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NFL offseason power rankings: No. 13 San Francisco 49ers try to forget a nightmare season

Nobody knew it at the time, but 90 minutes before the San Francisco 49ers' season began we got our first tip that everything was about to go wrong.

The 49ers, after a pretty clear manipulation of the injury report, declared Christian McCaffrey inactive for their Week 1 game. That surprised everyone, especially fantasy football managers waiting for their first-round pick to put up some points on Monday night. The 49ers said in the week leading up to the opener that McCaffrey's Achilles injury wasn't an issue. The reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year didn't play until Nov. 10 due to that injury.

The 49ers won their first game against the Jets without McCaffrey. But it was the first sign that San Francisco was going to have one of those seasons.

[Get more San Francisco news: 49ers team feed]

The 49ers led in overtime of the Super Bowl months before last season started. They saw the title slip away when Patrick Mahomes led a game-winning drive for the Kansas City Chiefs. That stung, but most of the roster was set to return. The 49ers were in position to get right back to a Super Bowl. They put out the one big fire of the offseason, a Brandon Aiyuk trade tour, when they used the Pittsburgh Steelers to set the market and signed Aiyuk to a huge extension. Everything seemed fine. And McCaffrey's injury wasn't a big deal, right?

Sometimes when things go bad in the NFL, they go really bad. The 49ers had the most games lost due to injuries in the NFL by a mile and nearly every position group was affected. The 49ers had the second-most adjusted games lost to injury on offense and the third-most on defense. McCaffrey played in just four games. Aiyuk tore his ACL. Close losses piled up. In a moment that summed up a spiraling season, linebacker De'Vondre Campbell refused to go back into a game against the Rams and then just left the sideline. When the 49ers lost by 28 points to the Packers and 25 points to the Bills in back-to-back weeks, they were 5-7 and effectively finished. A team everyone ranked among the top few in the NFL going into the season went 6-11.

And if the bad vibes ended when the season did, that would have been fine. They didn't. Deebo Samuel asked for a trade and was shipped to the Washington Commanders. The 49ers lost eight free agents who got at least $10 million per season elsewhere. Money talks in the NFL, which makes it easy to see San Francisco lost a lot of valuable players. Their three biggest free agent additions were all backups (tight end Luke Farrell, quarterback Mac Jones, receiver Demarcus Robinson) at low-cost contracts. The 49ers couldn't spend much because they were keeping the decks clear for Brock Purdy's five-year, $265 million extension, which was signed in May. Aiyuk's recovery from his knee injury seems to be going a bit slow and he could start the season on the physically unable to perform list. It was a horrible offseason for San Francisco.

And yet, the 49ers built such a deep, talented roster over the past few years that there's hope for this season. McCaffrey should be back. Purdy is an efficient master of Kyle Shanahan's offense. Other players like George Kittle, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are among the best in the NFL at their positions. Shanahan is one of the NFL's best coaches, and he made a good hire to bring Robert Saleh back as defensive coordinator. BetMGM has the 49ers with one of the highest win totals in the NFL, at 10.5, and it's justifiable. The 49ers had one of the unluckiest seasons possible, and that won't repeat. There's tremendous talent on hand.

It's just a bit tougher now. Those stars are a year older. The roster took some hits. We can't be sure if McCaffrey, at age 29, is further beyond his prime than we realize. Last year, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that San Francisco would be one of the best teams in the NFL. Going into this season, it's hard to know what the 49ers will be.

Offseason grade

The 49ers lost nine players who other NFL teams believed were worth more than $10 million per season: receiver Deebo Samuel, guard Aaron Banks, cornerback Charvarius Ward, offensive tackle Jaylon Moore, safety Talanoa Hufanga, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, outside linebacker Leonard Floyd and defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins. Samuel was traded to the Washington Commanders and the others were free agents. No matter how you want to explain the defections, that's a lot to lose in one offseason. And San Francisco didn't add a single impact free agent. The highest-paid free agent addition was tight end Luke Farrell (three years, $15.75 million) who fills a role as a blocking tight end and insurance in case George Kittle goes down, but it's hard to get too excited. A low-cost trade for pass rusher Bryce Huff, the Eagles' most expensive free agent addition last season (yes, he got more money than Saquon Barkley) after Huff didn't fit in Philadelphia could pay off. The draft didn't get good grades, but pass rusher Mykel Williams was a good value at No. 13 and defensive tackle Alfred Collins (second round) and linebacker Nick Martin (third round) should also help the front seven. When I graded each team's moves, I ranked the 49ers' offseason as the worst in the NFL.

Grade: D-

Quarterback report

Brock Purdy is now one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in NFL history. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The debate about whether the 49ers should pay Brock Purdy is over. Not that the team seemed to ever entertain the idea of not paying him. Purdy signed a five-year, $265 million contract with $182.55 million guaranteed. It's one of the great stories in sports, a former Mr. Irrelevant who now has the fifth-largest contract, in terms of total value, in NFL history.

The next question will be if the 49ers can build a roster around Purdy that can compete for championships. It's understandable why San Francisco wasn't going to let Purdy walk. He has been highly efficient running Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Last season Purdy did post career lows in passer rating, completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, touchdown rate and sack rate while delivering a career-high interception rate, but that can be attributed to the attrition around him. However, with Purdy taking up a lot of the salary cap going forward, he'll have to get used to not being surrounded by a stellar supporting cast.

