The S&P 500 Went for a Roller-Coaster Ride During Trump's First 100 Days in Office. What Can Investors Expect for the Next 100 Days?

Bram Berkowitz, The Motley Fool

Sun, May 4, 2025, 2:18 PM 5 min read

• The broad market's performance during Trump's first 100 days is the worst for any administration in over 50 years.

• Steep losses have given way to a recovery, but the major indexes are still down year to date.

• Tariffs, trade negotiations, and concerns over a recession or even stagflation are all in focus over Trump's next 100 days.

President Donald Trump promised to shake things up once he took office, and boy, did he. Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on goods from most countries in an attempt to transform decades of globalization that he believes has made global trade unfair for the U.S.

The extent of the tariffs in the initial April 2 announcement sent stocks plunging, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes entered bear market territory that month. Stocks then rebounded quickly once Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, so the administration could negotiate trade deals.

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Even with the rebound and a nine-day winning streak as of May 2, the S&P 500 still turned in its worst performance in a president's first 100 days in office since 1974, falling about 8%. It's been a roller-coaster ride for investors in the first months of Trump's second term, but what can they expect over the next 100 days?

The Trump administration is 24 days into its 90-day tariff pause, as of this writing. While the administration has hinted at trade talks with major trading partners like India and Japan, nothing is official. Additionally, tensions with China have escalated. Trump raised tariffs on many goods from the world's second-largest economy to a cumulative 145%. Meanwhile, China hit right back, slapping U.S. imports with 125% cumulative tariffs in return, and the country's leadership has showed no signs of backing down.

However, media outlets have recently reported that Chinese officials are evaluating the possibility of beginning trade talks with the U.S. after senior U.S. officials inquired "through relevant parties multiple times," a spokesperson for China's commerce secretary said in a statement. However, the statement also said the U.S. must remove all unilateral tariffs if they don't want to "further compromise mutual trust."

Reaching agreements with key trading partners including China is going to be absolutely paramount to keeping the stock market on solid footing. Many companies have warned about the consequences of what might happen if Trump ultimately reinstates his high tariff rates. The fallout could mean higher prices and layoffs, while many market strategists were predicting an imminent recession. All eyes will be on these trade negotiations, which will likely keep investors on their toes over the next 100 days as the markets continue to swing wildly based on news headlines.