NCAA College Football Week 3 Best Bets: Florida vs LSU, Clemson vs Georgia Tech, Alabama, Georgia, OSU, More!

Week 2 was one to remember! It was a monster weekend at 8-3 +5.73 units, including 8-0 +8.51 units for articles plays! Bounce back week complete! Let’s run it back for a winning Saturday in Week 3.

On the slate, Florida goes to LSU, Clemson visits Georgia Tech, Alabama hosts Wisconsin, and my best bet is a player prop on Peacock in Ohio and Ohio State, plus so much more.

There are 10 plays total this week! There is a lot to like, in my opinion. As always, best of luck and follow on X for live bets!

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!

Florida at LSU (-7.5): O/U 48.5

The LSU offense hasn’t show much of anything and hasn’t sniffed 30-plus points in a game (17, 23) despite being the third-ranked team in the country. For Florida, they scored 16 points in a loss versus South Florida last week, so neither offense has cooked yet.

LSU and Florida’s offenses rank 118th and 129th in plays per second, as they have taken their time to say the least. DJ Lagway is averaging 6.7 yards per completion, while Garrett Nussmeier hit 5.8 and 6.1 in his first two games. Neither team is getting explosive plays downfield often or attempting to stretch it.

I think Florida is live to get the upset,I played them at +9.5, but at +7.5 it’s more of a half-unit play. Fading LSU’s Team Total of 30.5 (-155) down to 29.5 (-135) is the best bet.

Pick: LSU Team Total Under 29.5 (1 unit)

Clemson (-3.5) at Georgia Tech: O/U 54.5

I think Georgia Tech is live to beat Clemson after everything we’ve seen from this Tigers team in two games. Clemson struggled to make plays downfield versus LSU and were down 16-3 at the half to Troy last week looking lifeless before a second-half comeback.

The Tiger rank 50th in plays per second, but that increased drastically after the Tory game since they were playing from behind. Tech is 92nd in plays per second, so I expect a lower-scoring game with the road team on upset alert. Cade Klubnik averaged 6.1 yards per completion against LSU, threw an interception in both games, and Clemson had 1.6 yards per carry versus LSU followed up with 3.9 versus Troy.

You can’t trust the Clemson offense right now. I’d go down to 28.5 for Clemson’s Team Total but prefer the 29.5 (-125) or 30.5 (-140).

Pick: Clemson Team Total Under 29.5 (1 unit)

Georgia (-3.5) at Tennessee: O/U 49.5

The Georgia Bulldogs haven’t been tested yet, while Tennessee’s defense is overrated and has taken a significant step back from last year, plus they are down two cornerbacks!

Georgia’s won eight straight meetings versus Tennessee, but the spread went from -7 to -3.5 for the Bulldogs. This is upset potential and likely a high-scoring game. The Vols offense ranks 11th in plays per second and Georgia hasn’t had to quick yet (82nd vs Marshall, Austin Peay) mostly because of weather delays, so I think the Over has value.

While the Bulldogs offense hasn’t been efficient, Tennessee allowed 26 points to Syracuse and 17 to East Tennessee State. This is not the same Vols’ defense from a year ago. I played Over 48.5 at -115, which is now -122 and -130 — 49.5 is a go for +100 to -110.

Pick: Georgia vs Tennessee Over 48.5 (1 unit)

Utah (-23.5) at Wyoming: O/U 48.5

I truly don’t understand how Utah is only laying -6.5 in the first quarter or -23.5 for the game?

Akron took Wyoming into the fourth quarter and it was a 3-0 ballgame in favor of the Cowboys. Akron went out and lost 68-0 versus Nebraska the following game. Utah should dominate this Wyoming team from start to finish.

I will risk 2 units on the Utes first quarter spread at -6.5 at -140 odds. If Wyoming scores or holds Utah without a touchdown to lose this bet, I will be live betting Utah in the first half or second quarter. There is nothing that suggest Utah doesn’t blow Wyoming out.

