2 hours ago 1

The Hunt For Red Soxtober!

As the Red Sox leak oil, slide around the track, and try to coast across the finish line before the surging Cleveland Guardians overtake them, it’s a good time to take inventory with just nine games remaining.

So, where do we stand? What do the contenders have left? Are there any odd wrinkles in play? And who has those pesky tiebreakers we often overlook all season until all of a sudden they really, really matter?

Let’s start with the current standings: (We’ll use “games +/-” in relation to the Red Sox both because Boston is the focal point of this analysis, and because they’re currently the team sitting on the playoff bubble.)

While the Red Sox have gone a pathetic 5-8 without Roman Anthony the last two weeks, the Guardians have been on fire. They’ve won 12 of their last 13 games and are rapidly becoming the most important scoreboard surveillance squad in all of New England. When the Sox beat them back on September 2nd, they were 8.5 games clear of Cleveland. Now, the gap is just 1.5 games.

Despite having a -23 run differential (compared to the Boston’s +102), and multiple pitchers on disciplinary paid leave as MLB investigates them in a gambling scandal, the Guardians are now firmly in the conversation for the final playoff spot. And as bad as the last two weeks have been, it could easily be even worse if things went slightly different in that game back on that September 2nd.

In an odd twist of fate, one of the most important wins of the year for the Sox might actually turn out to be the game where Roman Anthony strained his oblique. During that contest, the Sox built up a 5-1 lead with Anthony in there, but he had to leave after the 4th. The pitching staff then proceeded to cough up six runs in the sixth before the bats rallied back to win 11-7. If the Sox lose that game, not only does their current 1.5 game lead over the Guardians become a 0.5 game deficit, but it also would have flipped the tie breaker in Cleveland’s favor.

Since that night, the Guardians have won so much they’re now only 3.5 games behind Detroit for the AL Central division lead. They just swept the Tigers this week, and oh by the way, Cleveland and Detroit play each other three more times again next week.

On that note, let’s take a look at who everybody is playing for the final three series of the year:

Several things jump out here:

That Mariners vs. Astros series this weekend is massive. Not only will it determine who leads the AL West with a week to go, but it will also determine the tiebreak as the teams are 5-5 against each other to this point, so whoever takes two out of three here is basically two games up with seven to play. If either team sweeps, that division is pretty much wrapped up on Sunday night despite it being tied now. I have mixed feelings about wanting a sweep in either direction here. On one hand, it will inflict max damage on the loser and open up another team the Sox could finish ahead of in the standings, but it would also make the final week much easier for the AL West winner, and if the Sox do get in, that’s the team they’re overwhelmingly likely to play. I think I’d rather have them have to expend more resources down the stretch here, but it’s quiet messy either way.

On that note, the Yankees are overwhelmingly likely to get the first Wild Card spot now with both their position in the standings and their remaining schedule. In other words, you can just about kiss the idea of any games at Fenway during the Wild Card round goodbye. The Sox still have the tiebreaker over the Yankees, but that seems increasingly less likely to matter.

At this point, you actually want the Blue Jays to win this weekend while they play Kansas City. For one, it will prevent the Yankees from winning the division, but two, if they clinch faster, the Sox might catch a game or two next week in Toronto where the Jays have just clinched and they call off the dogs for 48 hours. It will be a cheap way to bag an extra win, but at this point, any win could be the difference between being in and out when all the cards are counted.

The swing potential with that Tigers vs. Guardians series next week is incredible! Let’s take the two extremes: If Cleveland plays well this weekend and then sweeps, they could be leading that division after trailing by 11 games as recently as September 4th. That would likely leave the Red Sox and Tigers facing off head to head for the final playoff spot at Fenway during the last series of the year. On the other hand, if the Tigers sweep the Guardians, they could clinch the division right in front of them in Cleveland. That extreme would not only do the Sox a massive favor in the standings, but it would also put Detroit in a situation where they may not care about the games at Fenway next weekend, and then all of a sudden the Sox have cushy path right at the very end against a Tigers team that doesn’t really care about game 160, 161, and 162.

Tie breakers

Teams the Sox have the tiebreak on:

Teams the Sox lose the tiebreak against:

Tigers* (The Sox could take the tiebreaker back from Detroit if and only if they sweep them in that last series of the year.)

Mariners* (As far as the Mariners go, it’s going to come down to division record, and they currently have a three game lead on the Sox here, so while it’s still mathematically possible this flips and they end up tied, just assume Seattle has this one.)

Pitching matchups

The good news for the Sox is Joe Ryan will be pitching for the them this weekend. Well, not really, but he’ll be pitching for the Twins, who the Sox need to beat the Guardians and help them out. Masterful gambit Mr. Breslow!

As far as the actual Sox starters go, here’s how it’s lining up:

So the starters for Tampa seem pretty set, but after that things get highly compelling.

The Sox could move Crochet up to the September 24th game on regular rest both to get him ahead of Bello in the order (which you want in the postseason) and to potentially line him up to pitch on short rest on September 28th if they need to win the last game of the season to get in. Either way, that scenario is kind of a disaster as you’d lose Crochet in the Wild Card round (which likely means curtains anyway), but it’s something they might have to do.

Cleveland’s quiet kryptonite?

If you’re looking for some sneaky good news, it’s that Cleveland is closing the season on a stretch where they play 30 games in 31 days including a double header in Minnesota on Saturday. So as hot as they’ve been of late, they’re expending a ton of resources to surge back into this race.

Teams that do this sometimes just hit a wall. Of the teams I’ve followed closely, the 2010 Rockies come to mind, who at the start of play on September 19th that year were 13-2 in their last 15 games and just one game back of the division lead. It felt like it was about to be 2007 all over again, and instead they blew a 6-1 lead in the game that day and closed the season with a 1-13 record in their final 14 games. Baseball is crazy!

The main point here is the bottom could still fall out for Cleveland as much as it doesn’t look that way right now, and if it does, the Sox could continue to play very uninspiring baseball and still get in. (This is what happens when MLB lets way too many teams into the postseason.)

Is there any help coming internally?

Unfortunately not in the form of Roman Anthony, but here’s the latest update on Wilyer Abreu:

Lastly, in a season defined by the Sox calling up exciting young players, they might still have one more in the pipeline. Luis Perales, who had Tommy John surgery in the first half of 2024, is now back on the mound in Worcester and throwing fireballs — and since the Sox had to add him to the 40-man roster last winter to protect him in the Rule 5 draft, he’s actually postseason eligible despite never throwing in a major league game.

Here he is on Wednesday mowing guys down:

Don’t be surprised if he end up in a Boston uniform before this is over.

Either way, the hunt for October is on!

0 Comments

Read Entire Article