Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Rubrik, Inc. on Deep Value Returns’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RBRK. Rubrik, Inc.'s share was trading at $81.46 as of September 23rd. RBRK’s trailing P/E was 24.66 according to Yahoo Finance.

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Rubrik (RBRK) has returned to the author's portfolio after previously being sold at $102, as the current setup presents a compelling opportunity despite near-term investor skepticism. The company is facing a narrative challenge as its revenue growth rates appear to be decelerating, which has pressured the stock multiple and created a period of investor doubt.

This narrative of declining growth in the future has caused the stock to trade at a compressed valuation, yet the underlying fundamentals remain strong, with RBRK continuing to deliver approximately 25% year-over-year revenue growth. The situation presents a positively skewed risk-reward dynamic, as the market has not yet fully priced in the company’s stable growth trajectory. Paying 62x forward free cash flow for RBRK is justified by its robust revenue performance, offering investors a path to meaningful upside.

By early 2027, the stock has the potential to reach $120 per share if the company continues executing on its growth strategy. The investment case is reinforced by a disciplined focus on quality over short-term sentiment swings, acknowledging that market volatility and doubters are inherent but can create attractive entry points. This approach emphasizes clarity of purpose: the goal is to deliver outperformance, not to merely feel smart, and positions like RBRK exemplify this philosophy.

While near-term fluctuations are expected, the combination of durable growth, a temporarily compressed multiple, and a strategic market narrative positions RBRK as a high-conviction investment with significant upside potential for patient investors who understand the long-term thesis. The current environment, marked by mispriced sentiment and strong fundamentals, sets the stage for meaningful returns as confidence in the company’s growth solidifies.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) by ElectSamsepi0l in December 2024, which highlighted its leadership in cloud-integrated backup and recovery, strategic cybersecurity partnerships, and rising ARR. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 51.8% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as RBRK maintains strong fundamentals. Deep Value Returns shares a similar perspective but emphasizes the current risk-reward setup and long-term upside.