Russia’s Strategy Against the West: Escalate Slowly and See if It Responds

An American factory in western Ukraine. Two European diplomatic compounds and a key Ukrainian government building in Kyiv. And now Poland.

Over a roughly three-week period, Russian drones and missiles have struck sites of increasing sensitivity for Ukraine and its Western allies, culminating in the volley of Russian drones that buzzed early Wednesday over Poland, a NATO country.

For decades, American and European military planners feared something else: a bolt-from-the-blue assault, like an all-out nuclear strike, from the Soviet Union or Russia. But in its war on Ukraine, Russia has walked over a Western red line gradually, gauging responses as it goes, blunting any pushback by escalating slowly and maintaining some level of deniability, according to Ukrainian officials and analysts.

The drones that flew into Poland prompted NATO to send warplanes to shoot them down, in the first direct engagement of the alliance’s troops with Russian weaponry since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. But none of the previous Russian attacks in recent weeks led to more than strongly worded statements from European or U.S. officials, and it was unclear if Russia would pay any real price for its incursion into Poland.