Putin’s Message to Ukraine, Europe and Trump: I Won’t Back Down

On Sunday, Russia attacked Ukraine with its largest missile and drone barrage of the war. Then, on Wednesday, tensions shot up with the West, as numerous Russian drones flew over Poland in a striking aerial incursion into a NATO country.

The assaults suggested a new level of aggression by Russia, more than three years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But to anyone who was listening to President Vladimir V. Putin last week, they also fit into a broader messaging campaign.

After staying largely silent on Ukraine in the weeks after his Aug. 15 summit with President Trump, the Russian leader returned to the subject as he spent hours before the cameras during his trip this month to China and Russia’s Far East. His comments there, taken together with escalating Russia’s airstrikes, looked like a fresh attempt to demonstrate that Russia is determined to dictate the terms for any end to the war.

To Ukraine, Mr. Putin’s message is that he is convinced that he has the upper hand militarily. To Kyiv’s allies in Europe, Mr. Putin’s warning is that they face danger if they follow through on their plans to eventually deploy troops to Ukraine. To Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin is signaling that he will not compromise on his core demands even as he claims that Russia is still ready to make a deal.

“I think there’s a certain light at the end of the tunnel,” Mr. Putin said last week in a nearly hourlong news conference in Beijing. “If not, then we’ll have to solve all the tasks before us by military means.”

Here’s a breakdown of Mr. Putin’s recent comments and how to read them in light of his escalation against Ukraine and his threatening actions toward the West.