No. 16 Notre Dame vs. NC State prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player overviews, trends, and stats

Week 7 of the college football season features the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-2) traveling to South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (3-2).

Losers of two straight to open the season, the Irish appear to have their house back in order following three straight dominant performances resulting in wins over Purdue, Arkansas, and last week over Boise State. How dominant? Marcus Freeman’s troops outscored their opponents 140-50 in those three games. As a result, Notre Dame has climbed back to No. 16 in the national polls and fans of the Irish believe once again a playoff berth is back on the table for consideration…as they should. The Wolfpack may be the most difficult game the Irish have remaining on their schedule.

Being the most difficult team remaining on the schedule does not mean the Wolfpack should be feared. That said, NC State looked poised for a good season following season-opening wins over East Carolina and Virginia, but three weeks ago were ripped by Duke, 45-33, and two weeks ago lost 23-21 to a bad Virginia Tech team. Which version of the Wolfpack will Notre Dame see Saturday? Even if it is the early-season version, the Irish will dress the more talented and deeper team.

Lets take a deeper dive into this week’s matchup between the Wolfpack and the Fighting Irish.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch Notre Dame vs. NC State

• Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025
• Time: 3:30PM Eastern
• Site: Notre Dame Stadium
• City: South Bend, IN
• TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock

Game Odds for Notre Dame vs. NC State

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: NC State Wolfpack (+1000), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1800)
• Spread: Notre Dame -22.5 (-110)
• Total: 60.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2025 Record: 3-2
Offense Ranking: 3
Defense Ranking: 28
Strength of Schedule: 40

Notre Dame enters the second half of the 2025 season at 3–2 with a No. 8 SP+ ranking, powered by a Top 5 offense (No. 3 SP+) that averages 7.26 yards per play and ranks 6th nationally in Total QBR (86.8). Quarterback play has been electric behind CJ Carr, who is boasting the 5th-best ANY/A (13.5) and 4th-highest rate of completions going for 20+ yards (28.4%), supported by a slot-heavy passing game (46.8% of receptions) and a rush attack averaging 5.5 yards per carry. However, the defense has lagged behind, ranking just 28th in SP+ and struggling particularly against the pass—allowing 6.6 yards per dropback (90th), a 117th-ranked 19.8% explosive pass rate, and a 132nd-place 9.2 YPA against zone coverage. With eight games remaining—all winnable by SP+ projections—Notre Dame has a 73% chance to finish with at least 9 wins, though defensive improvement is key to reaching their 25.5% College Football Playoff probability.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense

Notre Dame’s offense in 2025 is one of the most potent units in the country, ranking 3rd in SP+ and averaging 7.26 yards per play (12th nationally). The Irish boast elite production in the passing game with a 51.4% success rate (14th), 13.5 ANY/A (5th), and an exceptional 28.4% of completions going for 20+ yards (4th). They are deadly in scoring position, ranking Top 10 in red zone TD rate (81.0%) and points per scoring opportunity (5.59), while also converting standard downs at a 54.0% success rate (24th). ND is displaying occasional inefficiencies on fourth down (36.4% conversion rate, 119th), and with a leaky offensive line that is allowing a dismal 4.0% pressure rate (130th nationally).

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Carr

The freshman signal-caller has been stellar for Notre Dame through four starts, throwing for 1,091 yards and a 9-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio while completing 68.3% of his passes. He’s averaging a sensational 15.4 yards per completion, with a Total QBR of 88.4 and 11.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). Carr’s 53.3% passing success rate and 9.2 yards per dropback reflect his poise and efficiency in the pocket, though he has taken sacks on 6.3% of dropbacks despite being pressured on an astounding 30.4% of them. Carr has also contributed on the ground with 46 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, boasting a 63.6% rushing success rate despite a negative yards-before-contact average due to sack adjustments.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense

Notre Dame’s defense has been opportunistic and bend-but-don’t-break, ranking 28th in SP+ despite allowing a 42.9% success rate (94th) and a relatively high 5.58 yards per play (76th). The Irish struggle in standard downs efficiency (108th) and goal-to-go situations (122nd TD rate allowed) and have underperformed expectations in scoring defense (82nd in points per drive vs. 49th in scoring opp. PPG), despite being aided by a +5 turnover margin (16th). They rank 22nd in defensive back havoc rate and 14th in man-to-zone ratio yet have allowed a concerning 9.2 yards per dropback vs. zone (132nd), highlighting vulnerability in coverage. Despite limited pressure (119th in pressure rate), Notre Dame’s secondary excels at creating incompletions, ranking 28th in pass deflections per incompletion (PD to INC%).

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Bryce Young

Young has been a disruptive rotational pass rusher through five games, generating 9 pressures on 60 rushes for a 15.0% pressure rate—tied for highest on the team among defenders with 20+ pass rushes. He has notched 1.0 sack and 1 first pressure, with an average time-to-pressure of 3.27 seconds and excellent 21.4% third-down pressure rate. Young has also recorded 10 total tackles (5 solo), 2 tackles for loss, and 2 run stops while maintaining a perfect 100% tackle rate. Though he doesn’t yet have a forced fumble or turnover, his blend of efficiency and consistency in both phases makes him a complete edge defender that must be game planned for.

