yet any hopes of a compelling battle for the yellow jersey might be optimistic. Roglic is one of the greatest stage-racers of his generation, but he is a rung below Pogacar and Vingegaard in the mountains and his Giro exertions will surely have taken a toll, crashing out on stage 16. His goal is simply to finish the race. “I just want to get to Paris and drink a glass of Champagne there,” he said.

Evenepoel has spent the year recovering from his horrifying crash into a postal car’s open door while training in December. The double Olympic champion suffered fractures to his ribs, shoulder blade and hand, contusions to his lungs and a dislocation of his right clavicle that left the surrounding ligaments torn. “There’s a part of the shoulder muscle that is not working at all for the moment,” he explained. “If I were a tennis, a volleyball or basketball player, my career would have been over. Luckily I’m a cyclist.”

Evenepoel’s brilliance against the clock means he can target grabbing the yellow jersey at the first time trial on stage five, but his hopes of competing for the overall win are remote against the climbing power of multiple champions Pogacar and Vingegaard, and a repeat of last year’s podium place would be a successful Tour.

“It’s logical as they won together the last five editions, so it means they are top favourites for this year’s edition again,” Evenepoel said. “It would be unfair towards myself, towards the team, to say that I’m not here to compete with them, so I’m just here to try to make it a bit harder. Last year I was the third guy and I think we’re here to improve that a bit.”

That leaves two of the big four. Vingegaard won the yellow jersey in 2022 and again in 2023, but last year’s preparation was badly damaged by a crash and he could not cope with Pogacar in the final week. He arrives fully fit this time around, but his defeat by Pogacar at last month’s Criterium du Dauphine – always a bellwether for Tour de France form – showed a clear gap between them.

Stage six of the Dauphine was enthralling as Pogacar attacked on the steepest climb to first crack Evenepoel, before surging again to break Vingegaard and crest the mountain alone. The big four will all be in the peloton, but one is not like the others.

Vingegaard insists he is here not just to compete with but to beat his rival, having beefed up over the winter. “Last year I was on a very high level at the Tour de France but I was a lot lighter,” he said. “I’m heavier now, but it’s muscle, and we know that it gives a lot more power as well. I can say I’m on the highest level that I’ve ever been, and we’ll see if it’s enough or not.”

Yet Pogacar has reached levels few thought possible over the past 18 months. Last season’s Giro-Tour-World Championships treble was one of the greatest seasons ever put together on the road, after which Eddy Merckx said Pogacar had already surpassed him, even at only 26 and with so much to come. Only injury or misfortune can slow Pogacar down and unfortunately for his rivals, his season has thus far been immaculate.

“I’m lucky to have had close to the perfect preparation this year,” he said. “Everything has gone really smoothly, especially coming off a great altitude camp with my teammates.”

The warping effect of Pogacar’s GC dominance and the big four’s likely grip on the podium is that everyone else is scrabbling for stage wins. “The flat stages are for Jasper [Philipsen], the hills are for me,” said Van der Poel this week, looking to add to his solitary Tour stage victory. Thomas said: “A stage win would be amazing,” while his Ineos teammate Filippo Ganna is going “all in” on the stage-five time trial. Ineos are well off the GC pace and so their entire Tour de France – like Lidl-Trek, Jayco-Alula, Israel-Premier Tech, Bahrain Victorious and so many other teams – will live and die by stage victories.

The problem is that there are only 21 to go around, and far fewer once Pogacar has collected his inevitable haul. As ever, the road to Paris will be littered with broken bones and busted ambition. It is part of why Tour de France glory tastes so sweet.