The UFC 317 and 319 title fights have big implications for the future

Tuesday's news that two highly anticipated title fights are officially on the UFC schedule for summer answered some glaring questions, but it created others. We now know that former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, who vacated his title last month, will compete for the lightweight belt against former champion Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 in Las Vegas on June 28. That means Islam Makhachev, the current pound-for-pound king, will vacate his lightweight belt to move up to welterweight, where he will eventually challenge newly crowned champ Jack Della Maddalena.

The summer pay-per-view slate will conclude with UFC 319 in Chicago on Aug. 16 with another long-awaited matchup: champion Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev for middleweight supremacy. Chimaev is undefeated in his MMA career but hasn't stepped into the Octagon since October 2024. Between them, Chimaev and Du Plessis have beaten six former champions in their past six fights, so neither is a stranger to a moment in the spotlight.

ESPN's Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim answer some questions that need to be addressed, now that these fights are official. Then betting expert Ian Parker gives his early advice for the main events.

What does Topuria's immediate title fight opportunity say about him and the rest of the lightweight division?

It says far more about him than the rest of the division. Lightweight, as usual, is very strong. Arman Tsarukyan's stock took a hit when he withdrew from a title fight at UFC 311 in January with a back injury, but that doesn't change how impressive he's been in competition. Justin Gaethje's résumé is strong enough that he could fight for a belt right now. There is nothing wrong with this division, quite the opposite. Topuria is getting an immediate crack at the title because of what he represents in MMA right now. He is ESPN's No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world and a bona fide superstar. Topuria is the most interesting man in the sport, and even though Makhachev is more proven at this point, Topuria's stardom could eclipse Makhachev's by the end of the year, depending how things go. -- Okamoto

Is this Oliveira's last chance to regain the UFC championship?

Probably, but never say never. This is not Oliveira's first visit to the crossroads.

His championship journey appeared to have reached a dead end in 2022, when he was stripped of the lightweight title after missing weight before a UFC 274 fight with Gaethje in May. He then got submitted by Makhachev in another shot at the belt four months later. Oliveira's career exuded finality, but a year and a half later, there he was in a title eliminator. He dropped that fight to Tsarukyan. After a single bounce-back victory over Michael Chandler at UFC 309 in November, here he is one more time. The aspiration for greatness never fades away.

But Oliveira is 35 years old now, and there's a line of lightweight contenders extending far behind him. Tsarukyan and Gaethje are waiting their turn, and Paddy Pimblett heads a queue of next-generation stars. Should Oliveira fall to Topuria, it's possible Oliveira could pick himself up and find his way into still another golden opportunity. But Oliveira cannot afford to approach this fight with anything short of urgency. He must seize this moment as though it's his final one. -- Wagenheim

Can Della Maddalena be a real challenge for Makhachev?

One million percent. All due respect to Makhachev, but let's also show some respect to Della Maddalena. Will Makhachev prove to be a real challenge to him? Della Maddalena just snapped Belal Muhammad's 11-fight winning streak at UFC 315, one of MMAs most impressive runs in recent memory. There's no doubt that Della Maddalena is a real challenge to Makhachev.

Makhachev is moving up to welterweight, where Della Maddalena is very comfortable. Della Maddalena's takedown defense was impressive at UFC 315. His boxing is a real issue for opponents, and we've seen Makhachev appear less-than-dominant against the boxing of Dustin Poirier and even Alexander Volkanovski, a natural featherweight. I'm not necessarily saying it's Della Maddalena's fight to lose against the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, but there are some real cards in his favor here. Let's acknowledge those, so that if Makhachev wins, we give the feat of outpointing Della Maddalena the credit it deserves. -- Okamoto

What can we expect to see when top middleweights Du Plessis and Chimaev meet at UFC 319?

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Dricus Du Plessis remains middleweight champ with sensational submission

Dricus Du Plessis submits Israel Adesanya with a rear-naked choke to remain UFC middleweight champion.

Maybe it's a cop-out to say we should expect the unexpected. But what else have these two produced in the UFC but surprises?

Du Plessis went into three of his most recent four fights as a betting underdog but won all of them, along with the five UFC fights that came before. He has an awkward way of fighting that doesn't look like a winning style -- until his hand is being raised.

Chimaev, by contrast, burst into the UFC looking like a champion impatient to be fitted for his belt. His first three wins in the Octagon, all quick finishes, came within a span of 65 days. That was five years ago, though, and Chimaev's express-train momentum has slowed to a chugga-chugga crawl as his activity has lessened. Yet he remains undefeated.

Chimaev's most recent two victories came against former UFC champions (Kamaru Usman and Robert Whittaker), and Du Plessis has conquered champs in his past four bouts (Whittaker, Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland twice). So this moment will not be too big for either man. With Chimaev being an explosive starter and Du Plessis endlessly resilient, I expect an early onslaught by the challenger and the champ playing the long game, gazing longingly toward the deep water, where he is comfortable swimming. -- Wagenheim

Parker's early bets for main events

Topuria to win inside the distance: Topuria likely will be the favorite here and rightfully so. He's undefeated, will have the wrestling advantage and has devastating knockout power against Oliviera, who has been dropped in many fights. If Topuria's line is anywhere south of -200, take him, and for a better line, take him to win inside the distance. As long as he can avoid Oliviera taking his back, I don't see how he loses this fight. '

Du Plessis to win by decision: The question for this middleweight championship fight, just like any Chimaev fight, is whether Du Plessis can get out of Round 1. That answer, in my view, should be yes. Du Plessis has the defensive wrestling and physical strength to fend off Chimaev in the early going then take him into deep waters to get it done in the championship rounds. Alternatively, it's always worth taking Chimaev to win any fight in Round 1, as five of his eight UFC victories have come via first-round stoppage. If that strategy fails, take the live line on Du Plessis, because he will use his cardio to get better as the fight goes on.