Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 4 Predictions : Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 11

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Preview

It’s Sunday, May 11, and the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) and Denver Nuggets (50-32) are all set to square off from Ball Arena in Denver.

To the surprise of many, the Nuggets have a 2-1 series lead over the Thunder. It was another amazing fourth quarter from the Nuggets, and a dominating overtime period saw them take game three of the series.

In game three, they held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 18 points.

The Thunder are currently 32-8 on the road with a point differential of 13, while the Nuggets have a 4-6 record in their last ten games at home.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Thunder vs. Nuggets live today

• Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025
• Time: 3:30PM EST
• Site: Ball Arena
• City: Denver, CO
• Network/Streaming: ABC, ESPN2

Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day NBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.

Game odds for Thunder vs. Nuggets

The latest odds as of Sunday:

• Odds: Thunder (-245), Nuggets (+199)
• Spread: Thunder -6.5
• Over/Under: 227 points

That gives the Thunder an implied team point total of 115.81, and the Nuggets 112.41.

Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports’ Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!

Expert picks & predictions for Sunday’s Thunder vs. Nuggets game

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Thunder & Nuggets game:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the Denver Nuggets on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Denver Nuggets at +6.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the under on the Game Total of 227.

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!

Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Thunder vs. Nuggets on Sunday

• The Nuggets have won 5 of their last 6 games at home
• The Over is 4-1 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games
• The Thunder have gone 26-17 on the road against the spread this season

The Nuggets have won 5 of their last 6 games at home

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)