Pick: Utah 1Q -6.5 (Risk 2 units), Utah -23.5 (1 unit)

Parker Navarro O/U 128.5 Passing Yards at Ohio State

I honestly was so shocked to see this line that I had to contact Eric Froton and confirm this is nonsense. While Arch Manning struggled against Ohio State finishing with 170 yards and a minuscule 26 in the first half — 128.5 yards is just too low for Parker Navarro.

With a 31.5 spread, the Bobcats will be trailing and likely abandon the run. Navarro can run himself, and has a 29.5 rushing prop line — a line he crushed with 87 and 93 yards against Rutgers and West Virginia, but OSU played Manning, so they’re ready for a mobile QB.

Navarro tossed 239 yards at Rutgers and 247 versus WVU and surpassed the 128.5 passing prop line in 14 of the past 15 dating back to last year. I have to go Over 128.5 Passing Yards (-114) up to 134.5 because the running game will be limited and expected.

Pick: Parker Navarro Over 128.5 Passing Yads (2 units)

Ty Simpson O/U 247.5 Passing Yards vs Wisconsin

Ty Simpson Under 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Wisconsin

Ty Simpson was awesome versus UL Monroe going 17-for-17 226 yards with three passing touchdowns. Everything was all potatoes and gravy in Week 2, but you won’t have the same game script required versus Wisconsin, a P4 opponent, and there is a bye week on deck next week — so getting in and getting out healthy will be a focus.

Alabama has a road game at Georgia to follow the bye week, and while Wisconsin’s rush defense has look superior against Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee, I believe they get a reality check with Alabama, so I played Simpson Under 247.5 Passing Yards at -114 odds and Under 1.5 Passing TDs at +136 odds — run the damn ball!

Pick: Ty Simpson Under 247.5 Passing Yards (1 unit), Ty Simpson Under 1.5 Passing TDs (1 unit)

Central Michigan at Michigan (-27.5): O/U 41.5

Sherrone Moore will coach Michigan all week during practice, but on game days it’ll be Biff Poggi as he serves his two-game suspension. I’m not worried about Michigan being without a head coach as they had plenty of experience with that in the last three years.

Looking at CMU, offensively, I am not sure what they will do and neither do they. The Chips used three different quarterbacks last game in a 45-17 loss at Pitt, so they are experimenting. On the other side, CMU couldn’t stop Pitt whatsoever (464 total yards), making this a prime tuneup game for Bryce Underwood who has upped the tempo from 30.7 seconds per play last year (4th-slowest nationally) to 26.9 seconds (68th).

I like Michigan to cover the first quarter spread of -6.5 at -140 and -155 odds. Michigan will have a game script to score early and I think Underwood has the leash taken off.

Pick: Michigan 1Q -6.5 (1 unit)

South Florida at Miami (-17.5): O/U 56.5

South Florida will have another challenge ahead of itself when they face their third-consecutive ranked opponent. Fatigue will likely set in for the Bulls, but I expect a competitive first quarter where both teams don’t reach the end zone.

South Florida and Florida combined for three possessions in the first quarter whereas against Boise State, the Bulls and Broncos had five combined drives with one touchdown.

For Miami, they ended the first quarter 0-0 versus Notre Dame with three punts, a fumble, and a turnover on downs that followed that fumble. The Hurricanes rank 113th in plays per second (29.5), while the Bulls are 29th (24.1).

I don’t trust Miami completely in the first quarter, but I do trust the defense and the Hurricanes to slow the game down. I played the first quarter under 13.5 at -118 odds. I’d take my chances for a 0.5 unit and +100 or better at 12.5.

Pick: Miami vs South Florida 1Q Under 13.5 (1 unit)

Season Overall Record: 11-8 (57.8%) +3.06 units | 15.14 ROI%
Game Picks Record: 9-7 (56.2%) +2.27 units
Player Props Record: 2-1 (66.6%) + 0.79 units

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!

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