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The era of Brock Purdy being the best QB contract value in the league is over, as Purdy signed his long-awaited extension this offseason. Is the Super Bowl window closing for the 49ers? Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga are gone, but San Francisco has easiest schedule of any team by opposing win total — which helps explain a seemingly high win total of 10.5 at BetMGM. The 49ers are favored in a staggering 15 games this season and in the two games they’re underdogs, it’s only by 1.5 points each. The 49ers are +160 favorites in the NFC West (ahead of the Rams at +185) and -180 favorites to make the postseason. But can they get back to the Super Bowl? They're 20-to-1 to win it all, tied for the seventh shortest odds."

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: "The market doesn't know what to do with Christian McCaffrey this year, and I understand. He's currently the RB6 in Yahoo ADP, typically going in that 10-13 range overall. McCaffrey has missed more than half the season in three of his past five years, but in his last four healthy seasons, he's been the RB3, RB1, RB2 and RB1 in basic fantasy scoring. It's ironic that McCaffrey played just four games last year while most of the other signature backs in the league were shockingly healthy. Bottom line, McCaffrey is the biggest boom-or-bust pick in the league. Do you feel lucky?"

Stat to remember

In the 49ers' final two games last season, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings were laying the groundwork for the 2025 season. They combined for 28 catches, 329 yards and two touchdowns in those final two games. Each of them caught at least six balls in each game. That could be a preview of what's to come.

Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a major knee injury. When he'll return and how good he'll be when he does get back is a mystery. Deebo Samuel is gone. George Kittle is one of the NFL's best tight ends and if Christian McCaffrey is healthy he'll get plenty of touches, but the 49ers offense also has to feature Pearsall and Jennings more, especially early in the season. Pearsall was a 2024 first-round pick whose rookie season got off to a slow start after he was shot in the chest during an attempted robbery. He looked good late. Jennings has generally played well when given the opportunity, and last season he had 975 yards and six touchdowns despite starting just 10 games. Pearsall and Jennings should be able to produce early in the season, and if Aiyuk rebounds to his pre-2024 form the 49ers might have one of the best receiver groups in the NFL.

Burning question

Can Robert Saleh boost the 49ers defense?

When Robert Saleh got the New York Jets head coaching job, it was mostly because his defenses in San Francisco were outstanding. The 49ers had a top seven defense in DVOA in Saleh's final two seasons in San Francisco, and while he didn't succeed running the Jets, his defenses were among the NFL's best after a tough first year. Saleh might do well in his second head coaching job — he's far from the first coach to not overcome a ridiculously bad Jets situation — but he didn't land a top job this past offseason. It made sense for Saleh and the 49ers, who fired defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen after one season in that role, to reunite for his second stint running the team's defense.

The 49ers are undergoing a makeover on that side of the ball. They are projected to have four new starters on defense, and it could be five if rookie Nick Martin beats out Dee Winters at inside linebacker. Saleh is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL and he's a great fit to guide San Francisco through its transition, even if it's just for the short term before he gets another shot to be a head coach.

Best case scenario

A Kyle Shanahan offense with Brock Purdy distributing the ball to Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and (eventually) Brandon Aiyuk should be very good. The defense will look different but has All-Pro talent with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and Robert Saleh is a proven defensive coach. Seeing the betting market have the 49ers among the top win totals and best Super Bowl odds might be startling after they went 6-11 and had a rough offseason. But bad luck factors like injuries and a 2-6 record in one-score games that sank the 49ers last season won't repeat and the top-end talent on the roster is undeniable. Also, the 49ers go from the second-toughest schedule in the NFL last season (via DVOA) to one that is projected to be by far the easiest (via Sharp Football Analysis, which uses betting win totals to determine strength of schedule). If everything that went wrong last season does a 180 and goes right this season, the 49ers could win the Super Bowl. That remains their upside.

Nightmare scenario

The 49ers' roster is more top-heavy after many solid players left this offseason. Trent Williams will be 37 this season, George Kittle will turn 32 in October and Christian McCaffrey is 29, which isn't young for a running back. If those three Hall of Fame talents slip at once, the offense will suffer, especially if Brandon Aiyuk doesn't bounce back strong from a torn ACL. Some projections believe the 49ers could have a bottom-10 defense, after it struggled badly down the stretch and lost talent in the offseason. Great NFL teams have an expiration date. Championship windows don't stay open forever. The 49ers can blame injuries for last season's collapse, but it's also possible we saw the first signs of a very strong roster falling to the middle of the pack. If the 49ers miss the playoffs again, the next step will be figuring out whether their core is capable of a rebound or if it's time to blow it up. It would really hurt to say goodbye to this group without it ever winning a Super Bowl.

The crystal ball says

The 49ers were one of the toughest teams in this countdown to figure out. A Super Bowl championship is in their range of outcomes. We also saw a significant downturn last season, and they had the worst offseason of any NFL team. Star players like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams and others become harder to project due to injuries or age. The 49ers will rebound from last season's nightmare, but not all the way to being one of the NFL's elite teams. There are too many variables to predict that to happen. They will be an NFC West contender, and that race against the Rams could come down to the final week of the season. Which side of the division race the 49ers fall on could go a long way in determining their future course.

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