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Week 3 NFL best bets, picks, predictions: Our favorite Week 3 NFL wagers

Week 3 of the NFL season started with a workmanlike 31-21 win for the Buffalo Bills (-12) over the Miami Dolphins. The game went over the total of 49.5, and pushed favorites of at least 4.5 points to a perfect 13-0 straight up on the season.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng and Michael Fiddle combine to give their best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season. This file will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 42)

BetMGM betting splits: 53% of bets, 61% of money on Vikings -3

Craig: This isn’t the matchup anyone expected: Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz instead of Joe Burrow against J.J. McCarthy. Browning came off the bench last week to help Cincinnati escape with a win over Jacksonville, but the spot favors Wentz and Minnesota here. The Vikings opened at -5.5 before quarterback news swung the line as low as -2.5, but sharp money has brought it back to -3. Wentz should be able to operate Kevin O’Connell’s offense effectively, especially throwing to Justin Jefferson. With Minnesota’s defense graded higher than Cincinnati’s, the edge goes to the Vikings in this battle of backups.

Bet: Vikings -3 (-105)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, 44.5) at New England Patriots

BetMGM betting splits: 68% of bets, 85% of money on Steelers -1.5

Fiddle: One stat I heard this offseason that lives rent free in my mind was that last year Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson had the same amount of scrambles, despite Maye playing in six fewer games.

Fast forward to what we have seen this season, and the Pittsburgh defense is getting gashed on the ground. Through two weeks, the Steelers have allowed both opponents to have a 100-yard rusher; Breece Hall had 107 yards on 19 carries and Kenneth Walker had 105 on 13 attempts.

The problems are all from running away from defensive star T.J. Watt. On run plays right, towards Watt, opponents average just over 2 yards per carry; running left nets over 6 yards per carry. In this game I not only expect Maye to scramble away from one of the best defensive ends in the league, but to mix in some designed QB runs as well. Personally, this is the largest bet I have placed on a prop this season, thinking this could close 2+ yards higher – and love the football angle as well.

Bet: Drake Maye Over 22.5 rushing yards (-115)

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (-3, 44)

BetMGM betting splits: 57% of bets, 52% of money on Commanders -3

Fiddle: Pete Carroll followed up the Week 2 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers saying Ashton Jeanty needs to get more work. Carroll said, “He’s breaking into the NFL, figuring it out, and running well. We just need to get him more carries… eight or nine more snaps to get him around 20 would be perfect.”

According to the very unofficial Coach Speak Index, which tracks what coaches have said on record and how it translates to subsequent results, Carroll ranks above average in trustworthiness, specifically when it comes to workload and usage comments. The Raiders are also going up against the Commanders, who probably will be led by backup QB Marcus Mariota, increasing the possible time of possession and run script opportunities for Jeanty. Strong play on over 14.5 rushing yards for Jeanty, playable to 16.5 (+100).

Bet: Ashton Jeanty Over 14.5 rush attempts (-135)

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 44)

BetMGM betting splits: 70% of bets, 62% of money on Texans +1.5

Craig: Houston has owned Jacksonville for nearly a decade, winning eight of the last 10 meetings outright. C.J. Stroud hasn’t faced an easy schedule so far – tough Rams and Bucs defenses have slowed him down – but this matchup is much friendlier. Stroud has been efficient and mistake-free against the Jaguars in his career, averaging nearly 293 yards and close to two touchdowns per game. Houston’s defense has also been dominant up front, leading the NFL in pass-rush win rate (57%) through two weeks.

By teasing the Texans up over a touchdown, bettors get a strong edge on a team that historically matches up well against its division rival.

Bet: Texans +8 in two-team teaser with Patriots +8

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 46)

BetMGM betting splits: 62% of bets, 54% of money on Chargers -3

Fiddle: So far this season, the Chargers lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) — an advanced analytics stat that grades passing volume in running situations. However, the two-week small sample size is worth fading the market reflecting this into the pricing.

The Chargers played the Chiefs (who have a dominant run defense) and the Raiders (whose best player is a defensive lineman who forced a fumble last week). The Broncos game should feature a more run-heavy approach on both sides of the ball. Also, Quentin Johnston expects to get covered by reigning defensive player of the year Patrick Surtain quite a bit in this game because he will be the X receiver. Despite Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen being high usage WRs for the Broncos, neither line up frequently in the X role, and thus are less likely to be shadow covered by Surtain.

Bet: Quentin Johnston Under 48.5 receiving yards (-118)

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 45.5) at New York Giants

BetMGM betting splits: 67% of bets, 72% of money on Chiefs -6.5

Feng: Kansas City is off to an 0-2 start. The Chiefs deserved to lose to the Los Angeles Chargers but should have beaten the Eagles last week. Travis Kelce turned a catchable touchdown pass into an interception returned for huge yardage in a play that flipped the game.

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The Giants looked awful in Week 1 against Washington. Then in the most unexpected way, the offense blew up for 37 points in Week 2 against Dallas.

If Kansas City’s offense had blown up last week and the Giants had blown a close game, I wouldn’t be surprised if the market would have Kansas City -7.5 here. My member model has Kansas City by 7.3 points, and there is value in Kansas City -5.5, -6 where you can find it.