NC State Wolfpack

Head Coach: Dave Doeren
2025 Record: 4-2
Offense Ranking: 41
Defense Ranking: 66
Strength of Schedule: 46

The NC State Wolfpack have crafted a balanced identity via a big play-oriented offense (ranked 16th in marginal explosiveness) that averages 6.65 yards per play (25th nationally), while also producing a sparkling completion rate of 73.0% (7th). Defensively, the unit ranks 66th in SP+, buoyed by an impressive 8th-ranked rushing success rate allowed (31.8%) and a solid 18th-place defensive success rate overall (34.3%), though it struggles mightily in preventing explosive plays (132nd in marginal explosiveness allowed). The Wolfpack’s turnover margin has been costly, ranking 112th in actual TO margin (-4), despite expected turnover luck being nearly neutral (+0.2 PPG), contributing to a negative actual vs. projected scoring margin (-3.1 PPG). Special teams remain a liability (113th in SP+) and the remaining schedule is a gauntlet, but with a projected win total of 6.2 and an 86%-win probability over rival UNC in the finale, bowl eligibility is well within reach.

The NC State Wolfpack Offense

The NC State offense has been reasonably efficient, ranking 28th in EPA/play and 25th in yards per play (6.65), despite an underwhelming rushing success rate (94th) and one of the worst stuff rates nationally (134th). The Wolfpack excel through the air, boasting a 73.0% completion rate (7th), 10.2 ANY/A (37th), and a 0.29 EPA per dropback (24th), driven by a balanced passing scheme that favors intermediate throws (20.4% of passes at 11–19 air yards, 19th nationally). On standard downs, they produce chunk plays (23rd in SD marginal explosiveness) while converting 77.6% of their new sets of downs (34th), showing an ability to sustain drives. Their red zone offense is sharp—ranking 13th in red zone TD rate (79.2%)—but the ground game’s limited push before contact (0.92 YBC, 119th) remains a ceiling on their explosiveness.

NC State Player to Watch on Offense: RB Daylan Smothers

Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers has been the clear workhorse for NC State’s ground game, totaling 693 yards and 5 touchdowns on 100 carries for an impressive 6.93 yards per rush. While his success rate sits at a modest 42%, he still converts first downs on nearly a quarter of his runs (24%) and is explosive, generating 20% of his runs for 10+ yards. Smothers does much of his damage after contact, averaging 4.69 yards after contact per attempt with a team-best 0.35 missed tackles forced per carry. He’s also a reliable pass catcher out of the backfield, reeling in 21 of 22 targets (95.5% catch rate) for 124 yards and a score, largely on short routes and swing passes.

The NC State Wolfpack Defense

The Wolfpack defense has built a credible front seven that ranks 18th nationally in defensive success rate (34.3%) and an elite 8th against rushing success (31.8%), despite struggling to prevent chunk plays (132nd in marginal explosiveness allowed). Their third-down defense is inconsistent—great in short yardage (9th nationally in % of 3rd downs requiring 1-2 yards) but poor at preventing conversions in medium and long situations (110th and 115th, respectively). NC State’s pass defense allows a middling 6.1 yards per dropback (67th) and holds opponents to plays of 20+ yards 10.6% of the time (13th) but generates minimal disruption with a low overall havoc rate (118th) and few pass breakups (131st in PD-to-INC rate). Red zone defense remains a weakness at 71st nationally in red zone TD rate (61.1%) and 108th in goal-to-go TD rate, meaning opponents tend to finish drives once they reach scoring position.

NC State Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Sabastian Harsh

Harsh has been a core defensive contributor for NC State, posting 7 havoc plays in just 6 games, including 7.0 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. He’s been highly effective against the run with a strong 92.6% tackle efficiency and 70.8% of his tackles coming on rushing plays, notching 6 total run stops. As a pass rusher, Harsh has posted a solid 8.0% pressure rate while registering 11 total pressures and 11 first pressures. His consistent disruption and ability to convert pressure into negative plays makes him a cornerstone of the Wolfpack’s front seven.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. NC State Wolfpack team stats, betting trends

• North Carolina State has lost 13 of its last 20 games as a road underdog
• NC State is 3-3 ATS this season
• Notre Dame is 2-3 ATS this season
• Game Totals in NC State games are 4-2 to the OVER
• Game Totals in Notre Dame games are 4-1 to the OVER
• The overall series between these teams is tied at 2 wins apiece but the Irish have won the last 2

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): NC State OVER 17.5 Total Points

NC State has scored at least 21 points in all six of their games, and eclipsed the 33 point barrier in four of those contests. The highly efficient Wolfpack passing attack is completing 73% of their passes and faces a Notre Dame defense that ranks 102nd in passing success rate while allowing 20% of passes they defend to accrue 20+ yards. I think NC State is competent enough on offense to move the ball on ND and clear their current 17.5 points team total line.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Wolfpack and Fighting Irish:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the North Carolina State Wolfpack at +23.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 60.5.

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