7 hours ago 1

NFL Win/Loss Preview Series: Las Vegas Raiders

Will New Leadership Double Vegas' 2025 Win Total?

Much like any large building, a football team built on shaky foundations will only achieve certain heights. Owners of just a single winning record across eight seasons, the Raiders finally seemed to understand the assignment, completely overhauling the central pieces of the organization.

In a single offseason, Las Vegas installed a new time-tested Head Coach/Quarterback battery in Pete Carroll and Geno Smith — easily the most critical personnel combination in professional sports. But is it enough for the black and silver to double their year-over-year win total?

RAIDERS' WIN/LOSS ODDS:

Over 5.5 Wins: (-230) // Under 5.5 Wins: (+180)
Over 7.5 Wins: (+135) // Under 5.5 Wins: (-160)
Over 9.5 Wins: (+380) // Under 5.5 Wins: (-550)

The best place to start a difficult problem is the beginning — where even a summer filled with new faces can't completely erase the previous slate. No single stat's perfect, but understanding where a team lands on both sides of the ball regarding Expected Points Added (EPA) offers an extremely useful macro perspective.

According to last year's chart (image below), the Raiders probably would've gotten more attention for systemic rot on both sides of the ball if it weren't for the raging dumpster fire out in Cleveland. LV not only boasted the league's second-worst offense, but the defense finished in the negative as well. Hard to compete against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert without a carrying tool.

Granted, recent additions of impact players like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty will boost projections across the board. That said, there's a lot of work to do to rectify last season's bottom-tier macros (18.2 PPG, 4.8 yards/play, 42.5% success rate, -0.12 EPA/play). And it's not as if the finger of blame pointed solely at the offense — even the presence of game-wrecker Maxx Crosby couldn't lead the unit to impose its will (25.5 PPG, 43.3% success rate, 3.2 snaps/splash play, 29.6% pressure rate). Long story long, everywhere you look, there's lots of work to do.

It's not all doom and gloom in Sin City. One of Pete Carroll's hallmarks, namely a prescient approach to the draft, should instill confidence in a broad step forward for LV. The new skipper spread his draft capital around with five picks in the top-100, adding to the WR room (Jack Bech, 2.58) as well as the secondary (Darien Porter, 3.68) and O-line (Caleb Rogers 3.98, Charles Grant 3.99). Knowing Carroll, three of those four picks will end up playing every down.

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Even with my sky-high confidence in Pete Carroll and Geno Smith to build a winning culture eventually, betting's about price and timing. Sure, schedule makers gave Vegas a bit of a break by facing the NFC East and AFC South — I still can't find more than five wins on the schedule given the incredibly difficult division.

My bearish call fails if this crop of rookies exceeds expectations (like they did in Seattle) but at A ~36% implied probability, you can sign me up for RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 WINS (+180) on Fanduel.

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page. Don't be shy — DM me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.