Stanley Cup conference finals preview: Goalie confidence ratings, X factors for NHL's final four

The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs field is down to the final four. The Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers face off in a rematch of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, while the Western Conference finals are a return bout from 2024 between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers.

Which two teams will make it to the Stanley Cup Final? Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton are here with intel on all four teams, including goaltender confidence ratings, what we've learned so far about each team, X factors and more.

Dallas Stars

How they got here: Defeated Avalanche 4-3, defeated Jets 4-2

Goalie confidence rating: 9/10

Think about the number of teams that have had to shuffle through goaltenders this postseason -- whether because of injuries or inconsistencies. It's part of what makes Jake Oettinger so vital for the Stars.

No goalie has faced more shots, made more saves and logged more minutes than Oettinger during the 2025 playoffs. Oettinger has provided the Stars with a level of stability that has played a major role in why they've advanced to a third straight conference final. He has had several moments this postseason in which his value has been amplified. Maybe the strongest example of that would be the fact that the Stars are 3-0 in overtime, with two of those wins coming in series-clinching games.

What we've learned about the Stars so far

Other than that it was worth mortgaging the future to trade for and sign Mikko Rantanen, one of the best wingers in the game, to a long-term contract -- and then watch him become the front-runner to win the Conn Smythe?

It's the fact that the Stars have shown they are adaptable. They opened the first round with questions about getting past the Avalanche given that two of their best players, Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, were out injured. Even now as they're in the conference finals, the Stars have yet to receive consistent offensive contributions from certain players (see below), and their depth could be greatly tested against what might be the deepest team in the playoffs.

play

1:07

Thomas Harley sends Stars to West finals with OT winner

The Dallas Stars crowd goes wild as Thomas Harley's goal seals a 2-1 overtime win to clinch the series over the Winnipeg Jets.

X factor for the conference finals

Will it be the 81% -- or will the 19% make its mark? There's a reason for such a cryptic question, and it comes back to how scoring has worked for the Stars this postseason.

Five players have scored 26 of Dallas' 32 goals (i.e. 81% of them) entering the Western Conference finals: Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley, Wyatt Johnston and Mikael Granlund.

The remaining 19% have come from key players such as Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin. Those four have combined to score five goals this postseason, while Matt Duchene hasn't scored at all.

Keep in mind they are heading into a series against a defensive structure that shut out the Vegas Golden Knights for two straight games. Again, depth will matter.

Has the experience of the past two years prepared the Stars to take the next step?

A third straight conference finals appearance reaffirms that the Stars are in a championship window. But is this the year in which the Stars reach the Stanley Cup Final and possibly win it all?

The first of their three trips, in 2023, let them learn what it meant to win in overtime given they lost two games to the Golden Knights in the extra frame. Their second trip -- last season against the Oilers -- saw them struggle to find consistency against a team that could use the whole of its parts after falling into a 2-1 series hole.

This postseason has included winning multiple overtime games, finally winning the first game of a series, fending off an opponent trying to force a Game 7, managing without two of their best players and extending Peter DeBoer's Game 7 streak to 9-0. But will all of that be enough? -- Clark

Edmonton Oilers

How they got here: Defeated Kings 4-2, defeated Golden Knights 4-1

Goalie confidence rating: 8/10

Everything the Oilers' defensive structure accomplished in the regular season was met with the disconnect of inconsistent goaltending. It appeared to be an issue through the first two games of the playoffs, which is why Kris Knoblauch had Calvin Pickard replace Stuart Skinner en route to beating the Kings in the opening round.

But when Pickard sustained an injury, Skinner returned ... and shut out the Golden Knights for the final two games of the second round. For all of the criticism Skinner has faced -- and continues to face -- he has the Oilers four wins away from a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance. But above all, whether it be Pickard or Skinner, the Oilers now have the defensive cohesion that has eluded them at times, which is helpful to any netminder.

What we've learned about the Oilers so far

That they might be the best and deepest team in the playoffs. There's no denying the advantage they have with Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who are first and second on the team in points this postseason. But this current iteration of the Oilers continues to prove how they are more than just their generational superstars.

Waiver pickup Kasperi Kapanen went from being a healthy scratch at the outset of the postseason to scoring a second-round series-clinching goal. Corey Perry has had one of the strongest playoffs by a player in their age-39 season. More than a dozen forwards have scored at least one goal.

