New York's Arch Manning Dream Isn't Dead Just Yet

For the vast majority of New York Giants fans, the summer will be spent debating the merits of first-round quarterback Jaxson Dart, sharing his highlights, and worrying if each training camp interception is the one that seals his fate.

For the remainder, Dart is little more than a bump in the road to the ultimate prize, the prodigal son that is Texas quarterback Arch Manning.

Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, has long been a pipe dream for the New York faithful. That dream, despite the Dart selection, is not dead.

That’s a declaration that demands several disclaimers. Primarily, Giants fans shouldn’t be worried about any of college football’s finest passers. For better or worse, Dart is the quarterback of New York’s future. How long that future lasts is yet to be seen, but with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s unlikely that Dart sees much playing time in Year 1.

That inherently takes the Giants out of the running for a quarterback early in the 2026 NFL Draft (barring a true disaster). And yet, those Manning holdouts are unperturbed.

Manning, despite the immense hype, is far more likely to declare for the 2027 NFL Draft. He has just two starts to his name – neither against real competition – and is incredibly unproven. There’s upside in his profile, sure, but with millions in NIL money waiting for him and a strong supporting cast, staying at Texas and competing for a championship makes more sense than accelerating into his NFL career to play for a bad team.

Likewise, the earliest New York would realistically move on from Dart is following the 2026 campaign, giving him a year to play after his redshirt season and head coach Brian Daboll one last opportunity to keep his job. If Dart flops, Daboll will follow, allowing New York to hit the reset button and coach and quarterback in one offseason.

Those timelines align, meaning Manning’s talent and the Giants’ (mis)fortune keep that door open.

With that said, Manning still has a ton to put on film before he’s taken seriously as a Round 1 passer, and even Dart’s critics would be getting ahead of themselves by suggesting such a quick hook. First-round quarterbacks frequently get second chances, and it may be more likely that he becomes a multi-coach killer than one of the quicker quarterback burnouts in recent memory. Throw in the other teams vying for a top-pick passer in 2027 and those stars aligning become even more improbable.

Manning’s chances of landing in New York are on life support – but they’re not dead yet. Even so, Giants fans are much better off rallying around the rookie quarterback already in the building than holding out hope for a prospect who may never sniff East Rutherford.