U.S. Science Cuts in Antarctica May Embolden China and Russia

Milan is about 10,000 miles, as the albatross flies, from McMurdo Station, the United States’ main outpost in Antarctica. But from late June to early July, representatives of 58 nations gathered in the Italian fashion capital for discussions about the remote continent’s present and future.

Difficult questions hung over the meeting: Will the southernmost continent remain a place for science and peace? Or will it become another object of territorial competition among great powers?

Antarctica is governed by the Antarctic Treaty, in force since 1961, stipulating that it is a refuge for peace and science, with military activity prohibited, and the environment protected. The document promotes international collaboration and lays aside the territorial claims of seven countries, which have all agreed not to act on their claimed ownership.

Ever since the treaty was signed, conflict has stayed farther north. “It was known as Antarctic exceptionalism,” said Jeffrey McGee, a law professor and Antarctic Treaty expert at the University of Tasmania.

Recently, though, that precedent has started to face strain. The world, Dr. McGee said, is turbulent, and its big players — the United States, Russia, China — are also the big players near the South Pole. “We’d be a little bit naïve to think that this isn’t going to affect the Antarctic Treaty system and the Antarctic region,” he added, referring to the dynamics that shape the rest of the world coming to Antarctica.

China and Russia are working on expansions to their own scientific facilities in Antarctica and some experts suspect the countries’ infrastructure could have nonpeaceful uses. And a committee of the British House of Commons has questioned the purpose of Russian seismic surveys, suggesting they represented potential oil prospecting, rather than scientific exploration. (China and Russia’s treaty representatives did not reply to emailed requests for comment).