Tigers stem historic free fall with AL Central-tying win over Guardians: What's next for MLB's wildest division race?

When remembering this week's three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians, the Detroit Tigers will at least be able to say "It could have been worse."

The Tigers defeated the Guardians 4-2 on Thursday to salvage the series and stem a free fall that has seen them go from runaway leaders of the AL Central to desperately trying to hold onto a playoff spot. The win snaps an eight-game losing streak and moves Detroit back into a tie atop the division with the Guardians, who hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

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If the Guardians manage to win the division, they will have completed the largest such comeback in the history of baseball. The current record-holder for largest division or league deficit overcome is the 1914 Boston Braves, who erased a 15-game deficit to win the American League.

The Tigers had previously lost 11 of their past 12 games, while the Guardians had won 17 of 19 in one of the most unlikely reversals baseball has ever seen. It took many hands to get that win.

Jahmai Jones and Wenceel Pérez both homered in the first inning to spot their team an early lead, followed by an RBI single from Javier Báez in the second inning and another homer from Riley Greene in the fourth inning.

On the other side of the ball, Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton lasted only 3 2/3 innings, with the bullpen coming in for more than five innings of one-run ball.

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Had the Tigers lost Thursday, they would have been effectively three games back and needed both a sweep this weekend and the Guardians to get swept this weekend. They now have a little breathing room, though it's still a position no one could have imagined for them when they held the best record in baseball in July.

Who holds the Tigers-Guardians tiebreaker?

The Guardians already had the tiebreaker clinched by Thursday. They entered this series needing only one win to secure the season series against Detroit and got it with a 5-2 win in the opener on Tuesday.

While tied division races used to go to a Game 163 at the end of the season, MLB did away with those in 2022 when it expanded the playoff field to 12 teams. If the Tigers and Guardians are tied at the end of the season, Cleveland will win the Central, meaning Detroit is still essentially one game back from a division title.

Whom do the Tigers play next?

After the red-hot Guardians, the Tigers will end their season against another likely playoff team in the Boston Red Sox this weekend.

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The Red Sox currently hold the second wild-card spot and will still likely be playing to maintain their playoff standing. They are currently on track to face either the New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays — whoever loses the division — in the wild-card round and would get the winner of the Guardians-Tigers race if they fall to the third spot.

The Tigers swept the Red Sox in May, meaning a single Detroit win would secure the tiebreaker. These will both be teams with something to play for.

Whom do the Guardians play next?

Unlike the Tigers, the Guardians are getting as friendly a season finale as they come.

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The Texas Rangers were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Wednesday and have lost eight straight. In addition to having nothing to play for, their top five players by Baseball Reference's version of WAR — Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien and Josh Smith — have all been shut down for the season.

Cleveland won't even get Texas' top remaining pitcher in Jacob deGrom, as the two-time Cy Young winner pitched Wednesday. Instead, the Rangers are on track to start Jack Leiter, Merrill Kelly and Patrick Corbin.

Despite the loss Thursday, Cleveland is still well-positioned to finish off its historic comeback. The beauty of baseball is that no one should bet on it being that easy.