NFL Win/Loss Preview Series: New England Patriots

Throughout this entire win/loss preview series I've incessantly stressed the importance of a solid mind-meld between the coach/coordinator and his quarterback. With that in mind, we haven't yet seen what McDaniels' fingerprints will mean on a Patriots' offense with the league's largest gap in expected 2025 wins (9-8) over 2024 finish (4-13). 

Easily one of the industry's most popular dark horses for a breakout season, can New England make a single year leap from proverbial worst to first?

PATRIOTS' WIN/LOSS ODDS:

• Over 5.5 Wins: (-550) // Under 5.5 Wins: (+420)
• Over 7.5 Wins: (-170) // Under 7.5 Wins: (+145)
• Over 8.5 Wins: (-105) // Under 8.5 Wins: (+125)
• Over 9.5 Wins: (+175) // Under 9.5 Wins: (-210)

Before beginning to dream on a 95th percentile outcome for New England, take an honest look at just how far they need to come to get there. Few teams if any were arguably worse than the Patriots on both sides of the ball combined — in fact, no other team finished botton-5 in each (image below).

Courtesy of trumedianetworks.com

Granted, a lot can change and most certainly will with the amount of movement going on in the NE locker room — I'm not trying to bury them before we even kickoff. Pats' "GM" Eliot Wolf was a busy beaver all Spring, adding impact free agent pieces throughout the roster — WR Stefon Diggs, DE Milton Williams, C Garrett Bradbury, RT Morgan Moses, OLB Robert Spillane, OLB Harold Landry, and CB Carlton Davis. NE also scored high draft grades for all three selections inside the top-70, each targeted to address very specific weaknesses: T Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, and WR Kyle Williams.

Again, there's a very clear bull case to be made for growth in Foxboro, especially if you look at Drake Maye's week-over-week EPA progression (image below). It's no coincidence NE brass decided to shove their chips all-in on a competitive window at least a year earlier than expected. 

However. improvement's not the goal — doubling a win total in a single calendar year is. 

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

New England's given us every reason to shift out of sell-mode into buying, I get it. Despite that, I still have my doubts there's nine wins in there — even with a "soft schedule" on the horizon. I use quotation marks because the AFC North and NFC South could make things harder on the Pats than we think. And what if the Jets and/or Dolphins surprise the market in-division? Point being, I'm taking the coward's route and riding the pine on New England's win total. Too many uncertainties for that high a leap.

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