The Oilers once again went through goalie issues, and found solutions on multiple occasions. In total, they have nine players who have scored more than three goals, all while finding defensive cohesion at a time when Mattias Ekholm has been out of the lineup.

play

0:53

Oilers call series after Kasperi Kapanen scores OT winner

Kasperi Kapanen somehow gets his stick on the puck last on a scramble in overtime as the Oilers clinch the series vs. the Golden Knights.

X factor for the conference finals

Special teams. The Oilers had the best penalty kill in the 2024 playoffs, at 94%, which is one of the best rates in Stanley Cup playoff history. Couple that with what was the second-best power play, and it's what made the Oilers a threat in every situation last spring.

This postseason, however, has been different. On the whole, their power play is still succeeding at a rate of 25%, which is good enough for sixth among all 16 playoff teams. Their penalty kill is 14th, at 66.7% -- by far the worst of the remaining four teams.

Can they make the necessary adjustments? They had the worst power play of any team in the second round, with a 9.1% success rate on the extra-skater advantage, while their PK was tied for the second-lowest mark of the eight teams, at 76.9%.

Is the series win over the Golden Knights a sign of things to come?

The Oilers earned a return to the conference finals by tapping into every part of their roster. But one of the byproducts of using everyone is how they've reduced opponents into facing a depth crisis of their own.

The Golden Knights had 11 players finish with more than 10 goals in the regular season, while 11 players had more than 30 points. Against the Oilers, however, star center Jack Eichel was held without a goal, while the trio of Ivan Barbashev, Tomas Hertl and Brett Howden went from scoring a combined 78 goals in the regular season to scoring zero against Edmonton. Even the Golden Knights' defensemen went from having 35 goals in the regular season to just one goal in the playoffs.

Knowing they have a more than capable blueprint, how will the Oilers use what they did in the second round against what has been a top-heavy Stars team to this point? -- Clark

Carolina Hurricanes

How they got here: Defeated Devils 4-1, defeated Capitals 4-1

Goalie confidence rating: 9.5/10

Frederik Andersen is having an eye-popping playoff run. His absurd numbers -- a .937 save percentage and 1.36 goals-against average -- lead the entire postseason field of goaltenders, as he has allowed just 12 goals over nine games. And it's not like Andersen hasn't been challenged. He turned aside 30 of 31 high-danger chances from Washington in Carolina's second-round series, and gave up just four even-strength goals in five games.

Andersen also paces all playoff goalies in high-danger saves, while boasting the best goal differential (+15) as well. Basically, if there's a category to measure goaltending greatness, Andersen is head of the class.

Carolina's only real concern when it comes to Andersen is availability -- he did miss time in the first round against New Jersey with an injury. Andersen's lengthy injury history has to be in the back of the Hurricanes' minds, but when Andersen is good to go, there's not a goaltender playing better than he is right now.

What we've learned about the Hurricanes so far

The Hurricanes are like midsummer humidity -- absolutely smothering. Carolina's pressure is a full-team effort, leaving little open ice for any opponent to operate. The Canes have allowed the second-fewest shots on net this postseason (just 24 per game) thanks in large part to the way they have controlled play in the offensive zone and generated an excellent cycle game that has worn down the competition.

The Hurricanes are so good using their sticks to break up plays and rush opportunities, making it hard to even gain their zone. And a stout defense -- led by Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns -- doesn't let anyone linger for long in Carolina's end.

Add to that an offensive attack led by Andrei Svechnikov's eight goals in 10 games -- not to mention Andersen's outstanding performance so far -- and it's no wonder the Hurricanes were first to punch their ticket back to the Eastern Conference finals.

play

0:56

Andrei Svechnikov puts Canes on the brink with late goal

Andrei Svechnikov lights the lamp to give the Hurricanes a lead late in the third period.

X factor for the conference finals

Rod Brind'Amour. Carolina's longtime coach brought his team to this precipice just two years ago -- and they were swept away in four games. Now he's facing the challenge of matching wits with another Stanley Cup-winning bench boss, Florida's Paul Maurice, and it's critical that Brind'Amour bring his A game.

The Hurricanes have stuck with him for a reason, and Brind'Amour has guided Carolina through a sensational 10 games to date this postseason. This is when the real work starts, though. Whether it's deploying the right matchups, making adjustments on the fly or simply keeping the pulse of his team in check, Brind'Amour has to make this round his best coaching job yet. And the experience he has with this group in particular is critical.

The Hurricanes have grown since that last conference finals loss. Given this second opportunity in three years to potentially push through to a Stanley Cup Final, Brind'Amour's leadership is more valuable than ever in ensuring the Hurricanes stick to their game to finally break through.

Does it matter that Carolina hasn't exactly faced adversity yet in the postseason?

