Value of Things: Roses and Thorns

We’ve come to week two in the NFL season. The Houston Texans will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the bright lights of Monday Night Football. What kind of a game are we likely to see? The prognosticators have picked the Texans by a little less than a field goal. Let’s see what they are basing this on. As you saw last week, we start by looking at the top five players for each team based on Pro Football Focus. This time around, we have a week’s worth of numbers to base it on.

Additionally, we have the overall team rankings on offense and defense. Looking at both of those numbers can tell us how each team will attack the other on Monday night. Obviously, we don’t know how successful they will be. One game is not a lot to go on. That’s part of the fun of the early going. We have no idea what is a growing trend and what is simply a one off.

Clearly, the strength of the Bucs after week one is the defense. In particular, three of their top five players are in their secondary. That probably doesn’t mean good things for the Houston Texans’ passing game. Baker Mayfield was surprisingly lowly rated, but their passing game had better player grades than their running game. So, that off the bat should tell us something.

Like the Bucs, the strength of the Texans in week one was clearly their defense. Will Anderson is likely a defensive player of the year candidate and Danielle Hunter is a potential Hall of Famer in the making. They are clearly the strength of the defense. In the interim, it would seem like betting the under on a 42.5 over/under would seem to be a good bet.

The Bucs offense ranks 24th in total yards after week one. Believe it or not, that actually makes them one of the few offenses worse than the Texans after week one. They ranked 22nd in passing yards and 17th in rushing yards. So, I suppose the strength of their team could be in the running game, but it is hard to say at this point without knowing who the Atlanta Falcons are. Based purely on pedigree, it would seem logical to assume that the Bucs are more likely to attack the Texans through the air.

Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter did not fare well on Sunday according to PFF, but they don’t have to take on the same receiving core as the Los Angeles Rams. Mike Evans is a Hall of Fame wide receiver in waiting, but outside of that the Bucs don’t have a legitimate second target with Chris Godwn on the shelf. Emeka Egbuks will have to come up big again for them to move the ball successfully against the Texans. He had a very good week one, so there is hope there.

The Texans were 23rd in total yards. I suppose that is not awful in the grand scheme of things, but they are 30th in points scored. They were 24th in passing yards and 13th in rushing yards. When you are struggling with keeping your quarterback upright you focus on the running game. Nick Chubb was solid enough in his 13 carries, so it might be a good bet for him to get a heavier load. The question will be who is getting the bulk of the other carries. Dameon Pierce didn’t look good and Dare Ogunbowale shouldn’t be on the field as an offensive player. That leaves Woody Marks.

The passing game simply has to improve, but with the Bucs secondary that might be a tall order. The Texans will have to be create to get Nico Collins targets because defenses are clearly keying in on him. They are betting they don’t have enough in the other wide receivers to hurt them. Based on week one, that seems to be a pretty good bet.

This seems pretty simple and I don’t even have to look at the rankings. The key to beating the Texans has been the same for over the past year. If you are able to control the running game enough and key on Nico Collins then the Texans don’t have another way to beat you. A lot of that depends on the availability of Christian Kirk. If Kirk is available he might be enough of a threat to make the Bucs nervous, but otherwise it could be another long day if they are able to shut down the running game.

The only thing the Texans defense did not do effectively in week one was turn over the Rams. Yes, they got a turnover late, but they didn’t give the offense any short fields. Anderson and Hunter will be the key there. If they can force Mayfield into some bad throws or get a sack, fumble or two and that could be enough to win. The keys are similar. Control the running game and make them one-dimensional.

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