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OTB Staff Picks: Rutgers vs Minnesota

After suffering their first loss of the season, 38-28 to Iowa, Rutgers will look to bounce back this week as they travel to Minneapolis to take on Minnesota. As always, the staff here at On The Banks will give their score predictions and provide context as to why they think the game will go that way.

Andrew Rice: After Rutgers’ loss to Iowa, this game has been elevated to must-win status if Rutgers hopes to make a bowl game.

With that in mind, both teams stack up against each other very well. The Golden Gophers’ offense hasn’t been very good to start the year; however, they do have a strong running game that will only get stronger with the return of Darius Taylor for this game. Rutgers’ defense has struggled to stop the run all year, and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue here.

On the flip side, judging on the way they played Cal, Rutgers’ offense has a great chance to put up points in bunches against the Gophers. Minnesota surrendered three touchdowns through the air to a team that couldn’t muster up a single point against San Diego State. Rutgers’ offense, particularly the passing game, has been electric so far this year, so they should be able to exploit this.

Rutgers is going to have to pile up points in every game this season to have a chance at winning. With the way the Rutgers run defense is, it is hard to imagine that Minnesota won’t score a lot as well. In this scenario, I am tempted to go with the offense that has shown more throughout the season so far.

Rutgers 35, Minnesota 31

Arnav Sarkar: The Gophers statistically have the top defense in America (right now), but that to me is suspect because of who they have played. After not allowing points against Northwestern State and holding Buffalo to 10 in the season opener, Minnesota struggled against Cal’s pass-happy offense to the tune of 27 points. Cal then scored a goose egg against San Diego State. Although every game takes on a life of its own, and the transitive property likely will not apply here, Athan Kaliakmanis should be able to move the ball against his former team, especially with the receiving trio of Ian Strong, KJ Duff, and DT Sheffield.

On the other side of the ball, the defense has not shown much improvement, either in the run or the pass. I expect a high-scoring game, with Drake Lindsey and his playmakers, including Le’Meke Brockington, Darius Taylor, and Fame Ijeboi to get going. This game will be a shootout, but the defense did show some life in the second half, and I think the pass rush finally gets going, causing Drake Lindsey to make a critical mistake that gives the football back to the Scarlet Knights. This time, Rutgers holds on to the ball and runs down the clock, much like in the opener against Ohio. Rutgers makes their statement on the road and improves to 4-1 on the season, winning one of the more crucial games on the schedule for bowl eligibility purposes.

Rutgers 34, Minnesota 27

John Catapano: I wasn’t surprised that RU lost to Iowa last Friday night. After all, I had predicted a loss. What surprised me was RU giving up 13 points on special teams. Obviously, you can’t win Big Ten games with that lack of execution.

PJ Fleck and the Gophers enter this “awkward family holiday get together” against Kirk, Robb, and the Kaliakmanis brothers off a bye week. Similar to Iowa, the Gophers’ defense has been very stout, allowing 41 rushing and 136 passing yards per game through three games against Buffalo, FCS Northwestern State, and Cal. The Golden Bears only managed 61 yards rushing against Minnesota. Still, their heralded freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, passed for 279 yards and 3 TDs with no interceptions in the Bears’ 27-14 victory two weeks ago. A week later, Cal’s offense was shut out by San Diego State, 34-0, whose lone win was over FCS Stony Brook.

The transitive property rarely applies in sports, but if Rutgers is going to achieve the same level of success as Cal on offense, it will likely be through the air. Minnesota DC Danny Collins likely watched Iowa’s adjustments dialing up the blitz in the second half against the Knights’ high-flying offense and will likely bring pressure early. Of course, OC Ciarrocca knows that’s coming as well in what should be another very interesting chess match between the Rutgers offense vs. the opponent’s defense.

On the other side of the ball, I would be shocked if Minnesota’s goal was anything other than running the ball down the Knights’ throat. RU hasn’t proven they can stop the run, seal the edge, and contain the quarterback through the first four games. That’s likely not going to change Saturday. Even if star running back Darius Taylor is still out with his hamstring injury, Fame Ijeboi, A.J. Turner, and Cam Davis are more than capable in a very deep Gophers running back room.

I can see this game turning into a wild one, but my gut tells me RU won’t crap the bed on special teams two weeks in a row, and Kirk will have a successful plan to deal with the blitzing, allowing Athan to drive the ball down the field to the terrific trio of Ian Strong, KJ Duff, and DT Sheffield. This will be another nail-biter, but I see a positive outcome.