The Hurricanes were dominant in both series to date. Neither of their losses were particularly egregious. Now they're up against an opponent that has had to claw its way back into the fight a time or two.

Florida has needed to cultivate some desperation in a way Carolina hasn't, and that can be an asset as the stakes climb higher. How will the Hurricanes respond if things don't immediately go their way?

We've seen it before, where teams cruise through a round (or two) and then crumble against a more urgent opponent that has gained confidence through resiliency. If the Hurricanes wind up in their own heads, that could spell trouble for a team that has made quick work of its playoff assignments to this point. -- Shilton

Florida Panthers

How they got here: Defeated Lightning 4-1, defeated Maple Leafs 4-3

Goalie confidence rating: 8.5/10

Sergei Bobrovsky hasn't had a flawless postseason -- but he does come through in the clutch. That's what Florida needed most from its No. 1 netminder to reach a third straight Eastern Conference finals.

Bobrovsky especially delivered in the Panthers' second-round series against Toronto. He recovered from a mediocre start through the first three games -- allowing 13 total goals -- to give up just four goals in Games 4-7 for a .957% SV% and 1.01 GAA.

That's the momentum Bobrovsky is taking into this latest clash with Carolina, where he'll be going toe-to-toe with perhaps this postseason's best goaltender in Frederik Andersen. Bobrovsky shouldn't be intimidated by the matchup, though. He has something Andersen doesn't: Cup-winning experience. Bobrovsky has carried his club through to consecutive Cup Finals and knows how to weather the highs and lows of a long run like this. There's nothing the Hurricanes can throw at Bobrovsky that should rattle him.

What we've learned about the Panthers so far

The Panthers are the definition of killer instinct. It's ingrained in their game. Their ability to make adjustments that expose an opponent's weakness without sacrificing their own strengths is impressive.

So is Florida's depth. The Panthers have had 17 goal scorers in the postseason, including seven defensemen who have combined for 11 tallies. Florida is fourth overall in the postseason field offensively (averaging 3.75 goals per game) but its defensive effort and penalty kill have perhaps outshined the work upfront.

The Panthers have been the second-stingiest team in the playoffs (after, naturally, their next foe in Carolina) with just 2.42 goals against per game, they've given up the second-fewest shots (23.8 per game) and they have the second-best penalty kill (89.5%).

Florida has a resilience built from its success over the past two seasons that comes through in the team's confidence. Regardless of the situation -- leading, tied or trailing -- the Panthers are calm and collected. The balance they've created at both ends of the ice makes Florida tough to crack, and the Panthers don't offer up opportunities freely. It's a battle-tested group that knows when and how to strike.

play

2:09

Panthers throttle Maple Leafs in Game 7 to advance to ECF

The Panthers dash the Maple Leafs' hopes in Game 7, scoring six goals in two periods to advance to play the Hurricanes.

X factor for the conference finals

The Panthers have benefitted from that aforementioned depth to get this far -- but Florida's stars were eerily quiet in the second round. That needs to change against Carolina.

Matthew Tkachuk had zero goals and four assists against the Leafs, Aleksander Barkov nabbed two goals and five points, while Sam Reinhart has 41 shots in the postseason but just four goals through 12 games. It feels like there could be a breakout performance coming from somewhere.

The Panthers will have to work for every inch of open ice when the Hurricanes deploy their suffocating defense, but the Panthers do have an edge over the competition in terms of elite, top-end scoring talent. But it's those exact skaters who have to show up for Florida now, in order to throw an elite goaltender like Andersen off his game.

The Panthers do an excellent job getting bodies in front of the net and creating shooting lanes. This is the series where they'll most need to take advantage of those windows -- and see certain skaters put their mark on this postseason push with some key contributions to the scoresheet.

Will Florida have to beat Carolina at its own game?

The Hurricanes and Panthers are essentially 1-2 in every defensive category this postseason, and their special teams are on par. Florida has the edge offensively, but Carolina has enjoyed timely scoring in a big way -- think Andrei Svechnikov's game-winning goal in the final two minutes of regulation to send Washington packing in the second round -- and that can be a weapon too.

The Panthers have an innate ability to adapt when the circumstances dictate it. That's going to be imperative here. The Panthers pounded Carolina in a four-game sweep during their meeting in the conference finals two years ago. That's not something the Hurricanes can easily forget, and Florida can lean on that too in figuring out how to dismantle a Carolina team that has made quick work of its first two challengers in these playoffs.

It's on Florida to crack the code against a team that does many of the same things the Panthers do really, really well. -- Shilton